I wrote a long post laying out the evidence for the lab leak theory. It's very likely that when the US intelligence community reports on 25. August on their data about the orgins of the COVID-19 they will conclude that it was a lab leak. This then will lead to the discovery that the virology community mislead the public and Fauci will be forced to resign. Once he's resigned a senate committee will have a lot of fun asking him how the funding decision for Baric & Shi was made in 2015 while the gain of function ban was in place and why the safety framework for gain of function research that was instituted after the ban was lifted in 2019 was never applied to the grant even so it was paid till 2019. They will also enjoy subpoenaing Twitter and Facebook for the documents about how those started censoring the lab leak hypothesis.
These events make it quite likely that we have a huge crisis of faith in the medical establishment. Milton Freedman used to say: “Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.”
There are likely two months to plan what to do once things blow up and it might be valuable to plan for the scenario. Is this the time where structural change to the medical system can be made? What solutions should be proposed to deal with malicious and incompetent scientists?
Unfortunately, there's a good chance this will happen while we have a new SARS-CoV-2 variant that would be better fought by giving a third vaccination dose. It might be pretty important to have Novavax around as an alternative to the current vaccines to give people alternatives to the current solutions.
Lastly, this scenario might be worth trading on. This isn't financial advice, but if you want to trade it might be worthwhile about coming up with your own probability for this event happening and thinking through what it will do to the markets.
I am less confident than you in the lab leak hypothesis, but am even less confident that this development will shake confidence in the medical establishment. People rarely care much when experts get things wrong. At the most, I expect that there will be medium-sized media outlets telling people that the medical establishment is unreliable, and their audience -- the vast majority of whom had already agreed with that thesis -- will nod their heads in agreement.
I'm unsure about how to operationalize a crisis of faith here, but I'm willing to bet against it.
The CCP doesn't think they know how science works. They generally try to copy Western judgements for what good science happens to be. That's why they pay their scientists based on their ability to publish in Western journals.
Getting Western grant money is a signal that what Shi is doing is good science to the CCP. While it's not certain that the signal tiped the scales to allow the WIV to do their research when they lacked enough trained personal to do so safely (that's what they told US diplomats in 2018), it might have tipped the scales against let... (read more)