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[ETA: This question is specifically about risk analysis of long covid, given current knowledge. Discussion should be about things such as:

  • base rates
  • priors and posteriors for LC risk
  • evidence that would make one update in favor of certain new policies with regard to covid
  • other decision-relevant considerations.

Moderation guidelines have been added to reflect this.]

Much of the attention on here to the long 'rona [LC] seems to have fizzled out about a year ago. Zvi continued to occasionally report on it, but often in the form of roundly mocking poorly designed studies or sloppy conclusions. This study, also from last year (h/t Zvi), found 50 - 80% reduction in LC in fully vaxx'd folks.

A Q largely asking the same thing from last year.

This recent Zvi 'rona report cites a promising study on LC symptoms controlled against other viral infections. I do worry about Zvi having a sampling or reporting bias, I feel that a systematic review of these LC results would be a great service to the community and perhaps even humanity.

Having said that, this quote from Zvi's December is choice:

Long Infection is a thing across infections. Getting sick is not good for you. We do not pay enough attention to Long Infection, but Long Covid is not special.

There have also been a handful of LC doomers around these parts, eg, Siebe has a gloomy estimate of 1 - 15% chance of LC even among the vax'd.

I know talking about [long] covid after labor day is gauche, but it is still a thing, and naive waife that I am, I would have hoped a year later our civ's understanding of the risk profile would be "a year better." Whatever the heck that means.

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Any significant updates on long covid risk analysis?
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BrightCandle

90

The amount of people suffering has gone up substantially in the ONS (UK) report. December 2021 it was 1.2 million[1] and now its 2.2 million [2]. The ONS also captures data about sufferers a year ago and when we compare this stat there has been no recovery either at the 1 year mark. 75% of sufferers are affected day to day so its not just a cough for the majority its impacting peoples lives often very severely.

Scientifically speaking we aren't a lot closer to a treatment. There are a lot of trials this year which should get results mostly by early 2024 but most IMO wont be useful as they failed for ME/CFS. The most important finding last year I believe is Bhupesh Prusty finding HHV6 and EBV in the brains and brain stem of ME/CFS sufferers and none in controls. The same finding has been seen in autopsies of Long Covid sufferers too finding active Covid19 virus in various places in the body. This is likely the cause but treating it is going to be tough since the virus is in a mode where it hides in the cells in a post acute phase of infection.

So some progress has been made, the severity of symptoms have been tracked and validated and a lot of physical problems have been found in various research. But the root cause isn't a sure thing yet and there are no treatments yet. It has not really stopped impacting people.

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021

[2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/5january2023

[-]Richard Korzekwa 60

75% of sufferers are affected day to day so its not just a cough for the majority its impacting peoples lives often very severely.

The UK source you link for this month says:

The proportion of people with self-reported long COVID who reported that it reduced their ability to carry out daily activities remained stable compared with previous months; symptoms adversely affected the day-to-day activities of 775,000 people (64% of those with self-reported long COVID), with 232,000 (19%) reporting that their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities ha

... (read more)
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[-]Randomized, Controlled20

But what is the base rate? How do demographic factors affect the base rate? Vaccination status?

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Sameerishere

60

Your Local Epidemiologist looked at a recent meta analysis and concluded the following

"the risk of debilitating long Covid is double the risk of permanent impairment from driving. Risk of debilitating long Covid is much higher than getting injured during a house fire and about the same as getting a serious dog bite"

(Source: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/long-covid-an-update-and-gauging)

But the objections here need to be addressed, and suggest the risk could be significantly higher: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/long-covid-an-update-and-gauging/comment/11173302 (read through the back and forth under that comment... Jetelina has not responded to his last one) -- if anyone better at reading studies than I am has insight, I would be very grateful!

Based on this, and the fact that anecdotally in my peer group, the incidence of significant long COVID is trivial, I have moved to taking significant COVID risk where I get appreciable value from doing so (e.g. I will go to an indoor house party without a mask, or eat or drink indoors in a bar/restaurant on a date if my date wants to. But I still wear masks in grocery stores or on transit, err towards outdoor public dining when it's comfortable, etc because there's little benefit to not doing so, and I still think the likelihood of non-debilitating but significant long term health effects from COVID is non-trivial, and the risk of debilitating long COVID is more than vanishingly unlikely.)

[-]Randomized, Controlled10

This roughly corresponds to the risk stance I've been taking since finishing my primary course of vaxx.

I just tested + for the first time today. At the very least, this is comforting to read. Thanks!

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Seth Herd

21

In your question, you say that the Siebe post arrived at a 15% chance of long covid. That post in fact stated a 1% to 15% estimate, which is very different. Please edit your quote.

[-]Randomized, Controlled21

I wrote "estimate of up to 15% chance", which is compatible with what you're saying here. But I don't mind updating it to be more precise.

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Fractalideation

*

10

Hi there,

Newbie here, first post on LW.

Sorry in advance if I make some mistakes in using this website/forum, please let me know when/where relevant what I should do / shouldn't do when using the LW website/forum, thank you.

Jumping in on that thread as I happen to have a strong interest in AI since around 1992 and AGI, AC & TS since around 2004 in big part because of Eliezer's writings at that time (early/mid 2000s) then Ray's book and Ben's book in 2005, etc... In 2009 I have also made a bet with myself that the TS would happen in 2027 and I still stand by that timeframe specially when I see quick & major breakthrough AI/AGI advances like ChatGPT which begin to have the potential/ability to work/improve their own cognitive/metacognitive processes/algorithms/architecture/data/...

And I also happen to have ME/CFS since around December 2019 possibly as a result of long Covid (was very ill with an illness that exactly looked like Covid-19 in December 2019).

I also happen to have tinnitus (since December 2020) which is also a very complex & nefarious health condition.

I would love in the coming months/years to see AI/AGI being applied to these health conditions which are extremely complex etiologically and in terms of the very numerous, convoluted and (so far) murky biological and cerebral mechanisms involved.

Is any of you aware of any efforts using AI/AGI to try helping with solving ME/CFS and/or tinnitus?

And/or do you know any way to advocate for the use of AI/AGI to help trying solving these very complex health conditions?

Many thanks in advance for any clues with regard to these questions.

Edited: to mention important Ben's book in 2005 and own 2009 bet that TS would/will happen in 2027.

[-]Randomized, Controlled20

This comment was made before I updated the question to clarify what's in scope and added the moderation guidelines.

I'm sorry to hear about your health issues with LC. They sounds truly terrible. This question isn't addressed at the topic you're asking about, however.

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6Fractalideation
Hiya, Thank you for your kind words and clarifying the scope of your question and sorry for having slightly deviated away from it. When I have the time I will try to find or create a relevant thread and move my post in there if that is possible. In any case very glad to see long Covid and ME/CFS being discussed/addressed on LW, many thanks for that. If ever at some point I feel I can contribute in answering your question within its scope and I have the energy & time to do it, I will gladly do it. In the meantime I will read with interest any answers/comments from the participants to this (from a personal point of view at least) interesting and useful thread. Kind regards
2Randomized, Controlled
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