Painscience.com and Hargrove's "A Guide To Better Movement" are pretty good for a model of predictive processing and the roll of the nervous system in chronic pain and movement. I still don't feel like I have a good model of bone and joint health in general, however. Eg, I'm currently nursing a flare up of patelo-femoral pain in my left knee. I've done a number of things over the past few months to deal with it, with some success, including buying and reading Painscience's book length patelo-femoral tutorial. Recently I've had a bit of pain in my foot, possibly in the tibiocalcaneal or tibionavicular tendons. I find that even though I now know a fair amount about PFS and the way the nervous system processes pain, these models don't generalize well to sporadic, idiopathic pain in another joint.
Possibly the answer is: "lol that model doesn't exist", or "lol wanna get a phd?" but if there are good resources, I'd be an eager consumer.
A sub-question that I'm particularly interested in is: what, if anything, is know about the relationship between base line muscle tone and joint issues? I have good reason to think my baseline muscle tone is higher than average.
I'd also say that, just on a basic level, this is poor calibration. I would put "sun doesn't rise tomorrow" at... 1 in 10 million? 1 in 100 million? Maybe those are even too high, 1 in 10 million events do happen with some frequency, but maybe I'm just fundamentally deluded about the nature of reality right now. If my understanding of history and physics isn't completely borked, I'd be comfortable pushing that probability down to below 1 in a billion or lower.
I'm also comfortable predicting at 90% certainty that a majority of other LWers would also have probabilities for sun-doesn't-rise tomorrow below 1 in 1 million.
These are.. like.. real brute facts about reality kinds of things. General relativity. Newtonian mechanics. QM. Nuclear physics. That's the kind of foundation you can build 1 in 100 million-ish certainty on. Stuff with biology is in an entirely different realm of (un)certainties.