ACXLW Meetup 78: "Rules for Rulers" by CGP Grey and "Game Theory of Michigan Muslims" by Scott Alexander

Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
Time: 2:00 PM
Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place, Newport Beach, CA 92660
Host: Michael Michalchik
Contact: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com | (949) 375-2045

Conversation Starter 1

Topic: "Rules for Rulers" by CGP Grey
Videos:

• Rules for Rulers
• How to Rig an Election
  Transcripts: Reformatted Transcripts

Summary:

• Understanding Political Power: The videos explore the foundational principles behind how rulers gain, maintain, and lose power, based on the ideas from "The Dictator's Handbook" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith.
• The Three Rules for Rulers:
  1. Get the Key Supporters on Your Side: No ruler governs alone; they need the backing of key individuals who control resources, enforcement, and administrative functions.
  2. Control the Treasure: Rulers must manage the nation's wealth to reward key supporters, ensuring their continued loyalty.
  3. Minimize Key Supporters: The fewer essential supporters a ruler needs, the easier it is to satisfy them and maintain control.
• Dictatorships vs. Democracies: While the rules apply universally, their manifestation differs. In dictatorships, power is concentrated among a few, whereas democracies require pleasing a broader base, often leading to policies that benefit more citizens.
• Family as a Tool for Power: The sequel video discusses how dynasties form and why rulers often place family members in positions of power to ensure continuity and mitigate the risks associated with transitions of power.
• The Role of Corruption and Policy: The content delves into how rulers may manipulate systems—such as elections, laws, and taxation—to maintain power, and how these actions impact the well-being of the general populace.

Discussion Questions:

a) Universal Application of Power Dynamics: How do the three rules for rulers manifest differently in various forms of governance, such as dictatorships and democracies? Can these rules explain political behaviors in organizations beyond government, like corporations or nonprofits?

b) Ethics of Power Maintenance: Is it possible for a ruler to maintain power ethically while following these rules, or do the rules inherently encourage corruption and self-interest over the common good?

c) Family and Succession: What are the benefits and risks of involving family members in positions of power? How does this practice impact political stability and the potential for reform or revolution?

Conversation Starter 2

Topic: "Game Theory of Michigan Muslims" by Scott Alexander
Text: Game Theory of Michigan Muslims

Summary:

• Strategic Voting Decisions: The article examines a group of Muslims in Michigan who consider voting for a candidate whose policies they fundamentally oppose to signal dissatisfaction with their traditional party's stance on issues important to them.
• Bargaining for Political Influence: By voting for the opposing party, they hope to incentivize their preferred party to address their concerns in future elections, utilizing a game-theoretic approach to maximize their political influence.
• Ultimatum Game Analogy: The situation is compared to the Ultimatum Game in game theory, where one party must decide how to split a sum of money, and the other can accept or reject the offer, with rejection resulting in neither party receiving anything.
• Decision Theory and Rationality: The article discusses different decision-making frameworks, including Eliezer Yudkowsky's Logical Decision Theory, to analyze whether such a voting strategy is rational or counterproductive.
• Implications for Coalition Politics: The strategy raises questions about loyalty within political coalitions and the potential consequences of groups attempting to leverage their votes in this manner.

Discussion Questions:

a) Effectiveness of Strategic Voting: Do you think voting for a less preferred candidate to send a message is an effective strategy for influencing a party's policies? What are the potential risks and benefits of this approach?

b) Game Theory in Politics: How does the Ultimatum Game analogy help us understand the dynamics between minority voting blocs and political parties? Are there limitations to applying this model to real-world politics?

c) Ethical Considerations: Is it ethically justifiable for a group to vote against their immediate interests to achieve long-term goals? How might this affect their relationship with the party they traditionally support?

Walk & Talk: After the discussion, we will take our usual hour-long walk. Nearby options for takeout include Gelson's and Pavilions, located in the 92660 zip code area.

Share a Surprise: Bring something to share that unexpectedly changed your perspective on life or the universe.

Future Direction Ideas: As always, feel free to contribute ideas for future meetings, topics, and activities.

Looking forward to seeing everyone there!