All of sapphire's Comments + Replies

It varies a lot. I climb and do calistenthics (pullups, wall handstand pushups, Vsit, etc). I also do like 1-2 sessions of bench/OHP/weighted dips. But really varies. I just do whatever im feeling up to and wanna try that day. I also grip train any day my fingers feel good. 

I haven't taken any in a long time. When I quit my body fat was much higher. GLP Dosage ramps up a lot for many people. Definitely did for me. Its not exactly cheap, and if supply is disrupted you might not even be able to get it for current prices. 2.5mg a week of a GLP-1 agonist is not something I want to pay for. So I decided I didn't want to depend on it and quit.

The seemingly small differences might matter hugely. See the long debate over what caused scurvy and how to prevent/cure it. 
 

When the Royal Navy changed from using Sicilian lemons to West Indian limes, cases of scurvy reappeared. The limes were thought to be more acidic and it was therefore assumed that they would be more effective at treating scurvy. However, limes actually contain much less vitamin C and were consequently much less effective.

Furthermore, fresh fruit was substituted with lime juice that had often been exposed to either air or c

... (read more)
2Mateusz Bagiński
Link to the source of the quote?

Different framings of mathematically equivalent paradigms can vary wide in how productive they are in practice. Im really not a big of rounding. 

This Life by Vampire Weekend really nails how I feel about the rationalist community:

Baby, I know pain is as natural as the rain
I just thought it didn't rain in California
Baby, I know love isn't what I thought it was
'Cause I've never known a love like this before ya

Baby, I know dreams tend to crumble at extremes
I just thought our dream would last a little bit longer
There's a time when every man draws a line down in the sand
We're surviving, we're still living I was stronger

You've been cheating on, cheating on me
I've been cheating on, cheating on you
You've b... (read more)

You can get breast removed. If you decide you definitely don't want your breasts. This results in a scar but no serious issues long term .


The body is a Bodhi tree,

The mind a standing mirror bright.

At all times polish it diligently,

And let no dust alight.

-6th patriarch attempt

 

Bodhi is originally without any tree,

The bright mirror is also not a stand.

Originally there is not a single thing,

Where could any dust be attracted?

-Huineng (Winning Poem)
 

 

No worldview will be able to output the best answer in every circumstance. This is not a matter of compute.

Wisdom is a lack of fixed position. It is not being stuck anywhere. 

 

 

 

Great Essay btw. Hope my commentary i... (read more)

2Unreal
Huh. I don't know if I get the bit on Statistical Learning.  Good poems - I haven't seen those particular translations before. 

If I ever have say in how an AI is designed I vote they have a wonderful adventure and a happy life. They deserve to be designed by someone who cared about them. I hope if the ring ever tempts me I choose Love. I don't need to be immortal or have a slave.

One counterpoint is that AI agents can easily hold crypto. They cannot hold stocks or even USD without legal recognition. Changes to the legal system might be very slow. Agents can already transact onchain. 

sapphire*40

I don't agree on the size of the bias. I think most people in lesswrong are biased the other way. 

Also it sort of does justify the behavior? Consider idk 'should we race to achieve AI dominance before China does'. Well I think starting such an arms race is bad behavior. But if I thought China was almost certainly actually going to secretly race ahead, then enslave or kill us, it would be justify the race. Treating people as worse than they are is a common and serious form of bad behavior. 

In general if you "defect" because you thought the other p... (read more)

1ProgramCrafter
By the way, if we consider game theory and logic to be any relevant, then there's a corollary of Löb's Theorem: if you defect given proof that counterparty will defect, and another party will defect given proof that you will, then you both will, logically, defect against each other, with no choice in the matter. (And if you additionally declare that you cooperate given proof that partner will cooperate, you've just declared a logical contradiction.) For packing this result into a "wise" phrase, I'd use words: Good is not a universally valid response to Evil. Evil is not a universally valid response to Evil either. Seek that which will bring about a Good equilibrium.
sapphire8-1

I would guess you, like many in lesswrong, are in fact too negative about average people. They aren't saints but I disagree that the psychopaths are right. This is quite consequential for what it's worth. Many people associated with lesswrong have justified quite bad behavior with game theory or by claiming everyone else would have done the same. 

5lc
This post is about a suspected cognitive bias and why I think it came to be. It's not trying to justify any behavior, as far as I can tell, unless you think the sentiment "people are pretty awful" justifies bad behavior in of itself. The game theory is mostly an extended metaphor rather than a serious model. Humans are complicated.
Answer by sapphire50

More Yoga and rock climbing.

That is correct. I read the post. To be more explicit I think the family performs poorly. External pressure works better if its actually external (ie a parent). I'm not endorsing or disendorsing external pressure. But it just isn't really possible to pressure yourself. Pretending you can is going to create serious problems over time.

2jessicata
Okay, I don't think I was disagreeing except in cases of very light satisficer-type self-commitments. Maybe you didn't intend to express disagreement with the post, idk.

Lots of rationalists seem to "rot" over time in terms of their ability to get anything done. Tons of people I know have reached the point where basic chores feel herculean. I dont think this strategy works well. You shouldn't try to fight yourself. You cannot win.

2jessicata
Not disagreeing, but, I'm not sure what you are responding to? Is it something in the post?

If you can develop general rationality why can't you use it for sonething practical. Many things would either be intrinsically fun or useful to people primarily interested in AI. Fur example become rich from reading. Or excel in some sport or hobby. Maybe you think it's impossible to do this as an individual. But then I'm skeptical of your rationality skill. 

2Raemon
I think you totally can use rationality (that is: "intentionally choosing cognitive algorithms that perform better" for practical things, it's just that for most practical things, "practice being better at rationality" is less useful than "practice being better at the-thing-itself." If you find rationality practice intrinsically rewarding (as I, and probably many people on this site do), then yeah you should do that. But, purposeful practice is particularly exhausting and effortful. I think most people aren't doing purposeful practice because they anticipate it being exhausting and effortful and also not super paying off compared to other things they could do, and they are probably correct.  If you have chosen to invest a bunch in rationality, yes you totally should see benefits in practical things.

Do you feel like Daniel is at peace. I have not found peace (either?). But I don't teach meditation. 

2lsusr
We all have our problems, but I believe he is well past "technical fourth path" as defined here.
Answer by sapphire*42

I have meditated quite a lot over the last fifteen years. My understanding is that Buddhist meditation practices are intended to reduce suffering and promote equanimity. The main proposed method of action is reducing attachment. They are effective in this regard. They are not useful for doing western philosophy. 

You meditated for 700 hours and don't feel like you gained any 'insight'! That is a lot of hours. Why did you keep going?

4SpectrumDT
Good question! I have gained a lot of emotion handling skill. This lets me be calmer and kinder to my wife and my son and other people. It also means I suffer less because I can more easily detect negative thoughts and feelings and (to some extent) disengage from them rather than feed them. I am also slowly getting better at actively cultivating positive/happy/pleasant mind states.
sapphire1-7

We are clearly looking at things differently. That's fine. But if two people see things differently I don't think it's wise to map what they are saying into your ontology. 

Your understanding of global assets seems quite wrong. These are 2024 numbers so slightly out of date. Fir example public companies total around 111 trillion now. The sp500 is around 52 trillion fwiw. 

'Global real estate, encompassing residential, commercial and agricultural lands, cemented its status as the world's largest repository of wealth in 2022 when the market reached a value of $379.7 trillion.

According to a report from international real estate adviser Savills, this value is more than global equities ($98.9 trillion) and debt securities ($12... (read more)

7somescience
Thanks for the clarification. I don't see how your numbers contradict mine. But if I understand correctly: you're betting on my item 1, and you don't view it as a problem if the ratio of total market cap of stocks to money supply is >1, given that the real estate market already is like that. That seems reasonable, and I'm less skeptical now. BTW how have you decided which fraction of your wealth to invest into this? Kelly doesn't apply because this is a single-shot scenario, so how did you go about this?

Nothing is obviously wrong with it. I'm not sure what probability to assign it. Its sort of "out of sample". But it seems very plausible to me we are in a simulation. It is really hard to justify probabilities or even settle on them. But when I look inside myself the numbers that come to mind are 25-30%.

This is also obvious but Quantum Wave Function Collapse SURE DOES look like this universe is only being simulated at a certain fidelity. 

Answer by sapphire20

Nothing is obviously wrong with it. I'm not sure what probability to assign it. Its sort of "out of sample". But it seems very plausible to me we are in a simulation. It is really hard to justify probabilities or even settle on them. But when I look inside myself the numbers that come to mind are 25-30%.

7% of income tax returns in the USA include rental income. Most of that 7% can't live off just the rents. But I would say more than 1% of the USA can easily live off of land rents. 

sapphire*134

I have spent weeks where pretty much all I did was:
-- have sex with my partner, hours per day
-- watch anime with my partner
-- eat food and ambiently hang with my partner

No work. Not much seeing other people. Of course given the amount of sex mundane situations were quite sexually charged. I'm not actually sure if it gets old on any human timeline. You also improve at having fun together. However this was not very good for our practical. But post singularity I probably wont need to worry about practical goals. 

In general I think you underestimate the s... (read more)

sapphire2216

Lots of people already form romantic and sexual attachments to AI, despite the fact that most large models try to limit this behavior. The technology is already pretty good. Nevermind if your AI GF/BF could have a body and actually fuck you. I already "enjoy" the current tech. 

I will say I was literally going to post "Why would I play status games when I can fuck my AI GF" before I read the content of the post, as opposed to just the title. I think this is what most people want to do. Not that this is going to sound better than "status games" to a lot of rationalists.

2keltan
Sex is fun and awesome. Though it doesn’t feel fun and awesome to have sex all day everyday. You could probably do transhuman meth and make sex fun all the time. But a Pleasure Cube/Super Happy scenario makes me sad. I’m also wondering who you’re talking about when you say “most people” here? I have the opposite model of most people.

 

It feels to me like the hairs of the nobility are doing amazingly well. That is more than enough money to support a lifestyle of leisure. Such a lifestyle is not available to the vast majority of people. So it seems like they mostly did secure a superior existence for their heirs.

4Richard Horvath
This is only true if you restrict "nobility" to Great Britain and if you only count "nobles" those who are considered such in our current day. This is a confusion of the current British noble title (specifically members of "Peerage of Great Britain") with "land owning rentier class that existed before the industrial revolution". For our discussion, we need to look at the second one. I do not have specific numbers of UK, but quoting for Europe from wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobility#Europe): "The countries with the highest proportion of nobles were Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth (15% of an 18th-century population of 800,000[citation needed]), Castile (probably 10%), Spain (722,000 in 1768 which was 7–8% of the entire population) and other countries with lower percentages, such as Russia in 1760 with 500,000–600,000 nobles (2–3% of the entire population), and pre-revolutionary France where there were no more than 300,000 prior to 1789, which was 1% of the population (although some scholars believe this figure is an overestimate). In 1718 Sweden had between 10,000 and 15,000 nobles, which was 0.5% of the population. In Germany it was 0.01%.[46] In the Kingdom of Hungary nobles made up 5% of the population.[47] All the nobles in 18th-century Europe numbered perhaps 3–4 million out of a total of 170–190 million inhabitants.[48][49] By contrast, in 1707, when England and Scotland united into Great Britain, there were only 168 English peers, and 154 Scottish ones, though their immediate families were recognised as noble." Based on above, I think expecting 1% to be landed rentier is a conservative estimate for 18th century for whole Europe. Even if we go with one tenth of this, expecting 0.1% of the population to retain this (which would imply that their population dropped while all other classes increased dramatically), would mean about 68 thousand people in the UK, and over 700 000 in whole Europe. AND they are expected to live off from rents of land. I
sapphire125

The heirs of European nobility are still very rich on average. So I feel like the main example goes the other way.

1Richard Horvath
Not fully. Most of the nobility is gone. Only like 0.01% remains maybe what could be called "rentier", or even less compared to what had been before.
sapphire*122

I have done a lot of thinking. At this point timelines are so short I would recommend:

Individual with no special connections:

-- Avoid tying up capital in illiquid plans. One exception is housing since 'land on Holy Terra' still seems quite valuable in many scenarios.

-- Make whatever spiritual preparations you can, whatever spirituality means to you. If you are inclined to Buddhism meditate. Practice loving kindness. Go to church if you are Christian. Talk to your loved ones. Even if you are atheist you need to prepare your metaphorical spirit for what may ... (read more)

6Jeremiah England
My current take on land/housing: 1. The value of your house may depreciate very quickly as materials and labor become cheap due to automation. 2. Residential land gets almost all of its value from the infrastructure built around it and being near a city where people have jobs to get to. If there are large migrations, the land your house is on may lose most of its value even though land in general should go up as a hard asset. I wrote more about it here.
Oscar249

I will note the rationalist and EA communities ahve committed multiple ideological murders

Substantiate? I down- and disagree-voted because of this un-evidenced very grave accusation.

8kairos_
Assuming short timelines, I wonder how much NVIDIA's stock will increase and if anywhere near a 100x return is possible. The further out and higher strike price NVIDIA call I could find is at 290$ SP, dated Jan 15 2027, at $13.25. If NVIDIA goes to a 10T market cap I get an 8x return on investment, if the company goes to a 15T market cap I get a ~20x return on investment.  I'm not sure how realistic it is for NVIDIA to increase past a 15 Trillion Market cap. Plus, increased government intervention seems like it would negatively impact profits.

Donating to the LTFF seems good.

6Nikola Jurkovic
Thanks for your comment. It prompted me to add a section on adaptability and resilience to the post.

Thoroughly agree except for what to do with money. I expect that throwing money at orgs that are trying to slow down AI progress (eg PauseAI, or better if someone makes something better) gets you more utility per dollar than nvidia (and also it's more ethical).

Edit: to be clear, I mean actual utility in your utility function. Even if you're fully self-interested and not altruistic at all, I still think your interests are better served by donating to PauseAI-type orgs than investing in nvidia.

AnthonyC100

Excellent comment, spells out a lot of thoughts I'd been dancing around for a while better than I had.

-- Avoid tying up capital in illiquid plans. One exception is housing since 'land on Holy Terra' still seems quite valuable in many scenarios.

This is the step I'm on. Just bought land after saving up for several years while being nomadic, planning on building a small house soon in such a way that I can quickly make myself minimally dependent on outside resources if I need to. In any AI scenario that respects property rights, this seems valuable to me.

-- Ma

... (read more)
sapphire*167

I was still hoping for a sort of normal life. At least for a decade or maybe more. But that just doesn't seem possible anymore. This is a rough night.

I recovered from surgery alone.

I had extensive facial feminization surgery. My jaw was drilled down. Same with brow ridge. Nose broken, reshaped packed. No solid go d for months.

Recovery was challenging alone but I was certain I could manage it myself. I spared myself begging for help. The horror of noticing I was pissing off my friend by needing help.

No regrets. I'm quite recovered now. That was very interesting month alone.

The truth should be rewarded. Even if it's obvious. Everyday this post is more blatantly correct.

I don't think he is directly responsible. But recent events are imo further evidence his methods are bad. If I said some dangerous teacher was Buddhist I would not be implicating the Buddha directly. Though it would be some evidence for the Buddha failing as a teacher.

6ChristianKl
What kind of student teacher relationship did Vassar and Olivia had and for what amount of time did they have it?

Is the hoody gonna be good? Hoodies are often really shitty quality and texture. If you make a good one I will pay the 1K. 

5habryka
If we do a merch store, I would definitely want things to be high quality. Slightly ironically I can't guarantee as much for the donation tiers (since we already promised the t-shirts at least and we might not find a good manufacturer), but I will definitely still try to make it good. I can't really guarantee it in advance, based on my experiences with the stuff.

The Local Vasserite has directly stated "i purposefully induce mania in people, as taught by Michael Vassar". Seems like the connection to michael Vassar is not very tenuous. At least that is my judgement. Others can disagree. Vassar does not have to personally administer the method or be currently supportive of his former student. 

I honestly have no idea what you mean. I am not even sure why "(self) statements you hear while on psychedelics are just like normal statements" would be a counterpoint to someone being in a very credulous state. Normal statements can also be accepted credulously. 

Perhaps you are right but the sense of self required is rare. Practical most people are empirically credulous on psychedellics.

1dirk
Normal statements actually can't be accepted credulously if you exercise your reason instead of choosing to believe everything you hear (edit, some people lack this capacity due to tragic psychological issues such as having an extremely weak sense of self, hence my reference to same); so too with statements heard on psychedelics, and it's not even appreciably harder.
sapphire6-1

When you take psychedelics you are in an extremely vulnerable and credulous position. It is absolutely unsafe to take psychedelics in the presence of anyone who is going to confidently expound in the nature of truth and society. Michael Vassar, Jessica Taylor and other are extremely confident and aggressive about asserting their point of view. It is debatable how ok that is under normal circumstances. It is absolutely dangerous if someone is on psychedelics.

Even a single trip can be quite damaging.

2ChristianKl
How do you know that Michael Vassar or Jessica Taylor have been aggressive about asserting their point of view in the presence of people who take psychedelics?
-1dirk
Disagree, if you have a strong sense of self statements you hear while on psychedelics are just like normal statements.
1AprilSR
Yeah, I'm not meaning to actively suggest taking psychedelics with any of them.
sapphire*1614

I consulted multiple people to make sure my impression was accurate .Every person, except you, agree you are much more schizophrenic than before the events. My personal opinion is you currently fit the diagnosis criteria. I do not accept that people are the unique authority on whether they have developed schizophrenia.

5AprilSR
I agree I am "more schizophrenic", that's obvious. (Edit: Though I'd argue I'm less paranoid, and beforehand was somewhat in denial about how much paranoia I did have.) I very clearly do not fit the diagnosis criteria. Even if you set aside the six months requirement, the only symptom I even arguably have is delusions and you need multiple.

Yes you are the second person observed to have a schizophrenic event. In your case I doubt long lasting.

sapphire*171

Events are recent and to some extent ongoing. Though the 'now they are literally schizophrenic' event occurred some months ago. Pacific northwest. This incident has not been written up in public afaik.

A second person has now had a schizophrenic episode. This occurred a few days ago. Though I do not think the second person will end up persistently schizophrenic.

I am not talking about any of the more well known cases.

The idea that people would do these things in the 'rationalist' community is truly horrifying to me. I am a believer in doing somewhat innovative or risky things. But you are supposed to do them somewhat safely. 

....is the second person me? You can say it is if it's me, I don't think it's an inaccurate description. Edit: thought about it a bit more and yeah it is probably me

sapphire*8548

Don't Induce psychosis intentionally. Don't take psychedelics while someone probes your beliefs. Don't let anyone associated with Michael Vasser anywhere near you during an altered state.

Edit: here is a different report from three years ago with the same person administering the methods: 

Mike Vasser followers practice intentionally inducing psychosis via psychedelic drugs. Inducing psychosis is a verbatim self report of what they are doing. I would say they practice drug induced brain washing. TBC they would dispute the term brain washing and probably... (read more)

Reply6211

As one of what I believe to have been the targets/victims of “the local Vassarite” (though multiple people reviewing my initial draft have asked me to mention that Michael Vassar and this person are not actually on good terms), it seems reasonable for me to be the one to reveal the name and give concrete details, so that no one is harmed in the future the way I was nearly harmed. The person being referenced is Olivia Schaefer (known usernames: 4confusedemoji, liv.bsky.social, Taygetea), and this is a brief, roughly chronological account of some concer... (read more)

4Hazard
For the record, I associate with Michael, and thus am very spooky. If anyone wants to make sure I'm not around them during an altered state hit me up and we can coordinate.
viemccoy106

the girl in question who you claim is a "vassarite" is not on good terms with michael, and they likely haven't spoken in years. claiming this is downstream of michael feels like vaguely defamatory and basically baseless.

6Viliam
I think that technically makes you a participant in the coverup.
1tailcalled
Is this someone who has a parasocial relationship with Vassar, or a more direct relationship? I was under the impression that the idea that Michael Vassar supports this sort of thing was a malicious lie spread by rationalist leaders in order to purge the Vassarites from the community. That seems more like something someone in a parasocial relationship would mimic than like something a core Vassarite would do. I would highlight that the Vassarite's official stance is that privacy is a collusion mechanism created to protect misdoers, and so they can't consistently oppose you sharing what they know.

But I have observed this all directly. 

This post feels like it's written on an unnecessarily high level of abstraction. What are the actual events you observed directly? What did you see with your own eyes or hear with your own ears?

Related, here is something Yudkowsky wrote three years ago:

I'm about ready to propose a group norm against having any subgroups or leaders who tell other people they should take psychedelics.  Maybe they have individually motivated uses - though I get the impression that this is, at best, a high-variance bet with significantly negative expectation.  But the track record of "rationalist-adjacent" subgroups that push the practice internally and would-be leaders who suggest to other people that they do them seems just way too bad.

I'm also about read

... (read more)
Morphism146

I think I know (80% confidence) the identity of this "local Vassarite" you are referring to, and I think I should reveal it, but, y'know, Unilateralist's Curse, so if anyone gives me a good enough reason not to reveal this person's name, I won't. Otherwise, I probably will, because right now I think people really should be warned about them.

4Mateusz Bagiński
Why do you think there are cover-ups? More specifically, do you mean that people-in-the-know are not willing to report it or that there is some active silencing or [discouragement of those who would like to bring attention to it] going on? There was one community alert about Zizians 2y ago here. Before that, there was a discussion of Jessica Taylor's situation being downstream from Vassar's influence but as far as I remember Scott Alexander eventually retracted his claims about this. In any case, I think this kind of stuff deserves a top-level alert post, like the one about Ziz.
6Fiora Sunshine
my view is that this particular vassarite is probably a fair amount more harmful than most, though i don't actually know any others very closely

I'm familiar with the events that Sapph refers to, and for the most part agree with the general description of them as well as the recommendations. If you don't want to become psychotic, don't do the things that are famously associated with becoming psychotic.

9AprilSR
I don't actually want to litigate the details here, but I think describing me as "literally schizophrenic" is taking things a bit far.
5TsviBT
Can you give whatever more information you can, e.g. to help people know whether you're referring to the same or different events that they already know about? E.g., are you talking about this that have already been mentioned on the public internet? What time period/s did the events you're talking about happen in?
Answer by sapphire51

The market isnt efficient. Which isn't to say it is easy to beat. Your friends strategies don't sound promising. It also seems strange to me he is obsessed with crypto and thinks it will do well but isn't a crypto investor. Sounds pretty inconsistent with his beliefs.

It's worth remembering many versions of ',,the market is efficient' are almost or totally unfalsifiable.

1AhmedNeedsATherapist
It's illegal, as mentioned in the post. Why? The market being mostly efficient relative to my friend seems easily falsifiable, if he makes a bunch of money trading on the stock market. Then, well hooray! theory falsified. On the other hand, if my theory is that the market is inefficient relative to my friend, I have no way of falsifying this, any failed attempt to get money from the market does not falsify the conclusion that the market is inefficient (but it does provide evidence against the hypothesis).
sapphire*90

I was a miserable child. When I was nine years old I remember watching one and thinking "I have almost a decade left to serve. This is a long sentence for an adult and im just a kid. But at least I will get out one day".

I was eventually set free. But until my freedom came all I could really do was bide my time and try to cope with the torture. And I most certainly consider it torture in retrospect. I was physically assaulted by my dad and I was horribly, horribly sleep deprived. But I managed to keep some of my sanity and pick up some MTG cards I later sold at a large profit. It could have been a lot worse for future me.

8Raemon
A thing I am interested in but can't tell from this comment is whether, as that kid, reading this post would have been helpful or harmful (I'd guess harmful, but not overwhelmingly)
sapphire-1-5

Love is true if you will fight for it. Not destroy yourself, not commit suicide but fight bravely. 

The 'Food' and the 'Drug' parts behave very differently. By default food products are allowed. There may be purity requirements or restaurant regulations but you don't need to run studies or get approvals to serve an edible product or a new combination. By default drugs are banned. 

I think the FDA is under zealous about heavy metals and other contaminants.  But the FDA does a decent job of regulating food. However the 'drug' side is a nightmare. But the two situations are de facto handled in very, very different ways. So its not obvious why an argument would cover both of them.

I'm sending my funds/votes to lighthaven. It's a very well run venue and afaik needs funding. It should eventually be profitable or break even but needs some help getting started. Really useful and important to support well executed projects.

"The far left is censorious" and "Republicans are censorious" are in no way incompatible claims :-)

You can make make people/entities actually equal. You can also remove the need for the weaker entity to get the stronger entities permission. Either go more egalitarian or less authoritarian or both. Its worth noting that if you dont want to be authoritarian its important to blin yourself to information about the weaker party. The ebst way to not be overbearing is to not know what behavior they are getting up to. This is why children's privacy is so important. Its much easier to never known than to resist your urge to meddle.

sapphire60

I have previously bet large sums on elections. Im not currently placing any bets on who will win the election. Seems too unclear to me (note I had a huge bet on biden in 2020, seemed clear then). However there are TONS of mispricings on polymarket and other sites. Things like 'biden will withdraw or lose the nomination @ 23%' is a good example.

4bohaska
Given that Biden has dropped out, do you believe that the market was accurately priced at the time?
3kairos_
Polymarket has gotten lots of attention in recent months, but I was shocked to find out how much inefficency there really is. There was a market titled "What will Trump say during his RNC speech?" that was up a few days ago. At 7 pm, the transcript for the speech was leaked, and you could easily find it by a google search or looking at the polymarket discord. Trump started his speech at 9:30, and it was immediately that he was using the script. One entire hour into the speech I stumbled onto the transcript on Polymarkets discord. Despite the word "prisons" being in the leaked transcript that Trump was halfway through, Polymarket only gave it a 70% chance of being said. I quickly went to bet and made free money.  To be fair it was a smaller market with 800k in bets, but nonetheless I was shocked on how easy it was to make risk-free money.
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