All of Dorikka's Comments + Replies

Thank you for this post! One feedback - I found this post much harder to navigate than your other posts (and eventually resorted to summary+bookmark); it is much easier for me to parse/navigate when post sections follow your own line of thinking than when they are structured as replies to sections of other peoples' posts.

i have worn this on an airplane with a surgical mask over the exhale valve

https://www.amazon.com/GVS-SPR457-Elipse-Respirator-Medium/dp/B013SIIBFQ/ref=sxts_rp_s1_0?cv_ct_cx=gvs+elipse+p100&gclid=CjwKCAiAzrWOBhBjEiwAq85QZyLzBYwxwOZcFGAMZbn4S6OVwxcQXnl1L6L9xWu1dQgzAFdKK8oxOhoCqo0QAvD_BwE&hvadid=409918312011&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9014238&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=6118992613772945421&hvtargid=kwd-267611734495&hydadcr=20509_11115072&keywords=gvs+elipse+p100&pd_rd_i=B013SIIBFQ&pd_rd_r=03b1c070-7191-4557-b0bb-79b3930... (read more)

Without knowledge of potential interactions, melatonin might be another option - I don't take bupropion, but suspect that one would take daily dose in morning to minimize chance of this side effect as well

Thanks for this as always! Any thoughts on the variant effectiveness estimates in this paper?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1.full-text

The initial pfizer efficacy study and followups in Israel specifically come to mind.

Potential metrics which may be helpful to consider (from a previous location search for me to live): Minimum sunlight per month, months under 200 hrs of sunlight, days above 90F, days below 32F, snow/rain days per year, violent crime level, property crime level, number of internet providers, average speed test result of internet providers, top advertised speed of internet providers, quality of healthcare, attends religious services at least once per week, rate of cigarette use, rate of alcohol use, rate of binge drinking.

Some of these are direct metrics on... (read more)

Great, thank you

Would love any context here - not sure if I should parse the linkpost as random person on internet saying things or if any background that would give me a higher prior that their models are accurate and/or useful.

Fluvoxamine is a prescription drug in the FDA, so your doctor can prescribe it; https://www.pushhealth.com/ might work as well. Antiviral procurement is similar if the antiviral you're seeking is a US prescription drug (in any case I'd consider Googling the antiviral name.)

Apologies in advance for not engaging in detail with the analysis itself - my overall synthesis here is that residual risk does exist post-vaccination and is potentially non-negligible. Personally I'll be using my Oura ring to detect nighttime temperature spikes and use a high-accuracy at-home test (https://checkit.lucirahealth.com//) if I detect a spike, followed by aggressive treatment with fluvoxamine (+potential antiviral) if the test comes back positive - these safeguards feel sufficient to travel (airplane) to see family, etc without incurring signif... (read more)

I'm curious if anyone knows of research comparing effectiveness of this to povidone iodine nasal spray? I make a 0.8% solution of that and use it in nose and gargle before going out (in addition to mask)

ebay

Thank you both! Zvi - makes sense re short duration of increased interest and effective to capitalize on it while that lasts. Rob - the part I'm not seeing is the causal link between these posts and influencing/improving decisions made by the FDA and CDC.

Out of curiosity, how come the strong speed premium on these posts? AFAICT there's nothing here that informs short-term decisions for readers; I've been skimming and mostly tossing into my to-read pile for that reason. Know I'm not exactly an important stakeholder here, but personally I'd sorta prefer to read the synthesis from a chat between yourself and Scott rather than the blow-by-blow.

You can even send them actual N95s https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kdkFnRnZv4ut5qGhR/?commentId=RaLK7uGHynTdny6Zf#RaLK7uGHynTdny6Zf

Thanks - this is super helpful! Wanted to quickly mention in case helpful for calibration - higher quality protection equipment has been available for quite some time given sufficiently dedicated searching; full face respirators were available on Amazon near the beginning of the pandemic; N95 masks and P100 filter cartridges have been reliably available via eBay.

This post is awesome info as arrival time and price are both superior to pre-existing options, but just wanted to mention the above as an update-point: if folks truly believed that this PPE was not purchasable (albeit at a higher price point previously), might be worth updating in the direction of "most things can be purchased on the internet."

As always, a huge thanks to Zvi for the synthesis. I'm posting a comment similar to last week's meeting to consolidate information regarding treatment, as it's a topic that will remain very relevant to many of us for a while.

I continue to follow the guidance provided in the link Zvi previously posted (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-treatment-for-Covid-19) - I would love if anyone has better next actions specifically re treatment than those listed in the Quora response.

My current main selfish takeaway from this is that given the new strain and likely properties of it, I and my loved ones will likely get infected (whereas in the previous world I estimated our precautions as sufficient to prevent infection.)

Hence my main thoughts turn to treatment. I am currently acting on the recommendations provided in the link Zvi previously posted (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-treatment-for-Covid-19) - I would love if anyone has better next actions specifically re treatment than those listed in the Quora response.

Thanks for the info! Two questions:

1. The linked article indicated that 10% solutions were widely available on Amazon, and links this one, but doesn't seem to give any indication why he picked that one in particular - just wanted to check if you might have seen this reasoning somewhere/if it exists.

2. I'm not familiar with Chris Masterjohn - his web page looks like he's a content creator trying to leverage his Nutritional Science PhD into being seen as knowledgeable about a wide variety of things - is this human known to say true and useful things?

Thanks Zvi, these are super informative!

Use of povidone-iodine as mouthwash and nasal spray looks promising as prophylaxis (and potentially treatment, but lower confidence on that.) The study Zvi linked (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2770785#ooi200049r25) appears to be the latest in discussions occurring in otolaryngology since April (https://www.google.com/search?q=povidone+iodine+nasal+spray&oq=pobidone&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j35i39l2j0l2.2542j0j4&client=ms-android-att-us&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8). ... (read more)

Would also love your thoughts on this one I posted a while back if convenient - not sure if I'm thinking about this one correctly or not: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GoBBmmKzvT8XFwE8g/do-nasal-decongestants-increase-risk-associated-with

Thanks for this, super helpful! Is NAC something to start taking when feeling symptomatic or something to start taking way ahead of time (like vitamin D)? Re indomethacin, it sounds like this is something that it would be worth getting a prescription of when feeling symptomatic (assuming it's not a controlled substance or something similarly difficult for a doctor to prescribe) - wanted to feedback this to you to make sure I'm understanding correctly.

Thanks. I haven't used liquid products much before. Anything you've noticed that's significantly different in terms of onset time, effect duration, etc?

Anyone know where I can find melatonin tablets <300 mcg? Splitting 300 mcg into 75 mcg quarters still gives me morning sleepiness, thinking smaller dose will reduce remaining melatonin upon wake time. Thanks.

Surely, as rationalists, we should

So awkward it hurts that this is even a thing.

Thanks for noting this.

Aren't new open threads usually posted on Mondays? Today is the 27th, not 28th.

404: Generalized model not found

Any particular evidence in favor of this approach, anecdotal or otherwise?

Seem to be implying that you are more likely to be in a simulation if historixcally impt. Interesting

No other source, but keep in mind that helmets are tuned for a certain force level. Too durable and helmet does not reduce peak force as it does not crush. Too weak and it crushes quickly, again with little reduction in peak force. This should just empasize to use the 25% number here though since the forces are more representative.

Redacting "won't do much of anything" except as implied by 25%, but keep in mind that if peak accelerations are much higher than the given case, the helmet will be less effective due to the above. This may or may not be the case in car crashes depending on speed.

Interesting - thanks for checking this. If the Severity Index is claiming no significant damage below 1200, I think it may be incorrect or may have a different criterion for severe damage. Some helmet standards seem to be fairly insensitive, only accounting for moderate or severe brain injury whereas MTBI can have long lasting effects. Yes, I discount Severity claims as the metric does not appear to give reasonable results. 188g is a crapload of linear acceleration, but metric puts it under threshold...I dont buy it, so am left to judge on peak linear accel instead (shame that rotational accel was not measured...)

The data is posted above, unlikely to get around to Dropboxing it so I can link (as it was from an email). I agree with you re body movement in a vehicle collision. However, at some point your body would stop. If your head hit something while your body was in motion, thr impacted object would likely have enough strength to bring the head to an abrupt halt. (Contrast with a knife being punched through paper mache - I would expect the force on the lnofe to be much lower than if hitting concrete, as it would go through the paper mache without much velocity change.)

I am curious about your terminal goal here.

shrug The pdf for sincerity looks bimodal to me.

This is the most tantalizing thread on the page.

What is this, and why is it here?

(Original response was remarkably vehement, rather like I found a pile of cow dung sitting on my keyboard. Interesting.)

Thanks. How does one go about learning more about this, preferably while encountering minimal bullshit on the way?

Thanks for posting this. Just a quick note, many of the things listed above I would consider may be "common" terminal values, not goals. Might just be a wording thing, but I think of goals as instrumental, with values propagating to actions via the hierarchy values->strategies->campaigns->goals->actions.

Convergent instrumental goals might be an interesting collection as well.

A few nutrition-related questions:

• Why does Soylent 2.0 have so much fat? They appear to be going for 45% of calories from fat, whereas the typical recommendation is 10%-35%.

• Why does the Bulletproof stuff include so much saturated fat? It appears that the consensus is that saturated fat significantly increases blood cholesterol and arterial plaque formation - curious why such a deviation here.

Personal experience that it is useful or just from the indirectly linked papers?

Also, note that it may potentiallly insta-fuck your liver.

A few nutrition-related questions:

• Why does Soylent 2.0 have so much fat? They appear to be going for 45% of calories from fat, whereas they typical recommendation is 10%-35%.

• Why does the Bulletproof stuff include so much saturated fat? It appears that the consensus is that saturated fat significantly increases blood cholesterol and arterial plaque formation - curious why such a deviation here.

Thanks for writing this. A few notes:

• I find Evernote to be an exceptionally great notetaking app.

• If you end up using Google Calendar, I like Smooth Calendar as a widget that shows a few appts and lets you click through to the full calendar.

• I previously had an S4, now an S5. I use the InvisibleShield Glass screen cover - people seem to keep finding ways to damage the glass on their phone screen, so the durable cover might pay dividends. (And already did on my S4, when I dropped it about a meter onto slate. I currently have a BodyGlove phone case.

• I a

I haven't heard of psuedoephedrine having nootropic effects before - what have you heard? (On a related note, it mostly makes me unable to sleep. :( )

Lower threshold on safe doses of lead and other contaminants for frequent and infrequent consumption. Mostly just wanted to check if you knew of any such guidelines that you considered sane. :P

Got it. Do you know of a sane set of guidelines that I can reference?

Citations not really necessary, but would like to know why you have that opinion. I don't know much about contaminant quantities.

How do the California guidelines compare to other recommendations?

What topics might you be able to teach others about?