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I'm having a hard time answering this question with "yes" or "no":
The event in question is "Alice rolling a particular number on a 6-sided die." Bob, not knowing what Alice rolled, can talk about the probabilities associated with rolling a fair die many times, and base whatever decision he has to make from this probability (assuming that she is, in fact, using a fair die). Depending on the assumed complexity of the system (does he know that this is a loaded die?), he could convolute a bunch of other probabilities together to increase the chances that his decision is accurate.
Yes... I guess?
(Or, are you referring to something like: If Alice rolled a 5, then there is a 100% chance she rolled a 5?)
Well, the key point here is whether the word "probability" can be applied to things which already happened but you don't know what exactly happened. You said
which implies that probabilities apply only to the future. The question is whether you can speak of probabilities as lack of knowledge about something which is already "fixed".
Another issue is that in your definition you just shifted the burden of work to the word "likely". What does it mean that an event is "likely" or "not likely" to happen?