How can you precommit to something where the commitment is carried out only after you know your commitment strategy has failed?
It would seem to make it impossible to commit to blackmail when the action of blackmail has negative utility. How can you possibly convince your rational future self to carry out a commitment they know will not work?
You could attempt to adopt a strategy of always following your commitments. From your current perspective this is useful but once you have learned your strategy has failed, what's to prevent you from just disregarding the strategy?
If a commitment strategy will fail you don't want to make the commitment but if you will not follow the commitment even when the strategy fails then you never made the commitment in the first place.
For example, in nuclear war why would you ever retaliate? Once you know your strategy of nuclear deterrence has failed, shooting back will only cause more civilian casualties.
I'm not saying commitments aren't useful, I'm just not sure how you can make them. How do you prevent your future self from reasoning their way out of them?
I apologize if reading this makes it harder for any of you to make precommitments. I'm hoping someone has a better solution than simply tricking your future self.
No, this is a correct use of LCPW. The question asked how keeping to precommitments is rationally possible, when the effects of carrying out your threat are bad for you. You took one example and explained why, in that case, retaliating wasn't in fact negative utility. But unless you think that this will always be the case (it isn't) the request for you to move to the LCPW is valid.
Yes I think that is right. Perhaps the LCPW in this case is one in which retaliation is guaranteed to mean an end to humanity. So a preference for one set of values over another isn't applicable. This is somewhat explicit to a mutually assured destruction deterrence strategy but nonetheless once the other side pushes the button you have a choice to put an end to humanity or not. Its hard to come up with a utility function that prefers that even considering a preference for meeting pre-commitments. Its like the 0th law of robotics - no utility evaluation can exceed the existence of humanity.