I expect the trend to speed up before 2029 for a few reasons:

1. AI accelerating AI progress once we reach 10s of hours of time horizon.
2. The trend might be "inherently" superexponential. It might be that unlocking some planning capability generalizes very well from 1-week to 1-year tasks and we just go through those doublings very quickly.

1. All of the above but it seems pretty hard to have an impact as a high schooler, and many impact avenues aren't technically "positions" (e.g. influencer)
2. I think that everyone expect "Extremely resilient individuals who expect to get an impactful position (including independent research) very quickly" is probably better off following the strategy.

I think that for people (such as myself) who think/realize timelines are likely short, I find it more truth-tracking to use terminology that actually represents my epistemic state (that timelines are likely short) rather than hedging all the time and making it seem like I'm really uncertain.

Under my own lights, I'd be giving bad advice if I were hedging about timelines when giving advice (because the advice wouldn't be tracking the world as it is, it would be tracking a probability distribution I disagree with and thus a probability distribution that leads to bad decisions), and my aim is to give good advice.

Like, if a house was 70% likely to be set on fire, I'd say something like "The people who realize that the house is dangerous should leave the house" instead of using think.

But yeah, point taken. "Realize" could imply consensus, which I don't mean to do.

I've changed the wording to be more precise now ("have <6 year median AGI timelines")

The waiting room strategy for people in undergrad/grad school who have <6 year median AGI timelines: treat school as "a place to be until you get into an actually impactful position". Try as hard as possible to get into an impactful position as soon as possible. As soon as you get in, you leave school.

Upsides compared to dropping out include:

• Lower social cost (appeasing family much more, which is a common constraint, and not having a gap in one's resume)
• Avoiding costs from large context switches (moving, changing social environment). 

Extremely resilient individuals who expect to get an impactful position (including independent research) very quickly are probably better off directly dropping out.

Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis statements on international coordination (source):

Interviewer: The personal decisions you make are going to shape this technology. Do you ever worry about ending up like Robert Oppenheimer?

Demis: Look, I worry about those kinds of scenarios all the time. That's why I don't sleep very much. There's a huge amount of responsibility on the people, probably too much, on the people leading this technology. That's why us and others are advocating for, we'd probably need institutions to be built to help govern some of this. I talked about CERN, I think we need an equivalent of an IAEA atomic agency to monitor sensible projects and those that are more risk-taking. I think we need to think about, society needs to think about, what kind of governing bodies are needed. Ideally it would be something like the UN, but given the geopolitical complexities, that doesn't seem very possible. I worry about that all the time and we just try to do, at least on our side, everything we can in the vicinity and influence that we have.

Dario: My thoughts exactly echo Demis. My feeling is that almost every decision that I make feels like it's kind of balanced on the edge of a knife. If we don't build fast enough, then the authoritarian countries could win. If we build too fast, then the kinds of risks that Demis is talking about and that we've written about a lot could prevail. Either way, I'll feel that it was my fault that we didn't make exactly the right decision. I also agree with Demis that this idea of governance structures outside ourselves. I think these kinds of decisions are too big for any one person. We're still struggling with this, as you alluded to, not everyone in the world has the same perspective, and some countries in a way are adversarial on this technology, but even within all those constraints we somehow have to find a way to build a more robust governance structure that doesn't put this in the hands of just a few people.

Interviewer: [...] Is it actually possible [...]?

Demis: [...] Some sort of international dialogue is going to be needed. These fears are sometimes written off by others as luddite thinking or deceleration, but I've never heard a situation in the past where the people leading the field are also expressing caution. We're dealing with something unbelievably transformative, incredibly powerful, that we've not seen before. It's not just another technology. You can hear from a lot of the speeches at this summit, still people are regarding this as a very important technology, but still another technology. It's different in category. I don't think everyone's fully understood that.

Interviewer: [...] Do you think we can avoid there having to be some kind of a disaster? [...] What should give us all hope that we will actually get together and create this until something happens that demands it?

Dario: If everyone wakes up one day and they learn that some terrible disaster has happened that's killed a bunch of people or caused an enormous security incident, that would be one way to do it. Obviously, that's not what we want to happen. [...] every time we have a new model, we test it, we show it to the national security people [...]

My best guess is around 2/3.

Oh, I didn't get the impression that GPT-5 will be based on o3. Through the GPT-N convention I'd assume GPT-5 would be a model pretrained with 8-10x more compute than GPT-4.5 (which is the biggest internal model according to Sam Altman's statement at UTokyo).

Sam Altman said in an interview:

We want to bring GPT and o together, so we have one integrated model, the AGI. It does everything all together.

This statement, combined with today's announcement that GPT-5 will integrate the GPT and o series, seems to imply that GPT-5 will be "the AGI". 

(however, it's compatible that some future GPT series will be "the AGI," as it's not specified that the first unified model will be AGI, just that some unified model will be AGI. It's also possible that the term AGI is being used in a nonstandard way)

At a talk at UTokyo, Sam Altman said (clipped here and here):

• “We’re doing this new project called Stargate which has about 100 times the computing power of our current computer”
• “We used to be in a paradigm where we only did pretraining, and each GPT number was exactly 100x, or not exactly but very close to 100x and at each of those there was a major new emergent thing. Internally we’ve gone all the way to about a maybe like a 4.5”
• “We can get performance on a lot of benchmarks [using reasoning models] that in the old world we would have predicted wouldn’t have come until GPT-6, something like that, from models that are much smaller by doing this reinforcement learning.”
• “The trick is when we do it this new way [using RL for reasoning], it doesn’t get better at everything. We can get it better in certain dimensions. But we can now more intelligently than before say that if we were able to pretrain a much bigger model and do [RL for reasoning], where would it be. And the thing that I would expect based off of what we’re seeing with a jump like that is the first bits or sort of signs of life on genuine new scientific knowledge.”
• “Our very first reasoning model was a top 1 millionth competitive programmer in the world [...] We then had a model that got to top 10,000 [...] O3, which we talked about publicly in December, is the 175th best competitive programmer in the world. I think our internal benchmark is now around 50 and maybe we’ll hit number one by the end of this year.”
• “There’s a lot of research still to get to [a coding agent]”