I am interested in all of the above, for appropriate people/projects. (I meant projects for me to do myself.)

1. I'm interested in being pitched projects, especially within tracking-what-the-labs-are-doing-in-terms-of-safety.
2. I'm interested in hearing which parts of my work are helpful to you and why.
3. I don't really have projects/tasks to outsource, but I'd likely be interested in advising you if you're working on a tracking-what-the-labs-are-doing-in-terms-of-safety project or another project closely related to my work.

I'm a master artisan of great foresight, you're taking time to do something right, they're a perfectionist with no ability to prioritize. Source: xkcd.

Update: experts and superforecasters agree with Ryan that current VCT results indicate substantial increase in human-caused epidemic risk. (Based on the summary; I haven't read the paper.)

this is evidence that tyler cowen has never been wrong about anything

Two blogs that regularly have some such content are Transformer and Obsolete.

Pitching my AI safety blog: I write about what AI companies are doing in terms of safety. My best recent post is AI companies' eval reports mostly don't support their claims. See also my websites ailabwatch.org and aisafetyclaims.org collecting and analyzing public information on what companies are doing; my blog will soon be the main way to learn about new content on my sites.

I don't understand the footnote.

In 99.9% of cases, the market resolves N/A and no money changes hands. In 0.1% of cases, the normal thing happens.

What's wrong with this reasoning? Who pays for the 1000x?

Yes but this decreases traders' alpha by 99.9%, right? At least for traders who are constrained by number of markets where they have an edge (maybe some traders are more constrained by risk or something).

Coda: Anthropic published https://www.anthropic.com/research/agentic-misalignment