A few months back somebody posted an article by a scientist giving lower and upper bounds on the probability of superintelligence. He broke up the calculation as a Fermi calculation with three parts (EDIT: See LocustBeanGum's answer). Does anybody remember this article and if so can you provide a link?

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[-][anonymous]80

The original article; the LW link post.

Perhaps you mean this, but the probabilities involved in the argument are different. (human level AI will be built in 100 years; the AI will be able to undergo a recursive self-improvement in intelligence; this intelligence explosion will unpredictably transform our world)

Thanks, this is what I was looking for.