So apparently the fundamental attribution bias may not really exist: "The actor-observer asymmetry in attribution: a (surprising) meta-analysis"_ActObs_meta.pdf), Malle 2006. Nor has Thinking, Fast and Slow held up too well under replication or evaluation (maybe half): https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-train-wreck-how-priming-research-went-of-the-rails/
I am really discouraged about how the heuristics & biases literature has held up since ~2008. I wasn't naive enough back then to think that all the results were true, I knew about things like publication bias and a bit about power and p-hacking, but what has happened since has far exceeded my worst expectations. (I think Carl Shulman or someone warned me that the H&B literature wouldn't, so props to whoever that was.) At this point, it seems like if it was written about in Cialdini's Influence, you can safely assume it's not real.
At this point, it seems like if it was written about in Cialdini's Influence, you can safely assume it's not real.
How well has the ideas presented in Cialdini's book held up? Scarcity heuristic, Physical attractiveness stereotype, and Reciprocity I thought were pretty solid and hasn't come under scrutiny, yet at least.
Time-reversal heuristic: if the failed replication had come first, why would you privilege the original over that? If the replications cannot be trusted, despite the benefit of clear hypotheses to test and almost always higher power & incorporation of heterogeneity, a fortiori, the original cannot be trusted either...
I moved the Rational Politics Project to Gleb's drafts because the discussion seemed insufficiently good.
Elo requested that I post this comment about spamming from (I take it) Landmark Forum participants in "the next Open Thread". (Perhaps in order to remind him to perform some sort of moderator-hammering on them.) So here we are. (Linking to it seemed like a better idea than copying its text.)
I don't know what to think about Ego Depletion. When I first read about it, it felt quite intuitive and the research on it was robust. It came up everywhere I read. Then the whole replication crisis thing happened and serious doubts were cast on it. I updated towards a weaker effect.
I haven't given it much thought since, until I was recently reminded of the study about mental fatigue on parole board judges and how chances of granting parole were greatest at the beginning of the work day and right after a food break(replenish mental resources).
If Ego...
PSA: There currently isn't a way to edit the URL of a linkpost. (Be careful when submitting one!) If you get it wrong, resubmit with the right link and get a mod to delete the incorrect post.
Another math problem. Enjoy it!
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/yet-another-math-problem/
I have the same question as this OP. I didn't think any of the answers were helpful enough. Basically everything I could find regarding Assange's asylum with Ecuador stems from the threat of Sweden extraditing him to the U.S., however the threat of politically motivated deportation remains regardless of what happens in Sweden; the U.K. can just as well do it.
Are people here is interested in having a universal language, and have strong opinions on esperanto?
I know we had some discussion of "real names" here a few weeks ago, here is an overview of the recent, relevant study on that, by the Coral Project.
"People often say that online behavior would improve if every comment system forced people to use their real names. It sounds like it should be true – surely nobody would say mean things if they faced consequences for their actions?
Yet the balance of experimental evidence over the past thirty years suggests that this is not the case. Not only would removing anonymity fail to consistently improve ...
Has anyone 'clicked' yet? Read it through as an exercise to do, it's too long to paste here.
Question: Regardless of the degree to which this is true, if everyone collectively assumed that Valence Utilitarianism (every conscious experience has value (positive or negative, depending on pleasantness/unpleasantness), each action's utility is the sum of all value it causes / changes / prevents) was universally true, how much would that change about Friendly AI research?
No one has provided any actual evidence that this "clicking" thing is beneficial.
There is no evidence, but our current understanding of the brain and empirical evidence is at least giving some hints to how to falsify or prove it, and whether it is beneficial or not. Now, anecdotes long-term (time will tell) is quite some evidence on the benefits side. They might be lying, so achievements which we can view from a 3rd perspective is reasonable. Of course there is not many resources now to conduct a study, maybe try and track productivity before-and-after in some objective way in subjects interested in clicking. If that even is possible. But anecdotes + achievements seems good enough.
Beneficial for you, is very subjective. You might not think that lower blood flow to the DMN is beneficial, even if the opposite is correlated with depression, if it turns out that it does lower blood flow to the DMN, like meditation or SSRI's. For example.
Your sales pitch here pattern-matches strongly to, e.g., the sort of thing I have had religious people say to me. "Just have faith and join our religion with your whole heart and mind for a year, and then see what you think at the end! Is that so much to ask?". (Answer: duh, yes it is.)
Have faith and join our religion with your whole heart and mind, you'll critically think for yourself for the first time in your life and you'll feel great! There is no one to join, here take this A4 paper with instructions. We haven't verified it with neuroimaging or science, but people say it's a great exercise! Oh by the way, we can't verify it with neuroimaging or science since no one cares, like you! You won't take the A4 paper! But when the day comes when we inhale nanorobots, you're fine to let go of everything you thought was you!
gjm forgets about it and moves on, in fact the objective reality has its say at the end of the day. They all talk of the singularity yet are incapable of understanding what it really means for them.
What evidence there is available to us suggests that "clicking" is cognitively harmful because it seems to turn people into quasi-religious zealots who think they are supremely logical while actually being willing to believe important things strongly on the basis of grotesquely insufficient evidence.
That's a question of instrumental, not epistemic rationality. Tell me what I believe as you seem to have already made up your mind. Whether there is insufficient evidence or not is subjective, not objective. Objective evidence takes time and resources, would you like me to do that instead? If so, why don't you want to help? Do it you as well! How do you know whether something is worth pursuing or not, if it is not "insufficient evidence"? We'll be able to research it together and I can ask questions how to do it.
And I do not think anyone here is much inclined to trust you, given how consistently you are behaving like a snake-oil salesman.
No, you can trust someone with a proven track record instead.
our current understanding of the brain and empirical evidence is at least giving some hints to how to falsify or prove it
That's nice, but you're asking us to mess with our brains now in the hope that the benefits or harms may become testable some time in the future.
you'll critically think for yourself for the first time in your life and you'll feel great!
Saying this does not enhance your credibility, any more than it helps (some) Christians' credibility when they tell people they are Totally Depraved and can do no good without the Christian god. You...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
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