I got lots of helpful comments in my first post, so I'll try a second: I want to develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate a presidency. Coming up with criteria and metrics on the economy is pretty easy, but I'd like to ask for suggestions on proxies for evaluating:
- Racial relations;
- Gender equality;
- Impact on free trade / protectionism;
- Education;
- Any other significant factor that would determine whether a president is successful.
Worth noting that many of those Ds are in states that voted R in the most recent election. We should increase predicted probability they will lose now, and not be surprised or change our evaluation of evidence when it actually happens.
Yup. Key point here: no, the Democrats are not in any way likely to retake the senate in 2018, even if Donald Trump is conspicuously disappointing.
(If, as some have suggested might transpire, he is not so much "conspicuously disappointing" as "full-on fascist totalitarian dictator" then that might bring enough unpopularity to others in his party -- but in that case I wouldn't be too optimistic about the prospects for improving anything by voting, no matter what the result.)