Prediction markets are like stock markets, but for beliefs about future events. They've been championed by Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, and Eliezer Yudkowsky and are a repeating topic of Astral Codex Ten. Increasingly they're a tool available to all of us for evaluating the world and what might happen.
Today we're going to have a short speech based on Scott Alexander's Prediction Market FAQ about how they work and what the available market tools are, then break into open discussion. I'll have a paper-powered prediction market for use of people who want to get the hang of how they work with a simple version- my favourite use of the paper prediction market is a game called "Two Truths and a Prediction Market." If you've a mind to talk politics, we'll have examples of some well traded prediction markets on the 2024 election.
Prediction markets are like stock markets, but for beliefs about future events. They've been championed by Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, and Eliezer Yudkowsky and are a repeating topic of Astral Codex Ten. Increasingly they're a tool available to all of us for evaluating the world and what might happen.
Today we're going to have a short speech based on Scott Alexander's Prediction Market FAQ about how they work and what the available market tools are, then break into open discussion. I'll have a paper-powered prediction market for use of people who want to get the hang of how they work with a simple version- my favourite use of the paper prediction market is a game called "Two Truths and a Prediction Market." If you've a mind to talk politics, we'll have examples of some well traded prediction markets on the 2024 election.
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