So apparently the fundamental attribution bias may not really exist: "The actor-observer asymmetry in attribution: a (surprising) meta-analysis"_ActObs_meta.pdf), Malle 2006. Nor has Thinking, Fast and Slow held up too well under replication or evaluation (maybe half): https://replicationindex.wordpress.com/2017/02/02/reconstruction-of-a-train-wreck-how-priming-research-went-of-the-rails/
I am really discouraged about how the heuristics & biases literature has held up since ~2008. I wasn't naive enough back then to think that all the results were true, I knew about things like publication bias and a bit about power and p-hacking, but what has happened since has far exceeded my worst expectations. (I think Carl Shulman or someone warned me that the H&B literature wouldn't, so props to whoever that was.) At this point, it seems like if it was written about in Cialdini's Influence, you can safely assume it's not real.
At this point, it seems like if it was written about in Cialdini's Influence, you can safely assume it's not real.
How well has the ideas presented in Cialdini's book held up? Scarcity heuristic, Physical attractiveness stereotype, and Reciprocity I thought were pretty solid and hasn't come under scrutiny, yet at least.
Time-reversal heuristic: if the failed replication had come first, why would you privilege the original over that? If the replications cannot be trusted, despite the benefit of clear hypotheses to test and almost always higher power & incorporation of heterogeneity, a fortiori, the original cannot be trusted either...
I moved the Rational Politics Project to Gleb's drafts because the discussion seemed insufficiently good.
Elo requested that I post this comment about spamming from (I take it) Landmark Forum participants in "the next Open Thread". (Perhaps in order to remind him to perform some sort of moderator-hammering on them.) So here we are. (Linking to it seemed like a better idea than copying its text.)
I don't know what to think about Ego Depletion. When I first read about it, it felt quite intuitive and the research on it was robust. It came up everywhere I read. Then the whole replication crisis thing happened and serious doubts were cast on it. I updated towards a weaker effect.
I haven't given it much thought since, until I was recently reminded of the study about mental fatigue on parole board judges and how chances of granting parole were greatest at the beginning of the work day and right after a food break(replenish mental resources).
If Ego...
PSA: There currently isn't a way to edit the URL of a linkpost. (Be careful when submitting one!) If you get it wrong, resubmit with the right link and get a mod to delete the incorrect post.
Another math problem. Enjoy it!
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/yet-another-math-problem/
I have the same question as this OP. I didn't think any of the answers were helpful enough. Basically everything I could find regarding Assange's asylum with Ecuador stems from the threat of Sweden extraditing him to the U.S., however the threat of politically motivated deportation remains regardless of what happens in Sweden; the U.K. can just as well do it.
Are people here is interested in having a universal language, and have strong opinions on esperanto?
I know we had some discussion of "real names" here a few weeks ago, here is an overview of the recent, relevant study on that, by the Coral Project.
"People often say that online behavior would improve if every comment system forced people to use their real names. It sounds like it should be true – surely nobody would say mean things if they faced consequences for their actions?
Yet the balance of experimental evidence over the past thirty years suggests that this is not the case. Not only would removing anonymity fail to consistently improve ...
Has anyone 'clicked' yet? Read it through as an exercise to do, it's too long to paste here.
Question: Regardless of the degree to which this is true, if everyone collectively assumed that Valence Utilitarianism (every conscious experience has value (positive or negative, depending on pleasantness/unpleasantness), each action's utility is the sum of all value it causes / changes / prevents) was universally true, how much would that change about Friendly AI research?
No, I'm not saying "if it didn't work for ingive it can't be any good". There are of course other kinds of evidence and many of them are better. It just happens that you don't have those either, and in the absence of anything resembling objective evidence the usual fallback of the evangelist is their own personal experience -- but you don't have even that.
It sounds so funny to me that you're comparing me to an evangelist, shall I call you the same? gjm the evangelist preaching he is not religious to something, such as comfort, family or social validation How you feel about it, I feel the same. Regarding the absence of objective evidence, no it's not a matter of evidence, it's a matter how much evidence you require. I can give you all the evidence in the world and you'll still not convert, because it's subjective. I don't need more evidence based on my own knowledge and experience, however, that does not rule out the pursuit of evidence or falsifying. Takes time, money, etc. Might as well gather the low hanging fruit and if a few high IQ people convert without adequate proof, it'll be faster to either falsify or prove depending on themselves.
(You keep talking about neuroimaging studies. Are you claiming that there are neuroimaging studies that show that this "clicking" thing (1) can be achieved by the methods claimed and (2) is beneficial? I'd be awfully surprised if so. I can't escape the feeling that you are just repeating those words because they sound impressively scientifical and you are hoping your audience will be impressed. There are probably places where that works, but I wouldn't expect it to be terribly successful around here.)
Indeed I do sir. (1) Unfortunately, it costs a lot to do studies, also neuroimaging. (2) How does neuroimaging tell you whether something is beneficial or not, you can note the correlations of brain activity (or lack thereof)? I would be posting it all over the place if that was the case and everyone would be clicking left and right. Now I just post the exercise all over the place but no one wants to click.
I'm repeating those words because that's the as-objective-of-a-measurement I think you can get. In the context of my post however, I do not exclude what I know of it when it comes to religion, religious and/or mystical experiences, and especially reward activation and reward systems of abstract concepts in for example the orbitofrontal cortex. When it comes to if it's worthwhile to try the exercise or not, or discuss it with others. I'm glad you asked. There is a reason why people go to chuch, because they are rewaaarded. Why not be rewarded by positive expected value tasks? ("there is a lack of evidence") you say. Yet how did churchgoers attach their reward centers to prayer in the first place? Or how does the brain and behavior even work? If you figure that out. You'll realize pretty soon by emotionally submitting yourself to your true creator, the consistent patterns that bring us about, for example, mathematics, you'll have what you wanted and you'll see it everywhere.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
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