As usual this will be at Tim's apartment, on Sat March 19, 2-6 pm

Ulloi 66/b/1 

Ring 27

6th floor, door 3

They have a cat and a dog.

Quoting Tim's e-mail from the BUD LW/ACX mailing list:

Another month another invasion of Ukraine.

Since we were talking about whether Ukraine would be invaded (and what would be the consequences) last time, I think it might be fun to talk about when we figured out what, and how many rationality points we are winning/ losing with our predictions about the war.

I started with assuming the war wasn't going to happen and once it did promptly moved to predicting Ukraine would crumble like the US supported regime in Afghanistan, and it would all be over within a week. You may draw your own conclusions about what is likely to happen next from my current view that it will take Russia at least two or three months to successfully take either Kharkov or Kiev. 

So bring your own stories of what you predicted badly, and what if anything you think you can learn from that.

As for a second subject for discussion, rather than me coming up with something, I'm looking for volunteers to do two or three lightning talks in the second half of the meeting. 

Also as one other thing, I just got a text from a community member who will be in Budapest this weekend (4th-6th), and in a bit I'll send out his email so that anyone who is interested in meeting him can arrange a meetup.

Tim