Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses to the Paris attacks and the ISIS threat. It's published in the Sunday edition of The Plain Dealer, a major newspaper (16th in the US). This is part of my broader project, Intentional Insights, of conveying rational thinking, including about politics, to a broad audience to raise the sanity waterline.
I would say again that there's a lot of one sided analysis i.e. counting costs but not benefits, exemplar numbers plucked out of thin air without any sensitivity analysis or justification from base rates, suggested actions ("use covert operations to defeat ISIS") without any indication of whether they are feasible or worse than than the alternative you rejeced.
IMO you need to imagine a smart, rational person arguing against each point you make. In my head I use CarlShulman because he ferrets out fallacies like a bloodhound. Then you need to check whether their best argument is stronger than the original point you made, and in any case you need to anticipate that objection and put out the counterargument.
Space is limited in a 700 word op-ed, but if space is so limited that you can't really do a rational analysis then don't advertise it as such.
I hear you about not advertising it as a rational analysis, and that's not what I think I did. Instead, I stated I am writing about a rational response to the Paris attacks, as set against a specific narrative of saber-rattling. I was not attempting to give a full analysis of the situation.
I'm updating, though, on the need to give a more clear title and description. Thanks!