I think LWers may be intrigued...
Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Carrier has leveled some objections to their article, but his objections are weak.
Have at it.
I can see a few problems with your example:
Now, compare that with the Hebrew apostles, and consider that, even today, to become a "completed Jew" can cut you off from your entire family. Imagine what it would be like in those days.