I made a list of mental operations utilized in forecasting, inspired by Scott Alexander and Gwern and I'd like to find out which work the best.

If you're a Manifold user with at least 10 bets on your account and 6 minutes to spare, you can fill out my survey here (deadline: March 8).

You can also bet on the results on Manifold here.

(It's not very important but it might be fun)

Thank you!