All of these examples seem like different variations of how to account for problem information.
I am reminded of a blog post about algorithms in scientific computing. Boo-hiss, I know, but - the claim of the blog post is that algorithmic efficiency is about problem information, and the more information the algorithm can capture about the problem the more efficient it can be. The example in support of the claim is the solving of linear systems of equations, and I establish relevance in this way: linear systems of equations are used in linear programming, which was co-invented by Leonhid Kantorovich during WWII in the Soviet Union for solving problems of the centralized economy. It features in the book Red Plenty, reviewed at SlateStarCodex many moons ago. In this way the blog post bears on how the abstractions which underlie the story of this section of the book work.
Applying these intuitions, it feels to me like the attribution of the success of Fordism and Taylorism to centralization is a mistake: the value of the systems they built came from capturing important additional information about the problems of industry, and not from centralization per se. Centralization is the means of transmitting the important information to where it needs to go, like the needs of different places for materials, labor, parts, or the existence of better processes and procedures. The heuristic for the success of an org becomes whether it can gather and process the important information for the problem(s) the org is solving, and avoiding too much other stuff. Avoiding other stuff feels necessary because it seems inevitable to me that it will manifest as noise from the perspective of problem information.
Also under this lens, the arguments from labor and counterculture can be recast as ignoring critical information about problems (I would put the environmental consequences of industry here) or entire classes of problems (I would put all the social ones here).
The problem information lens is easy to apply for already well-defined problems, like speeding up an assembly line or finding the correct combination of blast-furnace inputs, but I notice feeling distinctly unsatisfied with it from the standpoint of uncovering new problems. This'll need more chewing.
Part 2 of my review of American Genesis
Quote quiz: who said this?
Teddy Roosevelt? Henry Ford? No—it was Joseph Stalin, writing on “The Foundations of Leninism” in Pravda, in April 1924.
That was one of many fascinating facts I learned from American Genesis: A Century of Invention and Technological Enthusiasm, 1870–1970, by Thomas Hughes. The book is not only about the century of technological enthusiasm, but also about how that enthusiasm (in my opinion) went wrong, and how it came to an end.
I’m reviewing this book in three parts, although each part should stand alone. This is part 2. Part 1, covering roughly the first half of the book, was on the creation of large technological systems of production and distribution: Ford’s manufacturing operation, the Bell telephone network, the electric grid. This part, covering most of the second half of the book, is about the reaction to and interpretation of these systems. (All quotes in what follows are from the book unless otherwise attributed.)
“The system must be first”
With large technological systems came a challenge of order and control: load management in electrical power generation, circuit switching in telephone networks, inventory management in supply chains.
Factories, too, required order and control. I’ve written earlier about how Carnegie felt the lack of control over steel production, saying “I felt as if we were moles burrowing in the dark.” There was a similar problem in machine shops and engineering works. Shop foremen were responsible for most of the production process; they ordered materials and delegated jobs to machinists:
The man who was most obsessed with improving factory efficiency, whose name became almost synonymous with it, was Frederick W. Taylor:
This new “planning department” coordinated the work and optimized the flow of materials, components, and jobs. They gave detailed instructions to the machinists and other workers, and they kept careful records of work performed and time and materials used:
Taylor believed that laborers could work harder and produce more—even that they were deliberately slacking off, actively hiding from management how much productivity was possible (a practice called “soldiering”). He addressed this with what became known as time-and-motion studies:
Taylor’s 1911 book Principles of Scientific Management was widely read and his methods were enthusiastically embraced by some managers. But he received strong opposition from labor.
The factory system, which had been on the rise ever since the first Industrial Revolution, had already deprived workers of the chance to be master craftsmen: running their own shop, setting their own hours, directing their own work, becoming experts in all parts of the process. Instead, they had to commute to factories and labor under the direction of a foreman. In the factory, they performed only one minor, specialized task. Now the detailed instructions from the planning departments and the time-and-motion studies “denied the individual worker the freedom to use his body and his tools as he chose.”
Mechanization and automation had turned workers into mere cogs in a great machine. Now Taylor was attempting to optimize them, as one might optimize parts of a machine. He imagined a system in which “the mechanical and human parts were virtually indistinguishable,” and he and his followers “unfeelingly compared an inefficient worker to a poorly designed machine member.” In Principles of Scientific Management he wrote: “In the past, the man has been first; in the future the system must be first.”
Workers in many factories protested. Some claimed that Taylor and his staff didn’t understand their work; one group sent a petition against the “humiliating” time-and-motion studies, calling them “un-American,” and then staged a walkout. During one particularly bitter conflict, “friends begged Taylor to stop walking home alone late at night through deserted streets.” Samuel Gompers, the famous labor leader, lambasted scientific management:
Despite the opposition from labor, “scientific management” was extremely popular in the early 20th century, and much more broadly than in the factory. There was a high degree of confidence in elites and their ability to direct the world. Taylor himself wrote:
The Progressive party that Teddy Roosevelt ran under in 1912
Even the conservationist movement of the time—in stark contrast to the countercultural environmentalist movement some fifty years later (see below)—was based on similar themes:
This, then, is “scientific management”: there is “one best way”; this way can be found, and should be directed, by educated elites; and therefore “the system must be first.”
As we’ll see, these ideas turned out to have broad appeal.
Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany
In the 1920s, after WW1 but before the Depression, America was clearly ascendant in the world. It had produced the telephone, the light bulb, and the Model T; it had helped win the war; and it was becoming a dominant economy. It “had never enjoyed greater respect, or been more envied.” Europeans “wanted to know how the United States had become the most productive enterprise in the history of the world”—especially in the new Soviet and Weimar republics.
Both Russia and Germany looked to America as a model to copy. This was surprising to me, given that soon after, the US would be fighting WW2 against Germany, and then a Cold War against the USSR. But the US clearly possessed economic and military power, and other nations wanted that for themselves. The quote at top about “American efficiency” was from Stalin writing about the “special Leninist work style.” In other words, Stalin had made American efficiency into cardinal Leninist doctrine.
But (and I am editorializing now) the Russians and the Germans copied the wrong things. They didn’t copy capitalism, economic freedom, limited government, or individualism. They copied factories, power plants, and “scientific management.” “While middle-class Americans believed that the world was waiting to hear about their political system and their free enterprise, Germans and Russians were asking about Taylorism and Fordism.”
Lenin was a big fan and careful student of Taylor, saying in a speech in 1918:
The Soviets took Taylorism “from the limited field of factory organization to the grand scale of the national economy. The Communist Party, wanting to persuade the entire nation that scientific management accorded fully with scientific Marxism, translated and published the Taylor book and other American books, articles, and countless commentaries on scientific management.”
Individualistic American workers had revolted against being treated as parts of a machine, but Russians embraced this notion:
Ford, too, was popular in Russia. His 1922 biography, My Life and Work, had had four printings in the Soviet Union by 1925. “He was read with a zeal usually reserved for the study of Lenin. … Peasants who had never heard of Stalin knew about the man who manufactured the ‘iron horse.’ … The peasants celebrated Fordson days and Fordson festivals in their villages.” Fordson was the name of the Ford tractor, over 10,000 of which were delivered to Russia in the 1920s. (It eventually turned out, however, that the tractors did not perform well in Russian soils, were difficult to repair with no Ford service stations nearby, and ran on gasoline, “a fuel in short supply in the Soviet Union.”)
Germans were also enthralled by American industry. Franz Westermann, a German engineer, “felt compelled to make the pilgrimage” to America and write a book about it:
This sight touched him deeply:
But, even as the Russians and Germans embraced capitalism’s factories and machines, they rejected capitalism itself.
The Soviets wanted to extract those sources of economic might from the capitalist system and to put them on a socialist foundation instead, so that they could benefit the workers and not just the capitalists. Lenin, Trotsky, and the other Bolsheviks “believed that, if such technology were developed in a Soviet context, American means of production could lead the way to the socialist future.”
Indeed, they thought socialism was not only more moral but more practical, that capitalism was holding progress back. “Unlike capitalism, the Bolsheviks argued, socialism would not be burdened by political and economic contradictions that constrained the full development of modern production technology.” An adviser to Lenin persuaded him that “electrification could not be fully developed in a capitalistic shell where competition prevailed, but only in a socialist context. Collective enterprise and cooperation, instead of competition, would facilitate a nationwide system of energy production, a national grid that would function like a single great machine.”
The Germans, for their part, felt that the problem with America was that its capitalism performed in the service of materialism. They intended to have industry serve higher, spiritual ideals:
Fritz Todt, a Nazi, “articulated an ideology for German engineers”:
Todt saw technology as “a means for fulfilling the work ethic, satisfying heroic and creative instincts, making a German habitat, and establishing the Aryans in their rightful role as the master race.” He wrote: “Who would solve material problems by material means alone will be dominated by the material. Mastery will come through the spirit. We idealists will master dead matter through the Nazi spirit of combat and will.”
The Soviets imported American production machinery and contracted with American firms, including Ford, to design and construct large factories and hydroelectric dams. To direct the construction, they brought in American consulting engineers, who attempted to teach barefoot, illiterate Russian peasants how to operate industrial plants—peasants who “did not arrive at work on time because they had no clocks in their homes.”
Unfortunately, party members “often had a poor grasp of the systematic character of scientific management”:
At the Magnitogorsk steel complex:
Things somewhat improved after that. By 1935 some steel mills were operating, and by 1938, despite fulfilling less than half of its goal, “the Soviet Union could boast that Magnitogorsk was producing more pig iron than all the plants in Czechoslovakia, Italy, or Poland.” But of course, Communism never even came close to overtaking capitalism; indeed, millions died in famines, and the USSR eventually collapsed.
Overall, my impression of this episode is that it was a colossal waste of a crucial historical moment. America held the attention, admiration, and envy of the world. It could have held up, as a model for the world to follow, not only its factories and power plants, but its system of limited government and its focus on the individual pursuit of happiness.
I doubt that this could have have stopped the advance of fascism and socialism in Europe, but perhaps that advance would have been slowed. Instead, we got the disaster of totalitarian Communism and Nazism, and the mass suffering and death that resulted.
Technocracy in the USA
Why didn’t the USA promote its system of free enterprise to the world when it had the chance? Well, for one, the US itself no longer believed in free enterprise (or at least, its elites didn’t). The US, too, was trending towards government control:
Earlier, I’ve used the term “technocracy” to describe the approach of applying “scientific management” to society or the economy as a whole. The economist Thorstein Veblen took this idea to its logical extreme:
The connections between Veblen’s technocracy and Communism were explicit:
Veblen founded an organization to promote his idea: “Technocracy, Inc.” His essays were widely read, he was covered approvingly in Vanity Fair, and he became “required reading among intellectuals.” People started calling themselves Veblenists and forming Veblen clubs.
Technocracy in its full Veblen sense was not adopted in the US, but the general idea of control by a technical elite was widely popular—so much so that, even as the Soviets were looking to copy the American industrial model, many Americans were looking to copy the Soviet social model. Ford, who had originally criticized the Soviet Republic for seeking to “deny Nature,” including “the right to the fruits of labor,” later wrote with seeming approval that “Russia is beginning to build” and predicted that other nations would follow their lead. One young American welder, John Scott, “sadly disillusioned by the Depression in the United States,” went to Russia in the 1930s to, in his words, “lend a hand in the construction of a society which seemed to be at least one step ahead of the American.”
America didn’t adopt Communism, either, but it did adopt its own form of technocracy in the New Deal era. And much of this story centers on electric power.
Electric power became a focus for many technocrats and progressive reformers. Liberal social scientists who wanted a large role for government in deploying large-scale production systems spoke of “the value of planning and, specifically, of government planning for the development of entire regions”:
They saw electricity as the basis for a Second Industrial Revolution (which it was) that would remedy the problems of the first:
Historian and social critic Lewis Mumford called this move “the fourth migration,” after the migrations that had first settled the continent, then settled the industrial districts, then concentrated population in cities. He did not want this migration “to go unplanned, as had the other three.”
One argument for social planning was environmental damage:
Further, electric power is an industry that lends itself to scale. As noted in part 1 of this review, electric regions are more efficient when they are large and can aggregate many disparate consumers to smooth out demand. To an ardent capitalist, this is an argument for large corporations, and thus for consolidation via mergers (in that era, “trusts”). But to the idealistic socialist, the scale of electricity was an argument for government control.
Bolstering this argument was the fact that a prime source of power was hydroelectric dams, and these were not merely electric projects but hydraulic projects that affected the geography and agriculture of a whole region. The most enthusiastic technocrats of the 1920s and ‘30s in the US thus advocated large federal development projects that would build infrastructure across state lines.
These progressives—like the communists, and indeed like the capitalists—were optimistic about progress. Gifford Pinchot, governor of Pennsylvania, proposed a “Giant Power plan” for his state in 1925:
Nebraska Senator George Norris also advocated for major public works projects in electric power:
But the progressives thought this could only be done by government, not private interests. Pinchot spoke to his state legislature about
Norris felt similarly:
After WW1, there was a movement to continue government planning into peacetime, but it lost momentum in the ‘20s, when “the technological transformation of the nation was seen as largely and rightly a private enterprise.” With FDR and the New Deal, however, all of that changed.
Norris’s big campaign was “development of the Tennessee Valley through hydroelectric power, flood control, and soil conservation. … In the face of various schemes for private ownership, this Nebraskan in his sixties tirelessly and resourcefully maneuvered for twelve years through three hostile presidential administrations until the like-minded Roosevelt came to office.” He successfully blocked Henry Ford’s attempt to build a private dam at Muscle Schoals on the Tennessee River, then proposed his own legislation to have the government build it. Once FDR was in office, the legislation could go through, and eventually this became part of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), one of the flagship programs of the New Deal.
Visions for the TVA differed, leading to clashes and infighting among leadership. “More progressive regional planners throughout the nation… had enthusiastically called the TVA ‘a prevision of Utopia’ in which a new civilization would arise.” It fell short of Utopia, but it did build hydroelectric dams, administered agricultural services, and conserved forests in the whole valley region. “One 1934 study interpreted it as the greatest experiment in regional planning outside of Soviet Russia.”
Ironically, the TVA was so successful in generating clean hydroelectric power that it increased demand for power in the region to the point where it had to build coal-fired power plants to meet demand:
Top-down control of electric utilities persisted into the atomic age. After WW2, the military naturally wanted control over all nuclear reactors. When the US government was ready to permit civilian nuclear power, it began as a government monopoly. The authors of the Atomic Energy Act called it “radical,” writing that:
The counterculture
Towards the end of this century of technological enthusiasm, a reactionary backlash arose both against technocracy and against technology itself. Before WW2, Americans considered technology and industry as the basis of “the good life,” and only a “reflective minority lamented the rise of the grim industrial city, poison gases, and bombing raids, the monotony of the assembly line, and the unemployment caused by the replacement of workers by machines.” But after WW2, the zeitgeist began to change. Although engineers, managers and others who worked within the system continued to think of technology in a positive light, “and even spoke of progress in ways reminiscent of the nineteenth century,”
This backlash was not a monolithic thing; there were different trends and threads of criticism. But on the whole, there was a reaction against large technological/industrial systems, and sometimes against technology and industry as such. For short, I’ll call it the counterculture.
Hughes calls out three main criticisms of modernity by the counterculture. The first is the destructive power of the military, armed with technology and backed by the productive power of industry:
The second criticism was about the environment:
Finally, there was a criticism that is not yet fully clear to me, about threats to freedom and the spirit:
In Theodore Roszak’s The Making of a Counter Culture: Reflections on the Technocratic Society and Its Youthful Opposition:
Charles Reich’s The Greening of America was about “a revolution of the young against the values of technology”:
In Herbert Marcuse’s One-Dimensional Man:
Lewis Mumford, who “shared philosopher Alfred North Whitehead’s ‘romantic reaction’ against the ‘mechanical philosophy,’” figures large in the book. Mumford was initially enthusiastic about technology. In Technics and Civilization he hoped for a “more organic technology”, writing: “We must turn society from its feverish preoccupation with money-making inventions, goods, profits, salesmanship, symbolic representations of wealth to the deliberate promotion of the more humane functions of life.”
But in the 1960s and ‘70s, “he shared with many others a widespread disillusion with technology”:
The physicists who made the bomb were themselves complicit in “a horrendous megamachine”:
Mumford wrote much about “megamachines”:
In a perfect expression of fatalism and defeatism, Mumford described society using “the metaphor of an automobile, filled with passengers and without a steering wheel, rushing downhill toward an abyss.”
Jaques Ellul sounded similar themes in The Technological Society: “All-embracing technological systems had swallowed up the capitalistic and socialistic economies, and were, for Ellul, a far greater threat to our freedom of action than authoritarian politics.” He, too, had a defeatist view of technology:
He also lamented celebrations of technology:
Hughes clarifies that “Ellul was not referring to political freedom but to freedom from the deterministic forces of technology.”
Summing up:
Who, then, was the enemy?
Some of the activists of the ‘60s were influenced by these writers and “began to see modern technology, especially large technological systems, as the common cause of the cultural and social maladies about which they were protesting”:
Not all of these activists were against technology as such. Some of them merely called for “appropriate technology”:
Amory B. Lovins, a British physicist and representative of Friends of the Earth, wrote an influential article proposing taking a “soft path” for energy technology instead of the “hard path”:
In part 1 of this review we saw the efforts of Samuel Insull to build and scale the power grid; “Lovins is Samuel Insull stood on his head.”
In both Lovins and Whole Earth, we see the emphasis on technology that individuals without extensive training can understand, operate, and repair—technology without large technological systems. (Similarly, in the 1960s, the personal computer was welcomed as a way for the individual to have a tool previously available only to corporations and governments, who were the only ones who could afford to purchase and operate mainframes.)
But to resist massive systems requires massive counterforces, “analogous to those that killed off the dinosaurs.” Hughes cites the oil spills and smog alerts of the 1960s, the oil shocks of 1973, the Three Mile Island nuclear accident of 1979, and the Challenger space shuttle disaster of 1986 as episodes that contributed to the counterforce against the momentum of the century of innovation.
By the end of the ‘70s, even the elites, in official statements, were expressing concerns about the dangers of the new technological world. Sociologist Charles Perrow, who helped investigate Three Mile Island, wrote:
In 1982, even Admiral Hyman Rickover, father of the nuclear navy and of the first commercial nuclear power plant, told Congress that he was “not proud” of these accomplishments and that the US was not accounting for the danger of a radiation release. He added in informal testimony:
Concluding thoughts
Previously, discussing the reaction against technology in the 20th century, I said that part of the cause was the problems of that century, which people believed were created or exacerbated by technology: war, pollution, etc. This is partly right. But there is also a clear element here of reaction against “the system,” the “megamachine.” There is some idea that these things oppress the individual and shackle the human spirit.
And to some extent, I think that was a reaction not just against large technological systems, but against the social idea of technocracy, against centralization, against authoritarianism, against top-down control by elites. So to understand the counterculture, we need to understand technocracy. The rise of one and then the other is key to understanding the 20th century, and how we got to where we are.
Even though we talk of eras coming and going, they never completely leave us. Influences from each of these past eras are still around. The countercultural environmentalist movement is still around, in the opposition to fossil fuels and in the “degrowth” movement. Technocracy is still around, in Operation Warp Speed and quantitative easing and much more. Big private capitalist industrial systems are still around: think of Google’s network of data centers or Amazon’s network of fulfillment centers. Even the age of the heroic independent inventor-entrepreneur may still be with us: think of Elon Musk.
To understand the systems and attitudes that drive or inhibit progress today, we need to understand all of these overlapping eras, their progression, and how each grew out of, or in opposition to, what came before.
Hat-tip to James Pethokoukis and his newsletter “Faster, Please!” for bringing this book to my attention.