Take a random political issue with two sides A and B. Suppose that exactly one of the following would be true for me given my moral framework and unlimited time to process all public information about the issue:

  1. A is undoubtedly correct and (in a manner proportional to its importance) I should expend time/money/energy supporting A.
  2. A is probably correct, but it's not so clear that it's worth doing more than just voting in the direction of A.
  3. It's unclear whether A or B is correct and anyone who claims otherwise is either not doing good epistemics or taking a moral framework that isn't acceptable to me.
  4. B is probably correct, but it's not so clear that it's worth doing more than just voting in the direction of B.
  5. B is undoubtedly correct and (in a manner proportional to its importance) I should expend time/money/energy supporting B.

Let's also say that:

  1. Foreign actors will attempt to push people on twitter/reddit/etc. towards either (1) or (5), even if the answer is really (3) for them. Everyone I interact with is either partially influenced by these actors or discusses their opinions with people who are influenced by these actors.
  2. I have limited time to seriously explore a given issue.
  3. I would like to err on the side of approaching the center, but not drastically so.

The major issue to me here is (1), which might only get worse over time. I am aware of the post on epistemic learned helplessness by Scott Alexander, but I have become a little wary of certain academic fields. I have generally liked using Wikipedia to quickly explore issues, even though there are occasional biases (which have hurt this website in the past). I have also enjoyed reading blogs and opinions from people who appear highly educated and intelligent, but there are natural biases there as well.

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Viliam

30

If possible, the best defense is learning about the topics before they become controversial. Also, don't jump directly into the controversial part, but learn the fundamentals of the field first.

For example, the actual reason why I don't believe in homeopathy is not because I found the "anti-homeopathy" side more convincing in the debate than the "pro-homeopathy" side. I actually suspect that most doctors do not understand half of the stuff they do, and that a large part of medical best practice is simply placebo effect.

Instead, it is because at the elementary school I learned about atoms. How water is composed of molecules of H2O, how being liquid means that those molecules bounce around randomly. Homeopathy working would require this model to be completely wrong. But that model doesn't seem to be made by someone with an anti-homeopathy agenda, because it is used in so many unrelated contexts. Therefore, homeopathy is wrong.

Another example, evolution. Instead of jumping to the deep end (trying to make My Own Opinion™ on whether something could or couldn't have evolved, without actually understanding how biology works), I start simple: Things are made out of atoms, yes or no? Atoms make molecules, yes or no? DNA is a molecule, yes or no? DNA encodes the traits of the organism, yes or no? (Don't just say "yes", think about it. How specifically can different cells do different functions if all of them have the same DNA?) Is it plausible that sometimes the DNA copies incorrectly? It is plausible that sometime an error in copying provides an advantage to the organism? (Is that a frequent or a rare thing to happen? How would the organism with the magically improved DNA reproduce with the ones that have the original DNA?) Etc. Now if someone claims that evolution is not real, I can ask them which specific step of this chain was wrong.

Similarly, there are some controversial(?) topics in mathematics. Instead of engaging with them directly, I have downloaded a few university textbooks on topics that are prerequisites for that, and I am going through them step by step, actually doing the exercises, and probably being way more paranoid about them than an average student. That will take a lot of time. But I believe it is a time better spent than trying to address the controversies directly without having solid fundamentals.

Learning the fundamentals requires a lot of time, but it is a limited amount of time; I assume that at some moment I will know enough to make an expert judgment. Merely debating the topics may require less time in short term, but it is an unending process; there will always be yet another clever argument or yet another internet debate. Also, by learning the field I can become a (kind of) expert on the field, but by debating a controversial topic I become only... an expert on debating this one specific topic, in best case.

One thing that works in your favor, epistemically, is that in democracy it is not necessary to convince everyone; you just need to convince the majority. Most people are kinda stupid, so the arguments designed to convince them are usually not too complicated. If you actually listen to both sides, it is often possible to find the mistake. (Don't bother telling them, no one is going to listen.) Sometimes you find that both sides believe stupid things. Not in the "truth is exactly in the middle" way, but sometimes one side is like 90% right but really strongly insists on the one absurdity they hold dear, which the other side is happy to expose... and then connect to their own absurdities. Basically, don't assume that just because two people are arguing, one of them has to be right; you might be observing two idiots arguing for two different wrong things.

My other heuristic is to have a list of people I trust and ask about their opinion. Explaining how to make such list would be quite complicated, but similarly to the "learn the fundamentals" advice, those people should be experts on something related to the controversy, but not solely on the controversy itself. (You want people good at modeling things, not just good at arguing for/against a side of a controversy.)

The first line of your answer is something I hadn't thought of before and strikes me as really good advice.

I don't really agree with your point on fundamentals. I'm a big "fundamentals" guy - I did a Math Ph.D. and despite coming in with a big head start, it took me a disproportionately long time to even start research because I had to build up everything from scratch in my own words (which is just not feasible nowadays). I say this to indicate that I already err on the side of being overly-focused on fundamentals. (Unrelated but out of curiosity - which s... (read more)

4Viliam
Yes, it takes a crazy amount of time, so I choose my battles. In case of homeopathy and evolution I actually got the background knowledge regardless of controversy, as I was already interested in natural science. (Also, my wife is a biochemist, so I often defer to her expertise.) For political/economical things, my rule of thumb is to listen to people who mostly do the "boring" work. Such as, collecting information on corruption, which 99.99% of time everyone ignores, and 0.01% explodes into a huge political scandal. When the scandal happens, I trust the opinion of the guy who worked on all the non-scandalous stuff over anyone who only pays attention to the "cool" stuff. Basically, you need to know what is "the business as usual", and compare to that. For example, most people enter politics in order to make some kind of personal profit. But most of them stay within certain lines, and some of them go way beyond them. So instead of "did X embezzle money at Y", a better question is "did X embezzle the usual amount of money at Y, or did something extraordinary happen here"? If you ask the right question, you will see the greatest criminals. If you ask the wrong question, your attention will go where the media want it to go. Yeah, in a perfect world all crime would be prosecuted, but we don't live in that world. (For example the problem with Trump is not that he is bad, but that he is bad beyond usual. Some people believe that introducing random change to the system is good. I believe most of the time it only makes the system worse.) With math... well, there are topics that other people consider controversial, such as Cantor's diagonal argument or the Axiom of Choice. My approach is that instead of "joining a side", I want to get a better insight into how these things work, on the mechanical level. (LOL, you probably know about these things much more than I do, but telling me the answer wouldn't help me much unless I can derive it myself. And that's kinda my point: I
2notfnofn
I'll PM you about the math stuff when I have a chance. I would guess that the "devil" in Cantor diagonalization that you're unearthing is closely related to the impossibility of semantic closure in a mathematical language. I'm not a set theorist but I also spent some time thinking about these things and getting partial answers that I was okay walking away with. Do you have any sources you'd be willing to share for politics and economics?
3Viliam
I suspect this is all connected somehow: set theory, first-order logic, Gödel's incompleteness theorem, etc. I plan to read a textbook on logic next. Then model theory. Sorry, my sources for politics are local, so unless you are interested in the political situation of Slovakia (short version: it sucks; slightly longer version: some people believe that voting for populists is relatively harmless because they are all talk no action, well this is mostly true until suddenly it's not and then all competent people just scream helplessly) I don't have anything to offer. And even here, the source were the people (the kind that does the boring stuff) I spend a lot of time talking to, not any written source. One detail maybe: some people in politics may be easier to approach than they seem. (Then again, that's my local experience, maybe not true in USA.) For example, once I successfully invited our member of parliament to our local Less Wrong meetup, to tell us about some then current cause. It was surprisingly simple: I just messaged her on Facebook like "hey, we have a meetup of some smart people who like to discuss various things, and we would be happy to hear your opinion on X", and she was like "actually, I have a free evening that day, so unless something unexpected happens, I would be happy to meet you".
1ProgramCrafter
In fact, diag-a1. if you put the computable numbers in the table, and diag-a2. pretend that the assignment is computable also, and diag-a3. (optionally) pretend that procedure for looking up the row of specific number is computable also, then diag-l1. the inverted diagonal is computable by explicit construction, diag-l2. the inverted diagonal does not belong to the table, thus diag-t1. we have the contradiction (based on diag-l1 and diag-l2), diag-t2. (if diag-a3 holds) the contradicting place is computable as well. I agree with your view but that specific example was wrong!
1notfnofn
The inverted diagonal differs from every element in the table for any ordering of the computables (by construction). Try to actually pseudocode a program to get the nth digit of the nth computable in your arrangement without invoking a halting oracle.
1ProgramCrafter
1. Retrieve I-th computable from table: computable by assumption. 2. Get K-th digit from a given computable: computable by definition. 3. Get I-th digit of I-th computable: computable as composition of (1) and (2). 4. Invert given digit: trivially computable. 5. Get an inverted I-th digit of I-th computable: computable as composition of (3) and (4).   I've actually written formal refutation of any bijection between N and 2N in Idris 2. Demonstration total stands for functions which are defined everywhere on their stated domain (as opposed to partial), and computations for which are proven to always halt (if there's no such guarantee, function is covering). %default total means that all functions below must be total. Void type means that a contradiction was obtained from given arguments. %default total data Bijection : Type -> Type -> Type where ||| A bijection between two types. ||| @ a the first type ||| @ b the second type ||| @ fwd mapping from first type to the second ||| @ bck mapping from second type to the first ||| @ fb_producer proof that fwd . bck = id ||| @ bf_producer proof that bck . fwd = id DoMap : {0 a,b : Type} -> (fwd: a -> b) -> (bck: b -> a) -> (fb_producer: (av : a) -> (bck $ fwd av) = av) -> (bf_producer: (bv : b) -> (fwd $ bck bv) = bv) -> Bijection a b map_fneq : {0 a,b : Type} -> {f : a->b} -> {g : a->b} -> f = g -> (v:a) -> f v = g v map_fneq (Refl {x = f}) v = Refl bool_inv : {v : Bool} -> (v = not v) -> Void bool_inv {v = True} prf = uninhabited prf bool_inv {v = False} prf = uninhabited prf diagonal : (Bijection Nat (Nat -> Bool)) -> Void diagonal (DoMap f g _ bf_prf) = bool_inv conflict where H : Nat -> Bool H i = not $ f i i h_hi_by_idx : f (g H) (g H) = H (g H) h_hi_by_idx = map_fneq (bf_prf H) (g H) h_hi_by_def : H (g H) = (not $ f (g H) (g H)) h_hi_by_def = Refl conflict : f (g H) (g H) = (not $ f (g H) (g H)) conflict = trans h_hi_by_idx h_hi_b
1notfnofn
I interpreted your algorithm for listing computables to be something like "enumerate the Turing machines that output '.' then 0s and 1s and list what they print", without worrying about the fact that some computables repeat. This technically lists all computables even though some machines will get stuck in some non-halting behavior that prints nothing after printing finitely many 0s and 1s. But you can't figure out the nth digit of an arbitray thing in the list because you don't always know if a machine will continue to print 0s or 1s or get indefinitely "stuck". It seems that you actually meant that you could have an algorithm that begins by enumerating the Turing machines that print computables and never get stuck in some non-halting configuration. This can't be done. If you have any surjection: N→S⊂(N→{0,1})  and diagonalize against it, you know the result is not in S. This fact doesn't depend on the actual nature of the surjection N→S, just that S is the image. Here S is the computables.
1ProgramCrafter
I'm pretty sure my argument did not mention how computables are listed at all, rather proving that for any specific listing the inverse-diagonal is computable as well. Yes. However, it's the specific choice of set "computables" which creates the contradiction: I agree with "inverse-diagonal for rationals is an irrational number" and like. Once again: for any "user-provided" computable table of computable digit sequences, I can, in finite time, get value for any specific position in table; therefore, each digit of inverse sequence is computable; therefore, I conclude that the inverse-diagonal sequence is itself computable (if I'm not mistaken in definitions).
2notfnofn
My claim is that such a table does not exist because it leads to a contradiction. If you add it as an assumption, you can obtain a false conclusion because the assumption itself can never hold.

StartAtTheEnd

10

I think it's often the case that neither A nor B are true. Common opinions are shallow, often simplified and exaggerated or even entirely besides the point.
Now, you're asking what a good way to form opinions is, well, it depends on what you want.

Do you want to know which side you should vote for to bring the future towards the state that you want?
Do you want to figure out which side is the most correct?
Do you want to figure out the actual truth behind the political issue?
Do you want to hold an opinion which won't disrupt your social life too much or make you unpopular?

I expect that these four will bring you to different answers.

(While I think I understand the problem well, I can't promise that I have a good solution. Besides, it's subjective. Since the topic is controversial, any answer I give will be influenced by the very biases that we're potentially interested in avoiding)

By the way, personally, I don't care much what foreign actors (or team A and B) have to say about anything, so it's not a factor which makes a difference to me.

Edit: I should probably have submitted this as a comment and not an answer. Oh well, I will think up an answer if you respond.

It seems to me that you might not have read the question/premise carefully. If you did and stand by this answer/comment, let me know and I'll respond when I have time

1StartAtTheEnd
I misread a small bit, but I still stand by my answer. It is however still unclear to me if you value truth or not. You mention moral frameworks and opinions, but also sound like you want to get rid of biases? I think these conflict. I guess I should give examples to show how I think: * Suppose that climate change is real, but that the proposed causes and solutions are wrong. Or that for some problem X, people call for solution Y, but you expect that Y will actually only make X worse (or be a pretend-solution which gives people a false sense of security and which is only adopted because it signals virtue) * Suppose that X is slightly bad, but not really worth bothering about, however, team A thinks that X is terrible and team B thinks that A is the best thing ever. * Suppose that something is entirely up to definition, such that truth doesn't matter (for instance, if X is a mental illness or not). Also, suppose that whatever definition you choose will be perceived as either hatred or support. * I don't think it's good to get any opinions from the general population. If actual intelligent people are discussing an issue, they will likely have more nuanced takes than both the general population and the media. * Lets say that X personality trait is positively correlated with both intelligence and sexual deviancy. One side argues that this makes them good, another side argues that this makes them bad. Not only is this subjective, people would be confusing the utilitarian "good/bad" with the moral "good/bad" (easy example: Breaking a leg is bad, but having a broken leg does not make you a bad person).  I think being rational/unbiased results in breaking away from socities opinions about almost everything. I also think that being biased is to be human. The least biased of all is reality itself, and a lot of people seem really keen on fixing/correcting reality to be more moral. In my worldview, a lot of things stop making sense, so I don't bother with them, and I wo
1notfnofn
To clarify the question: I'm taking as an axiom that there are just two options A or B. So this isn't some big issue like "are democrats right on climate change" but something specific like "Is the climate changing". Then conditional on that being yes, "is a significant portion of this change human-induced" would be a separate A vs. B. Then conditional on that being "yes", we could get to "is X solution proposed going to do more harm than good according to my moral framework". About valuing truth or not: the idea is that one of those 5 options would hold for me if I was able to process all available "truth", but my goal is to approximate the correct option without spending that much time. Does that clarify things? For your bullet points: * addressed above * This is what I mean by "proportional to its importance" but an additional degree of uncertainty would be "how important is it". * This would not fit the axioms posed, but it's good that you brought that up. Arguing over definitions and semantics with edge cases is something that I'm only interested in if the question is if a certain law applies or not. * I overused the word bias in different settings. What I meant by "my intellectual sources could be biased" is that they could be biased in the same direction by hidden variables that I would want to control for. For instance my personal intellectual influences in a lot of areas are disproportionately Jewish and most pro-Palestine people I know are not people I look up to. * I hoped to get around this issue by fixing a moral framework. Do you think that doesn't suffice? If you don't have time to reply for an arbitrarily long amount of time, I'd still be happy to continue the conversation (even if that's like months from now)
2StartAtTheEnd
While you could format questions in such a way that you can divide them into A and B in a sensible manner, my usual reaction to thought experiments which seem to make naive assumptions about reality is that the topic isn't understood very deeply. The problem about looking at the surface (and this is mainly why average people don't hold valuable opinions) is that people conclude that solar panels, windmills and electric cars are 100% "green", without taking into account the production and recycling of these things. Many people think that charging stations for electric cars are green, but they don't see the coal powerplant which supplies power to the charging station. In other words "Does X solution actually work?" is never asked. Society often acts like me when I'm being neurotic. When I say "I will clean my house next week" I allow my house to stay messy while also helping myself to forget the manner for now. But this is exactly like saying "We plan to be carbon neutral by 2040" and then doing nothing for another 5 years. And yes, that does clarify things! * Valid, but knowing what's important might require understanding the problem in the first place. A lot of people want you to think that the thing they're yelling about is really important. * Then the axioms do not account for a lot of controversial subjects. I think the abortion debate also depends on definitions "at how many weeks can the child said to be alive?" "When is it your own body and when is it another body living inside you?" * I'm afraid it doesn't. I believe that morality has little to no correlation with intelligence, and that truth has little to do with morality. I'd go as far as to say that morality is one of the biases that people have, but you could call these "values" instead of biases. To actually answer your question, I think understanding human nature and the people you're speaking to is helpful. Also the advantages of pushing certain beliefs, and the advantages of holding certain beli

ChristianKl

00

The idea that either A, B or something in between has to be right is for many political issues wrong. It's possible that both A and B are wrong. I don't see why would would start with a different assumption.

For most issues, you are not required to have an opinion and it's often better to focus your energies on issues where you have unique insight or power to affect the issue than focusing on national level political issues where you have neither unique insight nor power to influence them in a meaningful way.

Foreign actors will attempt to push people on twitter/reddit/etc. towards either (1) or (5), even if the answer is really (3) for them. Everyone I interact with is either partially influenced by these actors or discusses their opinions with people who are influenced by these actors.

Why do you consider it better to be manipulated by domestic actors than foreign actors? Why does it matter whether the actors are foreign?

4 comments, sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

There are also times where "foreign actors" (I assume by that term you mean actors interested in muddying the waters in general, not just literal foreign election interference) know that it's impossible to push a conversation towards their preferred 1)A or 5)B, at least among informed/educated voices, so they try to muddy the waters and push things towards 3). Climate change[1] and covid vaccines are two examples that comes to mind. 

  1. ^

    Though the correct answer for climate change is closer to 2) than 1)

I actually just meant sowing discord by pushing half the population towards one and the other half towards the other in cases where it doesn't really affect them, but that's a good point. It's important to not be deceived into thinking issues are complicated when they are really not.

Some other comments already discussed the issue that often neither A nor B are necessarily correct. I'd like to add that there are many cases where the truth, if existent in any meaningful way, depends on many hidden variables, and hence A may be true in some circumstances, and B in some other circumstances, and it's a mistake to look for "the one static answer". Of course the question "when are A or B correct?" / "What does it depend on?" are similarly hard questions. But it's possible that this different framing can already help, as inquiring why the two sides believe what they believe can sometimes uncover these hidden variables, and it becomes apparent that the two sides' "why"s are not always opposite sides of a single axis.

Some issues that seem to be controversial are really taboo, or arise due to an underlying taboo. For this case I have two general recommendations here.

Related to this: Some opinions may be often expressed because of virtue signalling; e.g. because the opposite is taboo, or for other reasons. Hearing such opinions doesn't provide significant testimonial evidence for their truth, since people don't hold them because of evidence they encountered, but because they feel virtuous. Though it is not easy to recognize why particular opinions are being expressed, whether they are motivated by signalling or not.