So apparently the fundamental attribution bias may not really exist: "The actor-observer asymmetry in attribution: a (surprising) meta-analysis"_ActObs_meta.pdf), Malle 2006. Nor has Thinking, Fast and Slow held up too well under replication or evaluation (maybe half): https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-train-wreck-how-priming-research-went-of-the-rails/
I am really discouraged about how the heuristics & biases literature has held up since ~2008. I wasn't naive enough back then to think that all the results were true, I knew about things like publication bias and a bit about power and p-hacking, but what has happened since has far exceeded my worst expectations. (I think Carl Shulman or someone warned me that the H&B literature wouldn't, so props to whoever that was.) At this point, it seems like if it was written about in Cialdini's Influence, you can safely assume it's not real.
At this point, it seems like if it was written about in Cialdini's Influence, you can safely assume it's not real.
How well has the ideas presented in Cialdini's book held up? Scarcity heuristic, Physical attractiveness stereotype, and Reciprocity I thought were pretty solid and hasn't come under scrutiny, yet at least.
Time-reversal heuristic: if the failed replication had come first, why would you privilege the original over that? If the replications cannot be trusted, despite the benefit of clear hypotheses to test and almost always higher power & incorporation of heterogeneity, a fortiori, the original cannot be trusted either...
I moved the Rational Politics Project to Gleb's drafts because the discussion seemed insufficiently good.
Elo requested that I post this comment about spamming from (I take it) Landmark Forum participants in "the next Open Thread". (Perhaps in order to remind him to perform some sort of moderator-hammering on them.) So here we are. (Linking to it seemed like a better idea than copying its text.)
I don't know what to think about Ego Depletion. When I first read about it, it felt quite intuitive and the research on it was robust. It came up everywhere I read. Then the whole replication crisis thing happened and serious doubts were cast on it. I updated towards a weaker effect.
I haven't given it much thought since, until I was recently reminded of the study about mental fatigue on parole board judges and how chances of granting parole were greatest at the beginning of the work day and right after a food break(replenish mental resources).
If Ego...
PSA: There currently isn't a way to edit the URL of a linkpost. (Be careful when submitting one!) If you get it wrong, resubmit with the right link and get a mod to delete the incorrect post.
Another math problem. Enjoy it!
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/yet-another-math-problem/
I have the same question as this OP. I didn't think any of the answers were helpful enough. Basically everything I could find regarding Assange's asylum with Ecuador stems from the threat of Sweden extraditing him to the U.S., however the threat of politically motivated deportation remains regardless of what happens in Sweden; the U.K. can just as well do it.
Are people here is interested in having a universal language, and have strong opinions on esperanto?
I know we had some discussion of "real names" here a few weeks ago, here is an overview of the recent, relevant study on that, by the Coral Project.
"People often say that online behavior would improve if every comment system forced people to use their real names. It sounds like it should be true – surely nobody would say mean things if they faced consequences for their actions?
Yet the balance of experimental evidence over the past thirty years suggests that this is not the case. Not only would removing anonymity fail to consistently improve ...
Has anyone 'clicked' yet? Read it through as an exercise to do, it's too long to paste here.
Question: Regardless of the degree to which this is true, if everyone collectively assumed that Valence Utilitarianism (every conscious experience has value (positive or negative, depending on pleasantness/unpleasantness), each action's utility is the sum of all value it causes / changes / prevents) was universally true, how much would that change about Friendly AI research?
Well he says this is how he is and he think it's likely those who have 'clicked' become similar
It would be intesting to see if it works. I mean, if people from Athene's circle become youtube celebrities themselves (not just props in his videos) or start winning poker tournaments, that would be evidence for this hypothesis.
But generally, people often have ideas about what "made them the way they are", and it's typically something like "positive thinking" or "never giving up", which is an example of survivor bias, because it ignores the thousands of people who started with same level of positive thinking and not giving up, but didn't achieve the same results.
What I mean is that "clicking" may be a good description of how Athene feels inside, but that doesn't necessarily make it the component that makes a difference.
anecdotal testimonies
I looked at a few examples, but they seem to be testimonies of people who "clicked" and it made them happy, at least for the time it took them to write the comment. Making people happy is a nice thing, but there are many other ways how to achieve that.
Also, in general, when people try something new that promises to improve their lives, they usually feel happy, regardless of whether that promise is true or not. You would probably get similar testimonies for many self-improvement activities.
The summary is that I don't want to discourage you from experimenting with something you believe is great; just giving you feedback why the same thing may seem completely unimpressive from outside. The exercise makes (some) people feel really good -- that's nice, but some of us already have other preferred ways to make ourselves feel good. The exercise is also supposed to have other good consequences -- and here the evidence feels quite unconvincing to me.
...It would be intesting to see if it works. I mean, if people from Athene's circle become youtube celebrities themselves (not just props in his videos) or start winning poker tournaments, that would be evidence for this hypothesis. But generally, people often have ideas about what "made them the way they are", and it's typically something like "positive thinking" or "never giving up", which is an example of survivor bias, because it ignores the thousands of people who started with same level of positive thinking and not giving
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
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