Having found myself repeating the same points/claims in various conversations about what NN learning is like (especially around singular learning theory), I figured it's worth writing some of them down. My typical confidence in a claim below is like 95%[1]. I'm not claiming anything here is significantly novel. The claims/points:
(* but it looks to me like learning theory is unfortunately hard to make relevant to ai alignment[9])
these thoughts are sorta joint with Jake Mendel and Dmitry Vaintrob (though i'm making no claim about whether they'd endorse the claims). also thank u for discussions: Sam Eisenstat, Clem von Stengel, Lucius Bushnaq, Zach Furman, Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel, Kirke Joamets
with the important caveat that, especially for claims involving 'circuits'/'structures', I think it's plausible they are made in a frame which will soon be superseded or at least significantly improved/clarified/better-articulated, so it's a 95% given a frame which is probably silly ↩︎
train loss in very overparametrized cases is an exception. in this case it might be interesting to note that optima will also be off at infinity if you're using cross-entropy loss, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06657 ↩︎
also, gradient descent is very far from doing optimal learning in some solomonoff sense — though it can be fruitful to try to draw analogies between the two — and it is also very far from being the best possible practical learning algorithm ↩︎
by it being a law of large numbers phenomenon, i mean sth like: there are a bunch of structures/circuits/pattern-completers that could be learned, and each one gets learned with a certain probability (or maybe a roughly given total number of these structures gets learned), and loss is roughly some aggregation of indicators for whether each structure gets learned — an aggregation to which the law of large numbers applies ↩︎
to say more: any concept/thinking-structure in general has to be invented somehow — there in some sense has to be a 'sensible path' to that concept — but any local learning process is much more limited than that still — now we're forced to have a path in some (naively seen) space of possible concepts/thinking-structures, which is a major restriction. eg you might find the right definition in mathematics by looking for a thing satisfying certain constraints (eg you might want the definition to fit into theorems characterizing something you want to characterize), and many such definitions will not be findable by doing sth like gradient descent on definitions ↩︎
ok, (given an architecture and a loss,) technically each point in the loss landscape will in fact have a different local neighborhood, so in some sense we know that the probability of getting to a point is a function of its neighborhood alone, but what i'm claiming is that it is not nicely/usefully a function of its neighborhood alone. to the extent that stuff about this probability can be nicely deduced from some aspect of the neighborhood, that's probably 'logically downstream' of that aspect of the neighborhood implying something about nice paths to the point. ↩︎
also note that the points one ends up at in LLM training are not local minima — LLMs aren't trained to convergence ↩︎
i think identifying and very clearly understanding any toy example where this shows up would plausibly be better than anything else published in interp this year. the leap complexity paper does something a bit like this but doesn't really do this ↩︎
i feel like i should clarify here though that i think basically all existing alignment research fails to relate much to ai alignment. but then i feel like i should further clarify that i think each particular thing sucks at relating to alignment after having thought about how that particular thing could help, not (directly) from some general vague sense of pessimism. i should also say that if i didn't think interp sucked at relating to alignment, i'd think learning theory sucks less at relating to alignment (ie, not less than interp but less than i currently think it does). but then i feel like i should further say that fortunately you can just think about whether learning theory relates to alignment directly yourself :) ↩︎
Simon-Pepin Lehalleur weighs in on the DevInterp Discord:
I think his overall position requires taking degeneracies seriously: he seems to be claiming that there is a lot of path dependency in weight space, but very little in function space 😄
In general his position seems broadly compatible with DevInterp:
This perspective certainly is incompatible with a naive SGD = Bayes = Watanabe's global SLT learning process, but I don't think anyone has (ever? for a long time?) made that claim for non toy models.
It seems that the difference with DevInterp is that
Ok, no pb. You can also add the following :
I am sympathetic but also unsatisfied with a strong empiricist position about deep learning. It seems to me that it is based on a slightly misapplied physical, and specifically thermodynamical intuition. Namely that we can just observe a neural network and see/easily guess what the relevant "thermodynamic variables" of the system.
For ordinary 3d physical systems, we tend to know or easily discover those thermodynamic variables through simple interactions/observations. But a neural network is an extremely high-dimensional system which we can only "observe" through mathematical tools. The loss is clearly one such thermodynamic variable, but if we expect NN to be in some sense stat mech systems it can't be the only one (otherwise the learning process would be much more chaotic and unpredictable). One view of DevInterp is that we are "just" looking for those missing variables...
I'd be curious about hearing your intuition re " i'm further guessing that most structures basically have 'one way' to descend into them"
I think the world would probably be much better if everyone made a bunch more of their notes public. I intend to occasionally copy some personal notes on ML(?) papers into this thread. While I hope that the notes which I'll end up selecting for being posted here will be of interest to some people, and that people will sometimes comment with their thoughts on the same paper and on my thoughts (please do tell me how I'm wrong, etc.), I expect that the notes here will not be significantly more polished than typical notes I write for myself and my reasoning will be suboptimal; also, I expect most of these notes won't really make sense unless you're also familiar with the paper — the notes will typically be companions to the paper, not substitutes.
I expect I'll sometimes be meaner than some norm somewhere in these notes (in fact, I expect I'll sometimes be simultaneously mean and wrong/confused — exciting!), but I should just say to clarify that I think almost all ML papers/posts/notes are trash, so me being mean to a particular paper might not be evidence that I think it's worse than some average. If anything, the papers I post notes about had something worth thinking/writing about at all, which seems like a good thing! In particular, they probably contained at least one interesting idea!
So, anyway: I'm warning you that the notes in this thread will be messy and not self-contained, and telling you that reading them might not be a good use of your time :)
@misc{radhakrishnan2023mechanism, title={Mechanism of feature learning in deep fully connected networks and kernel machines that recursively learn features}, author={Adityanarayanan Radhakrishnan and Daniel Beaglehole and Parthe Pandit and Mikhail Belkin}, year={2023}, url = { https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.13881.pdf } }
Let denote the activation vector in layer on input , with the input layer being at index , so . Let be the weight matrix after activation layer . Let be the function that maps from the th activation layer to the output. Then their Deep Neural Feature Ansatz says that (I'm somewhat confused here about them not mentioning the loss function at all — are they claiming this is reasonable for any reasonable loss function? Maybe just MSE? MSE seems to be the only loss function mentioned in the paper; I think they leave the loss unspecified in a bunch of places though.)
Letting be a SVD of , we note that this is equivalent to i.e., that the eigenvectors of the matrix on the RHS are the right singular vectors. By the variational characterization of eigenvectors and eigenvalues (Courant-Fischer or whatever), this is the same as saying that right singular vectors of are the highest orthonormal directions for the matrix on the RHS. Plugging in the definition of , this is equivalent to saying that the right singular vectors are the sequence of highest-variance directions of the data set of gradients .
(I have assumed here that the linearity is precise, whereas really it is approximate. It's probably true though that with some assumptions, the approximate initial statement implies an approximate conclusion too? Getting approx the same vecs out probably requires some assumption about gaps in singular values being big enough, because the vecs are unstable around equality. But if we're happy getting a sequence of orthogonal vectors that gets variances which are nearly optimal, we should also be fine without this kind of assumption. (This is guessing atm.))
Assuming there isn't an off-by-one error in the paper, we can pull some term out of the RHS maybe? This is because applying the chain rule to the Jacobians of the transitions gives , so
Wait, so the claim is just which, assuming is invertible, should be the same as . But also, they claim that it is ? Are they secretly approximating everything with identity matrices?? This doesn't seem to be the case from their Figure 2 though.
Oh oops I guess I forgot about activation functions here! There should be extra diagonal terms for jacobians of preactivations->activations in , i.e., it should really say We now instead get This should be the same as which, with denoting preactivations in layer and denoting the function from these preactivations to the output, is the same as This last thing also totally works with activation functions other than ReLU — one can get this directly from the Jacobian calculation. I made the ReLU assumption earlier because I thought for a bit that one can get something further in that case; I no longer think this, but I won't go back and clean up the presentation atm.
Anyway, a takeaway is that the Deep Neural Feature Ansatz is equivalent to the (imo cleaner) ansatz that the set of gradients of the output wrt the pre-activations of any layer is close to being a tight frame (in other words, the gradients are in isotropic position; in other words still, the data matrix of the gradients is a constant times a semi-orthogonal matrix). (Note that the closeness one immediately gets isn't in to a tight frame, it's just in the quantity defining the tightness of a frame, but I'd guess that if it matters, one can also conclude some kind of closeness in from this (related).) This seems like a nicer fundamental condition because (1) we've intuitively canceled terms and (2) it now looks like a generic-ish condition, looks less mysterious, though idk how to argue for this beyond some handwaving about genericness, about other stuff being independent, sth like that.
proof of the tight frame claim from the previous condition: Note that clearly implies that the mass in any direction is the same, but also the mass being the same in any direction implies the above (because then, letting the SVD of the matrix with these gradients in its columns be , the above is , where we used the fact that ).
indexing error in the first displaymath in Sec 2: it probably should say '', not ''
I will be appropriating terminology from the Waluigi post. I hereby put forward the hypothesis that virtue ethics endorses an action iff it is what the better one of Luigi and Waluigi would do, where Luigi and Waluigi are the ones given by the posterior semiotic measure in the given situation, and "better" is defined according to what some [possibly vaguely specified] consequentialist theory thinks about the long-term expected effects of this particular Luigi vs the long-term effects of this particular Waluigi. One intuition here is that a vague specification could be more fine if we are not optimizing for it very hard, instead just obtaining a small amount of information from it per decision.
In this sense, virtue ethics literally equals continuously choosing actions as if coming from a good character. Furthermore, considering the new posterior semiotic measure after a decision, in this sense, virtue ethics is about cultivating a virtuous character in oneself. Virtue ethics is about rising to the occasion (i.e. the situation, the context). It's about constantly choosing the Luigi in oneself over the Waluigi in oneself (or maybe the Waluigi over the Luigi if we define "Luigi" as the more likely of the two and one has previously acted badly in similar cases or if the posterior semiotic measure is otherwise malign). I currently find this very funny, and, if even approximately correct, also quite cool.
Here are some issues/considerations/questions that I intend to think more about:
Suppose we are in a world where most top AI capabilities organizations are refraining from publishing their work (this could be the case because of safety concerns, or because of profit motives) + have strong infosec which prevents them from leaking insights about capabilities in other ways. In this world, it seems sort of plausible that the union of the capabilities insights of people at top labs would allow one to train significantly more capable models than the insights possessed by any single lab alone would allow one to train. In such a world, if the labs decide to cooperate once AGI is nigh, this could lead to a significantly faster increase in capabilities than one might have expected otherwise.
(I doubt this is a novel thought. I did not perform an extensive search of the AI strategy/governance literature before writing this.)
I'm updating my estimate of the return on investment into culture wars from being an epsilon fraction compared to canonical EA cause areas to epsilon+delta. This has to do with cases where AI locks in current values extrapolated "correctly" except with too much weight put on the practical (as opposed to the abstract) layer of current preferences. What follows is a somewhat more detailed status report on this change.
For me (and I'd guess for a large fraction of autistic altruistics multipliers), the general feels regarding [being a culture war combatant in one's professional capacity] seem to be that while the questions fought over have some importance, the welfare-produced-per-hour-worked from doing direct work is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the same quantities for any canonical cause area (also true for welfare/USD). I'm fairly certain one can reach this conclusion from direct object-level estimates, as I imagine e.g. OpenPhil has done, although I admit I haven't carried out such calculations with much care myself. Considering the incentives of various people involved should also support this being a lower welfare-per-hour-worked cause area (whether an argument along these lines gives substantive support to the conclusion that there is an order-of-magnitude difference appears less clear).
So anyway, until today part of my vague cloud of justification for these feels was that "and anyway, it's fine if this culture war stuff is fixed in 30 years, after we have dealt with surviving AGI". The small realization I had today was that maybe a significant fraction of the surviving worlds are those where something like corrigibility wasn't attainable but AI value extrapolation sort of worked out fine, i.e. with the values that got locked in being sort of fine, but the relative weights of object-level intuitions/preferences was kinda high compared to the weight on simplicity/[meta-level intuitions], like in particular maybe the AI training did some Bayesian-ethics-evidential-double-counting of object-level intuitions about 10^10 similar cases (I realize it's quite possible that this last clause won't make sense to many readers, but unfortunately I won't provide an explanation here; I intend to write about a few ideas on this picture of Bayesian ethics at some later time, but I want to read Beckstead's thesis first, which I haven't done yet; anyway the best I can offer is that I estimate a 75% of you understanding the rough idea I have in mind (which does not necessarily imply that the idea can actually be unfolded into a detailed picture that makes sense), conditional on understanding my writing in general and conditional on not having understood this clause yet, after reading Beckstead's thesis; also: woke: Bayesian ethics, bespoke: INFRABAYESIAN ETHICS, am I right folks).
So anyway, finally getting to the point of all this at the end of the tunnel, in such worlds we actually can't fix this stuff later on, because all the current opinions on culture war issues got locked in.
(One could argue that we can anyway be quite sure that this consideration matters little, because most expected value is not in such kinda-okay worlds, because even if these were 99% percent of the surviving worlds, assuming fun theory makes sense or simulated value-bearing minds are possible, there will be amazingly more value in each world where AGI worked out really well, as compared to a world tiled with Earth society 2030. But then again, this counterargument could be iffy to some, in sort of the same way in which fanaticism (in Bostrom's sense) or the St. Petersburg paradox feel iffy to some, or perhaps in another way. I won't be taking a further position on this at the moment.)
I proposed a method for detecting cheating in chess; cross-posting it here in the hopes of maybe getting better feedback than on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/xrs31z/a_proposal_for_an_experiment_well_data_analysis/