In the interest of science, I ran 10 more simulations with our submitted population. This is not to open a can of worms or to challenge the results in any way - we all knew we had to win on the first try!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mSqaNlo5KT9l9vmY3ckd8KSTXA0xOz0u/view
Some things that I observed:
- The results were highly sensitive to randomness. Almost no species survived consistently.
- Sometimes defenseless creatures survived and sometimes they didn't.
- LeavyTanky (ViktorThink) survived basically every time. Looks like there was no competition for the invincible leaf eater niche in the Rainforest (though plenty of leaf eaters abounded). I would say this is the strongest creature in the field of submissions based on my tests.
- Usually an apex predator survived (10 attack, 10 speed). Often it was the most successful creature in terms of total energy across all biomes that it spread to. I was usually seeing antivenom in an apex predator not being worth it, but the Cheetah had it and did well in several runs.
- Venomous creatures almost never survived.
- As a class, armored tanks were the majority of survivors. Occasionally a speeder would survive, but much less commonly.
- Usually, some mid-range tanks survived as well (~6 armor). This was often enough to stay ahead of predators while outcompeting invincible tanks.
- On average only about 15 species survived past generation 1000. 30 species NEVER survived this long together. If you combine species occupying the same niche, this number was barely more than 10.
- The tundra was always barren. The desert was always taken over by a single species.
- I was surprised to see the Dump omnivores survive many times (Garbage Disposal, and 2-8-0 algae-...). Creatures with more than a few food sources generally didn't do well, but the formula seemed decent in the Dump.
- Sometimes the coconuts got eaten! Not often, though.
- Often a 1 attack, 1 speed omnivore survived. Usually these took the place of defenseless creatures, but in one case they coexisted.
It might be fun to compete to design the creature that does the best against the 555-species field. I might also do some more experiments/analysis when I have some time - let me know if there's anything you're curious about.
Congrats to all the winners! Already looking forward to next year. Thanks lsusr for running this again this year!
It might be fun to compete to design the creature that does the best against the 555-species field.
Another interesting experiment would be to try to maximize the number of surviving species (starting either from the current set or from nothing).
Resolutions to my pregame prediction elicitation thingies, which I unvirtuously forgot to vote in myself:
Will at least 10 species survive to equilibrium?
True. 25 species were credited as winners in at least one biome:
Armadillo v2, Desert Tortoise1, Desert Tortoise2, Rock Beetle, Sol Invictus, Super-Armor Fish, Soonbegon, Barnacle, Spanish Beard, Tilli, Seed Beetle, Mutant Two-Headed Speed Snail, Nuclear Waste, Forest Finch, Brown Bear, Trash Slime, Snark, Booyahs, Venomoth, Locust Eater Eater, Hopsplitter, mediocre 1-3-s, Venomous Snark, Cutiefly, Forest Tribble1
Soonbegon didn't "survive to equilibrium" despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn't count it.
Will at least 30 species survive to equilibrium?
False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I'm not going to do that.
Will at least one creature exist in each biome at equilibrium?
False. Tundra has no creatures at equilibrium. Shore has no permanent residents, but it definitely looks like the other biomes supply it enough for it to always have creatures.
Will a species with no armor, weapons, or speed survive to equilibrium?
True. Three defenseless seed-eating species survived.
Will a species with an energy value of 20 or greater survive to equilibrium?
True. Booyahs just barely makes it: 2 for attack, 10 for speed, 6 for carrion, 2 for heat resistance, 0.1 base rate, total of 20.1. No other surviving species is that expensive. Soonbegon also costs 20.1.
Will a species with 1 or more armor survive to equilibrium?
True. When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.
Will a species with venom survive to equilibrium?
True. Venomoth and Venomous Snark had venom and survived. (Soonbegon also had venom). At equilibrium the only venom predation is Venomoth->Locust Eater Eater, but venom also protects these species from the Brown Bear and the Booyahs.
Will a pure predator with no foraging adaptations survive to equilibrium?
True. Brown Bear is the only one, but with little predatory competition it thrived in three different biomes.
Here's our Brier scores for our predictions:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qhuACrtD0esgCqz8rQvYcZOC0I1y1l66/edit#gid=225287990
The defenseless creature result really surprised most of us. Well done, aphyer, you knew what was up.
False. You could make it true by deciding to count species that won in multiple biomes once for each biome they won in, but I'm not going to do that.
I'm giving myself credit for a much better score than that. ;)
Edit: as per elspood's simulations, I am revoking all of my supposed credit.
Not well enough to get more than one animal to survive, alas.
The one thing I did manage to improve my survival odds by doing was steering clear of the Tundra...even after the buff to Lichen (prior to which Tundra was mathematically impossible to survive) it seemed pretty likely that even a single non-trivial Tundra predator being submitted would inevitably wipe the whole region out. It looked like...rather a lot of people submitted distinctly non-trivial predators there.
Soonbegon didn't "survive to equilibrium" despite being called a winner, so I probably shouldn't count it.
I think it did survive in the Benthic?
When I was theorycrafting I thought armor was trash, but I have been proven very wrong. Armor is the cheapest way to be invincible, and every surviving species has either 0 or 10 armor.
I thought so too. I was surprised by how useful Armor was.
I reimplemented the game in vanilla Python and managed to simulate it several hundred times with ~10k random species for a total of hundreds of thousands of generations.
Unfortunately, I didn't read Hylang documentation carefully and thought foragers could simultaneously eat one of every food available, instead of just the most nutritious one...
Only my throwaway locust clone survived under the real rules. :'(
Hoo, my entry Rainforest, Rainforest
When you gonna run out of time, my Rony?
Hoo, you eat both grass and seeds, grass and seeds
Two meals on which you can dine, my Rony
Hope you never stop, keep it up, such a fertile find
Try to get away from a touch predatory kind
My, my, my, my, woo!
M-m-m-my poor Rony
Flying with a speed of four, speed of four
Flying all the way to Grassland, my Rony
Find another place to thrive, place to thrive
Assuming you can survive, my Rony
Hope you never stop, keep it up, reach stability
Validate ecosys-stemic suitability
My, my, my, my, woo!
M-m-m-my poor Rony
Generation count, passing by, fourteen hundred
May be just a matter of time, my Rony?
Is it d-d-destiny, d-destiny
Or it is just a game in my mind, my Rony?
M-m-m-my poor Rony
Shore
The Shore is an inhospitable wasteland. Algae is available, but it's not very nitrutious. Coconuts offer an even worse calories-to-digestion ratio.
No coconut eaters got established in the Human Garbage Dump, which means no coconut eaters got established in the River or Shore instead. The only available food is algae. The Shore is basically a small bit of Ocean biome with ⅒ of the algae. The algae-eating winner of our Ocean competition has zero speed so it cannot migrate to the Shore.
To top all of it off, predators migrate in from both sea and land.
Soonbegons migrate from time to time to eat the Detritus. Otherwise, the Shore is mostly a graveyard.
Winners?
Soonbegons (kind of) by Martin Randall.
Grassland
The grassland has lots of grass and even more seeds.
The Grassland took 500 turns to establish an equilibrium.
Generations 1-500
Generations 500-2000
The grassland establishes an equilibrium. The only native species left is the Hopsplitter.
You can't see it but there's a single Venomoth on the bottom of the graph.
Winners
Temperate Forest
The temperate forest has lots of leaves and significant seeds.
Generations 1-200
The population crows, crashes, and then grows again.
Generations 200-2000
The system achieves stability stable (except for a random walk among equals).
Winners
None of our final species have venom or antivenom.
An honorable mention goes to the N054J's Forest Tribble2 which is identical to the Cutiefly and the Forest Tribble1.
Rainforest
The Rainforest has lots of leaves and grass but few seeds.
Generations 0-1000
It takes 1000 generations to establish an introduction.
Generations 1000-9000
The population oscillates from there. A small number of Snarks and Brown Bears are not visible.
Winners