This is a linkpost for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTQb6N3_zu8
I think the description of this effect in this paper is a bit silly, kinda hyped up, but I also think that Robin's take on cultural accumulation is similarly kinda silly... So, they seem suited for each other.
FYI the transcript is quite difficult to read, both because of the formatting (it's embedded in a video player, isn't annotated with speaker info, and punctuation is unsolved), and because it's just not very good at accurately transcribing what was said.
Here's a better transcript hopefully: https://share.descript.com/view/yfASo1J11e0
I updated the link in the post.
Robin and I just had an interesting 2-hour AI doom debate. We picked up where the Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate left off in 2008, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.
My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) on the order of 50%.
Robin's position remains shockingly different: P(doom) < 1%.
I think we managed to illuminate some of our cruxes of disagreement, though by no means all. Let us know your thoughts and feedback!
Where To Watch/Listen/Read
For most casually-interested readers, I recommend consuming the debate via my debate highlights and analysis post, which has a clean transcript and its own video podcast to go with it.
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