I've been finding it hard to understand why my team-mates haven't been updating to, maybe not 100%, but at least 99%; and how one wouldn't see these as the only answers worth considering. At any point in the past few weeks, to state your probability as 85% or 91% (as some have quite recently) was to say, "There is still a one in ten chance that the Syrian conflict will suddenly stop and all these people will go home, maybe next week?."

GJP has pointed out already that forecasters are not updating as fast as they could. I assume a lot of forecasters are like me in rarely updating their predictions.

(In season 2, out of distaste for the new UI, I've barely been participating at all.)