Will Russia invade only eastern Ukraine or the rest of Ukraine as well?
Zvi, I would love to see you making an analysis of Brazil and I'd compare it to my own thinking and calibrate myself on my own predictions. I strongly believe you are currently the best at what you're doing and I would be grateful if you spent at least some time reasoning about our situation here and making some predictions.
I would like to see different voting systems on different posts, so we could try them out and report back on how each one allows us to express what we think about those posts.
I don't like a single 5-star rating system, but I would love multiple 5-stars in different categories. For example, we could choose to give 5 stars for each of these categories you pointed out: clarity, interestingness, validity/correctness, informativeness, friendliness.
If we had a single 5-star rating system, and suppose I read a post that was completely clear and interesting, but w...
After reading this post, I decided to send a message to Gurkenglas.
This was the best decision I made. I have been developing a mobile software for the last 120 days, and this is my first experience developing something this big. Sharing my screen on Discord, he was able to:
- Completely change my debugging workflow, which is likely to save me hundreds of hours in the long-term
- Teach me a new testing ritual
- Make it easier to identify useless pieces of code
- Refactor hundreds of lines with simple intuitions and good regex
- Teach me dozens of useful keyboard...
I had a similar experience. Gurkenglas is legit.
Hey younger version of me, start reading LW now, start programming now, study more statistics, go deeper on math.
lol, your first paragraph described exactly the discussion I had with a friend less than one month ago... and you wrote the exact question he made me.
“So you want people to sit at home all day and collect free money?”
On my mind, I had "Yes. I want this. For everyone. Not just money. I want to give everyone all the resources they need to fulfill their lives. I'm trying to discover how"
I wonder why ended up dodging the question; yes, +1 for star-manning. I like the concept.
Please, I love this discussion, I super upvoted and if you have any new thoughts about NFTs I would like to hear you talking about. Did you get any new information or have you updated your thoughts about NFTs? I am completely fascinated on how this is even possible, people caring so much about useless maps, and the territory has become "it is super valuable to have a map that tells which of the two perfect copies of a territory arrived first", or people are just pretending for the sake of playing the game in which allows you to speculate on the value of us...
I really like the approach from Tournesol and I was wondering a way to improve the rating system.
Not only I would like to rate a video, but sometimes I would like to dispute the rating given by another user.
Suppose I am a seller on AliExpress. I have been selling a 4.8 star product for a year.
Suddenly I receive a new and rare one star rating. The rating goes like this:
"User123: I waiting the product to arrive, can't wait to see it. When it arrives I will update the rating"
This is not uncommon. A good proportion of ratings happen without a...
I believe that many people will take COVID to their relatives during Christmas and the New Year, and I'm seriously thinking about starting some campaign to make people aware that they should at least this time consider wearing a mask for the next weeks and also stop socializing without a mask during this period in order to protect their relatives during the traditional holidays. I started developing a mobile app today to be released by December 12 and another (also related to COVID) to be released by December 20, I don't know what impact this will have on ...
I haven't exercised regularly in years, and last week I started thinking about how bad the consequences can be for me. I decided to do something, I wasn't in the mood, I thought "well, I'll do 10 push-ups. Maybe it's not much, but it's better than nothing". And I made it. You said "make it ridiculously easy", and now I just made 15 push-ups. Interesting. This is really easy. And I will do it again. Just a little more on the next time.
Epistemic status: babble all the way down, not pruning. But I believe my approach is better than most of other answers here.
The error from other LWers is not separating the evaluation of lessons to the evaluation of tests.
Students should be allowed to give good teachers a bonus. For each lesson, in any moment of the lesson, the students should have the possibility to rate the teacher's performance on some metrics. Think on a mobile application that does that. Do you know when you take a ride with an Uber and immediately after finishing the ride...
I don't think so. For example, follow these instructions:
Now you can see, although most LW readers are not like this guy, this guy is among LW readers. My point is that we should financially support this guy, independently if he belongs to LW or not. I would say it is easy to help him and we have a reason to support him, and the fact he reads LW does...
Why would they?
Sometimes non needy people want to help other people in need. If you were looking to maximize happiness points across the world, for example, you would gain more points helping those members in need.
Considering that LW readers are mostly rich Americans
There are non-zero members suffering financially, that's why I asked that. It would be too easy for some people here to make this number go to zero.
My question was really stupid, actually I was thinking "I would like to spend at least 200 hours on this project, but it seems I won't get any money from it, maybe I could ask LW members if they want to support it financially".
A better question is "Can I ask you money to help me to build a software that may help you?", or "it is inappropriate to ask for money on LW, the platform discourages this".
Disclaimer: I am still not sure if this is the correct question. Anyway, I am developing some helper tools, and although I won't monetize them directly, it would be good to get some money from it, because I am not the guy who has enough money to not need any money from the community anymore.
Fundraising requests have been in the past posted on LessWrong: Berkeley REACH would be one example, the Grants & Fundraising Opportunities tag has plenty of other examples. If you want to ask for money I would recommend that you read through a bunch of the existing fundraising posts. They will likely both show you how to format a request and what kind of projects this community values.
In general you will likely come to the conclusion that while people are willing to fund promising projects, it needs more then just "helping a fellow community mem...
Should LW members support each other financially?
This question has a weird implication of mutuality. What I think you mean to ask is "should some LW members support other LW members financially?".
My answer is "yes, if the donors think that's a good use of their financial resources."
Related questions you didn't ask, but should have:
If my stated and/or revealed preferences are that I don't value joining the elite class very much, is that wrong in either an instrumental or terminal sense?
Considering you haven't miscalculated the value from joining the elite class, I believe it is wrong to spend energy to be labeled as "elite". If you lost something you had to protect while you wasted your time with useless pursuits, like trying to "join the elite" by getting some very specific superior pedigree, then you took a very poor instrumental action. It all depends on what you actually want and...
Yes, we can hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes. Using GPT-4/5 we could use it to create a set of questions to check if the intellectual can answer the questions correctly avoiding every kind of bias already explained here on LW. For each bias already explained before, we can create new questions that show when a human fall on them, assigning a new score to that human. I would like each human to write down all his knowledge with the help of an automatic writing system, we could create a visual tree of all knowledge the system detecte...
Yes, jungofthewon, and AI going well will also give all humanity the ability to get adequate quantity of super-delicious green food, making everyone get unlimited access to super-delicious perfectly sustainable healthy and ethical food.
Also, AI going well will provide to humanity the best algorithm to allocate different people in different places, choosing the best place to accommodate every person on earth. You wouldn't believe that living with this specific set of 7 people on this specific city and in this specific house would give you the maximum ...
Getting an extra $1000/month wouldn't suddenly create a bunch of entrepreneurs and revolutionize the economy
Obviously it will. You are just underestimating the number of people on bullshit jobs because they lack the capital or motivation for anything greater. I will not focus on the obvious justifications for UBI like "the fact that technological unemployment is only going to get worse. Nearly half the population is employed in jobs that could be replaced by automation, and that number will only get higher as time goes on".
Sometimes, people just need help....
For me the idea of expansive translations is fantastic. Every time I read a new post in Lesswrong that brings important information to the table, I think about translating it into Portuguese and bringing the information to the members of my tribe. But obviously I don't think about translating literally, word for word, because I can see the loss of information that this would bring. I know exactly how I could write in Portuguese that would bring the sensations desired by the original author of the post, considering all the cultural nuances and inferent...
Did you pay the premium version? I am using the free version and I am not sure if the free version is GPT-2 or GPT-3.
Welcome Saffron!
Most babble that seems to be "predictions" are actually not predictions and, as pointed by Ericf, they do not reflect the internal confidence of the speaker. Sometimes I hear "I am completely sure my favorite team is going to win the championship", although it is clear that this is not a prediction made by the person, it is his way of saying "I really would like this outcome to happen and that's my way of signal this".
"He is not going to die" doesn't mean "I predict with 90% confidence that he is not...
Very interesting. When I stopped teaching in person due to pandemics, I started to research the best platform to teach online. When I saw this post comparing the options, and then looked YouTube videos using each one, I became absolutely religious after testing Mozilla Hubs, and started shouting out for all directions that this thing is completely awesome and I was all in. Today, I use this platform every week. The students love it! And now I discovered LessWrong is using it too. It couldn't be different.
"DO YOU CHOOSE TO NULL-BOX EVEN WHEN THERE ARE TEN DELICIOUS HUNDRED DOLLAR BILLS JUST WAITING TO BE PURSUED BY YOU?"
"Yes"
"AS A TRICKSTER GOD I WILL REWARD YOU NOW WITH TWO MILLION DOLLARS. ONE FOR EACH BOX YOU CHOSE TO NOT OPEN. THE TRICK IS THAT I NEVER PRESENTED YOU WITH THE BEST OPTION AVAILABLE, BUT YOU STILL GOT THE IDEAL SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT TRUE THAT I WOULD IMMEDIATELY TERMINATE ALL SIMULATIONS OF YOUR COPIES IN CASE THEY HAD CHOSEN ANOTHER OPTIONS, AS SIMULATIONS ARE VERY CHEAP TO RUN FOR EVER"
The statue became motionless again. Maxwell donates the prize to the priests who promised him salvation, for they had always been right.
Problem: Automatic planting
Action space: the agent obtains data from the sensors and decides how to use the actuators (temperature modifiers, humidity, exposure to sunlight/other modifier) to maximize specific crop characteristics
The reward: the agent knows that he is performing better when he minimizes the time needed for the plants to reach specific characteristics. For example, when trying to minimize the time required for three plants to reach a specific height of 0.2m, a higher score would be attributed to the action policy that led the plant to grow
...One thing I tried was keeping open tabs infinitely, and I would just close them when I had finished the work on them. Sometimes I have 40 tabs opened, and I feel the pressure to "stop opening new tabs and finish those that are already open". And then, I click on them one by one, sometimes realizing that I already did what should be done and closing them. Sometimes, I keep postponing. After a new check, I think there are tabs that don't add too much and I close them.
When you keep your tabs on mind, but not on the browser (e.g. chromium) you'll eventually lo
...I think you are referring to Goodheart's law, because all the measures your examples used as a proxy to achieve some goal were gamified in a way that the proxy stopped working reliably.
Exactly, I am from Brazil and I can't see any option that fit my race.
According to Wikipedia, "According to the American census, the Hispanic or Latin category would not include Brazilians or Americans with origins in Brazil, [3] [4] [8] as it is specific to people of "Spanish culture or origin". [3] [4]. Technically speaking, people from Portugal or of Portuguese origin are called Lusitanians. In Portugal, the term "hispanic" refers to something related to ancient Hispania, Spain or the Spanish language and culture [9]. The common modern term for identify
...LessWrong warned me two months before it occurred here. The suggested preparedness was clear and concise, and I felt the power on my hands. I had valuable info no one on my tribe had. I alarmed my mom and she listened me, stayed home and safe, when everyone was partying out (carnival). I long-talked with friends, and explained to them what I believed it was happening and why I believed that. I showed the numbers, the math, the predictions to the next week, next week came, and reality presented its metallic taste. Week after week, the light was getting brig...
I'm glad you're trying, and am sorry to hear it is so hard; that sounds really hard. You might try the book "How to have Impossible Conversations." I don't endorse every bit of it, but there's some good stuff in there IMO, or at least I got mileage from it.
The people on my personal circle I like the most don't know basic math and are not interested in learning anything about it.
I can't talk with relatives about optimizing anything, because mostly they don't allow me to talk. When I do talk, they don't listen anything. For them, the game is just about status. Or politics. Trash talk all the time. Nothing objective. As time goes on, I talk less and less with them. I don't see any solution for this, and I feel guilty for thinking on giving up on trying to express my thoughts for them.
I feel bad about realizing
...Hot sauce:
"[...] insults her cooking and insinuates that she doesn’t know how to cook"
If my girlfriend had said something like that, I think an appropriate solution would be:
...[curious] what you mean... [\curious]. [surprised] AHHHH, the hot sauce?? [\surprised]. [empathy] Ohhh, my love. Really sorry for that [\empathy]. [confession ~ lower speaking] I have to tell you something. I am so addicted to hot sauce that I even didn't remember that I shouldn't use it in (clearly exaggerating) every meal I eat. Your meal is [emphasis] really amazing [\emphasis] an
"I was reading your post, but suddenly I had to leave in the middle of it. I would like to say that I agree/liked your intuition (to the point that I read it), and I would like to signal this immediately, because I'm afraid I won't remember to finish the reading in the future, although I would like myself to finish it in the future."
"Although your post seemed to be going in a direction I like, I had to abandon the reading. Forgive me for leaving it and not finishing absorbing a seemingly important message. I hope this reaction hel...
Thanks for the great effort for bringing a summary that really makes me feel I don't have to continue digging for new information. If this work is going to be continued, I will just wait for your new updates, and then finish looking for local news, as things on my country are largely different from yours. Keep it up!
Got it. I wonder why there aren't discussions about cryptocurrencies here on LW. Like, extensively researching the existing protocols and their characteristics and then naming which one is the best and why, and betting on it. Or even using it on the forum. I would suggest you to research these two cryptos I have cited if you are interested on updating your bets.
35% crypto -- XTZ, BTC, and ETH (and small amounts of LTC, XRP, and BCH)
Why do you bet on cryptos with weak fundamentals like LTC, XRP, and BCH, and not on cryptos with stronger fundamentals like Monero and Nano?
These points really make me update my beliefs on the importance of learning Chinese. Thanks for that.
What am I missing by not speaking Portuguese?
Brazilian speaks with the body, so you are not missing that much. Haha just kidding (although it's true that body language plays a big role here). But there are 250 million total portuguese speakers, and by just knowing Portuguese you will understand Spanish easily, because there is 89% of lexical similarity. I can understand Spanish with no problems and I never studied it. If you know how to search, there i...
Suppose a dynamic in which a creator announces that wants to complete a task. E.g.:
Creator: "I would like to give a lesson teaching how to remove the background of a photo".
The creator optionally puts a threshold in which, once the users already demonstrated enough interest, the creator starts streaming his job. Let's suppose, e.g., that the last creator have put the threshold: "$50.00".
Users decide to "put money on the table" on the platform, signaling interest in seeing the creator accomplishing the task.
Users can also...
Learning a new language (English) was decisive in my life to fill a lot of type 1, type 2 and 3 holes as you presented on this post.
In 2013 "I felt" I should learn English. I didn't have a clear goal on doing it, but "it seemed important on the long-term", but I couldn't explain why it would be important to care about really learn another language.
In 2016 I heard from a YouTuber from my country talking about AI. My goals changed completely, and I could only find real quality discussions about AI or state-of-the-art information in English.
Then it came progr
...Thanks, corrected it now.
Gautret et al. 2020° shouldn't be considered a study of hydroxychloroquine efficacy. It should be considered a failed attempt at studying hydroxychloroquine efficacy. Here is why I believe that.
WHO I AM: I have 24 years of existence. I give math, chemistry and physics lessons to high school students since 17. I am pretty good at it and I never announced anywhere on planet that I give lessons - all new students appear from recommendations from older students. On the end of 2016 I already had 38 months going to the university, trying to get mechanical engineering credentials. I wasn't interested on the course - I really liked the math and the subjects, but the teachers sucked and the experience was, in general, terrible. I hated my life and wa...
Thanks for the suggestion, ESRogs. I'm adding the shortened version now.
TL;DR. If you have (slightly) low PaO2, but no trouble breathing, you probably don't need to go to the hospital. And if you have trouble breathing, you should probably go to the hospital whether or not you have low PaO2. So testing for oxygen saturation doesn't add much.
I had an online conversation with an intensive care physician. I sent him a translated version of juliawise's text and he said he didn't think buying the pulse oximeter would help and then sent me a 5 minute audio explaining why. The following text is his audio translat...
This comment could maybe use a tl;dr saying:
If you have (slightly) low SpO2, but no trouble breathing, you probably don't need to go to the hospital. And if you have trouble breathing, you should probably go to the hospital whether or not you have low SpO2. So testing for oxygen saturation doesn't add much.
Is there any info the comment was meant to convey that that leaves out?
Should I expect a faster infection rate on my country (Brazil) because most people here use paper money to make trades? Should I recommend people to stop using paper money and instead opt for a contactless card? Most people don't have access to banking services; so is there any option for them?
Jesus once said: "Simply let your "yes" mean yes, and your "no" mean no, because anything beyond that comes from evil".