I sometimes get a little bit melancholic when I read about Dath Ilan. Humanity could be so much better off, but due to economic illiteracy, we can't have nice things.
Better to light a small flame than to curse the darkness. So if you had to build a model econoliterate city on earth, how would you go about it?
There's lots of micronations projects out there. What I'm interested in is:
- How do you keep the city econoliterate, immediately and a hundred years in the future.
- How do you make this practical to achieve - most micronations projects dont go anywhere, and are actively thwarted by governments.
I will not cease from mental fight,
Nor shall my pen sleep in my hand:
Till we have built Dath Ilan,
In this earths green & pleasant land.
Mu.
The unpopular answer is that Dath Ilan is a fantasy setting. It treats economics as central, when economics is really downstream of power. Your first question implies you understand that whatever "econoliteracy" is, it isn't a stable equilibrium. Your second question notices that governments are powerful enough to stop these experiments which are a threat to their power.
My background assumption is that any attempt at building prediction markets would either:
a) ...have little effect because it becomes another mechanism for actual power to manipulate procedural outcomes, most likely through selective subsidies, manipulation of the monetary supply, or education or social pressure resulting in all right minded people voting the way power centers want (ie, how things work today).
b) ...be used as a coordination points for a Point Deer Call Horse style coup (see also: how publicly betting in cockfights can be more about signaling alliances, not predictions).
c) ...devolves into Jim Bell's Assassination Markets because there actually isn't a way for power elites to prevent some markets from being made (and we should expect any general way to prevent some markets being made to go back to (a)).
[The comment this was a response to has disappeared and left this orphaned? Leaving my reply up.]
But there's no reason to believe that it would work out like this. He presents no argument for the above, just pure moral platitudes. It seems like a pure fantasy.
... (read more)