Why Isn't Tesla Level 3?
10Dagon
6Logan Zoellner
9jefftk
3CstineSublime
3Viliam
1CstineSublime
2Dave92F1
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Yeah, there's a lot of similarity with other human-level cognitive domains. We seem to be in the center of a logistic curve - massive very recent progress, but an unknown and likely large amount of not-yet-solved quality, reliability, and edge-case-safe requirements.
20 years ago, it was pure science fiction. 10 years ago it was "just an engineering problem, but a big one", 5 years ago it was "need to fine-tune and deal with regulation". Now it's ... "we can't say we were wrong, and we've improved massively AGAIN, but it feels like the end-state is still out of reach".
For a lot of applications, FSD IS ALREADY safer than human drivers. But it's not as resilient and flexible, and it's much worse than human in very rare situations, like person stuck under wheels in sensor-free location. The goalpost remains rather undefined, and I suspect it's quite a ways out yet.
I do put some probability into a discontinuity - some breakthrough or change in pattern that near-instantaneously makes it so much obviously better than a human in all relevant ways that it's just no longer a question. It's, of course, impossible to put a timeline on that. I'd probably guess another 8-20 years on the current path, could be as fast as 2026 if something major changes.
Note that this is only slightly different from my AGI estimates - I'd say 15-40 years on current path (or as early as 5 if something big changes) for significant amounts of human functioning is no longer economically or socially desired - the shift from AI as assistants and automation to AI as autonomous full-stack organizations.
This similarity makes me suspicious that I'm just using cached heuristics, but also may be just that they're similar kinds of tasks in terms of generality and breadth of execution.
Tesla fans will often claim that Tesla could easily do this
Tesla fan here.
Yes, Tesla can easily do the situation you've described (stop and go traffic on a highway in good weather with no construction). With higher reliability than human beings.
I suspect the reason Tesla is not pursuing this particular certification is because given the current rate of progress it would be out of date by the time it was authorized. There have been several significant leaps in capabilities in the last 2 years (11->12, 12->12.6, and I've been told 12->13). Most likely Elon (who has undeniably been over optimistic) is waiting to get FSD certified until it is at least level 4.
It's worth noting that Tesla has significantly relaxed the requirements for FSD (from "hands on wheel" to "eyes on road") and has done so for all circumstances, not just optimal ones.
1I don't think this makes much sense. In a regulated industry, you want to build up a positive reputation and working relationship with the regulators, where they know what to expect from you, are familiar with your work and approach, have a sense of where you're going, and generally like and trust you. Engaging with them early and then repeatedly over a long period seems like a way better strategy than waiting until you have something extremely ambitious to try to get them to approve.
Watching that Cruise video for the first time, I'm struck by how patient and conservative the system is when encountering obstacles or waiting for pedestrians to cross, it doesn't try to sneak or squeeze past double parked vans in a hurry for example.
I wonder how much safer roads could be if human drivers were all a little more patient? Although, as I understand it the chief benefit of FSD is that it is highly predictable and doesn't make impulsive choices.
I wonder how much safer roads could be if human drivers were all a little more patient?
Depends on country. In my opinion, in Switzerland, the human drivers are already almost perfect. In Italy, I was surprised that most of them somehow manage to survive the day.
It's very interesting how much culture (and I suppose population density and jurisdiction too) can affect driving style.
As for Italy, there's a throwaway line in a Dave Snowden talk about how drivers in Italy (Naples? Rome?) can be observed to follow the same basic 'rules' as a birds in a flock - kind of a Simon's Ant thing about how seemingly complex behavior actually is operating on a small set of simple rules.
In most circumstances Tesla's system is better than human drivers already.
But there's a huge psychological barrier to trusting algorithms with safety (esp. with involuntary participants, such as pedestrians) - this is why we still have airline pilots. We'd rather accept a higher accident rate with humans in charge than a lower non-zero rate with the algorithm in charge. (If it were zero, that would be different, but that seems impossible.)
That influences the legal barriers - we inevitably demand more of the automated system than we do of human drivers.
Finally, liability. Today drivers bear the liability risk for accidents, and pay for insurance to cover it. It seems impossible to justify putting that burden on drivers when drivers aren't in charge - those who write the algorithms and build the hardware (car manufacturers) will have that burden. And that's pricey, so manufacturers don't have great incentive to go there.
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