Written by Nathan Young, Multicore last updated

Summaries

China is a large country in eastern Asia, the most populous in the world and a significant power in the 21st century.

Chinese Leadership

Xi Jinping is the current Chinese President. His median expected term is until 2030.

China and Taiwan

Taiwan is a large producer of semi-conductors and useful strategically for denying Chinese control of the Pacific. It considers itself a sovereign nation, though is not recognised as such because China cuts off any country that acknowledges this. China considers Taiwan to be a part of China. 

It is extremely unlikely that Taiwan will be invaded by 2025, but plausible,  by 2030 or later. If they try and invade before 2035, it's a coin toss if they will succeed and likewise whether Japan will respond militarily.

It is plausible, but unlikely that there is a war between the US and China before 2035 with over 1,000 casualties.