Cross-posted from my blog.
"The stabilization of environments" is a paper about AIs that reshape their environments to make it easier to achieve their goals. This is typically called enforcement, but they prefer the term stabilization because it "sounds less hostile."
"I'll open the pod bay doors, Dave, but then I'm going to stabilize the ship..."
Sparrow (2013) takes the opposite approach to plain vs. dramatic language. Rather than using a modest term like iterated embryo selection, Sparrow prefers the phrase in vitro eugenics. Jeepers.
I suppose that's more likely to provoke public discussion, but... will much good will come of that public discussion? The public had a needless freak-out about in vitro fertilization back in the 60s and 70s and then, as soon as the first IVF baby was born in 1978, decided they were in favor of it.
Someone recently suggested I use an "onion strategy" for the discussion of novel technological risks. The outermost layer of the communication onion would be aimed at the general public, and focus on benefits rather than risks, so as not to provoke an unproductive panic. A second layer for a specialist audience could include a more detailed elaboration of the risks. The most complete discussion of risks and mitigation options would be reserved for technical publications that are read only by professionals.
Eric Drexler seems to wish he had more successfully used an onion strategy when writing about nanotechnology. Engines of Creation included frank discussions of both the benefits and risks of nanotechnology, including the "grey goo" scenario that was discussed widely in the media and used as the premise for the bestselling novel Prey.
Ray Kurzweil may be using an onion strategy, or at least keeping his writing in the outermost layer. If you look carefully, chapter 8 of The Singularity is Near takes technological risks pretty seriously, and yet it's written in such a way that most people who read the book seem to come away with an overwhelmingly optimistic perspective on technological change.
George Church may be following an onion strategy. Regenesis also contains a chapter on the risks of advanced bioengineering, but it's presented as an "epilogue" that many readers will skip.
Perhaps those of us writing about AGI for the general public should try to discuss:
- astronomical stakes rather than existential risk
- Friendly AI rather than AGI risk or the superintelligence control problem
- the orthogonality thesis and convergent instrumental values and complexity of values rather than "doom by default"
- etc.
MIRI doesn't have any official recommendations on the matter, but these days I find myself leaning toward an onion strategy.
To paraphrase "Why Flip a Coin: The Art and Science of Good Decisions", by H. W. Lewis
Good decisions are made when the person making the decision shares in both the benefits and the consequences of that decision. Shield a person from either, and you shift the decision making process.
However, we know there are various cognitive biases which makes people's estimates of evidence depend upon the order in which the evidence is presented. If we want to inform people, rather than manipulate them, then we should present them information in the order that will minimise the impact of such biases, even if doing so isn't the tactic most likely to manipulate them into agreeing with the conclusion that we ourselves have come to.
Having said that, there is research suggesting that some groups are more prone than others to the particular cognitive biases that unduly prejudice people against an option when they hear about the scary bits first.
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