SlateStarCodex, EA, and LW helped me get out of the psychological, spiritual, political nonsense in which I was mired for a decade or more.
I started out feeling a lot smarter. I think it was community validation + the promise of mystical knowledge.
Now I've started to feel dumber. Probably because the lessons have sunk in enough that I catch my own bad ideas and notice just how many of them there are. Worst of all, it's given me ambition to do original research. That's a demanding task, one where you have to accept feeling stupid all the time.
But I still look down that old road and I'm glad I'm not walking down it anymore.
Epistemic activism
I think LW needs better language to talk about efforts to "change minds." Ideas like asymmetric weapons and the Dark Arts are useful but insufficient.
In particular, I think there is a common scenario where:
When solving the coordination problem would predictably lead to updating, then you are engaged...
Things I come to LessWrong for:
Cons: I'm frustrated that I so often play Devil's advocate, or else make up justifications for arguments under the principle of charity. Conversations feel profit-oriented and conflict-avoidant. Overthinking to the point of boredom and exhaustion. My default state toward books and people is bored skepticism and political suspicion. I'm less playful than I used to be.
Pros: My own ability to navigate life has grown. My imagination feels almost telepathic, in that I have ideas nobody I know has ever considered, and discover that there is cutting edge engineering work going on in that field that I can be a part of, or real demand for the project I'm developing. I am more decisive and confident than I used to be. Others see me as a leader.
Chemistry trick
Once you've learned to visualize, you can employ my chemistry trick to learn molecular structures. Here's the structure of Proline (from Sigma Aldrich's reference).
Before I learned how to visualize, I would try to remember this structure by "flashing" the whole 2D representation in my head, essentially trying to see a duplicate of the image above in my head.
Now, I can do something much more engaging and complex.
I visualize the molecule as a landscape, and myself as standing on one of the atoms. For example, perhaps I start by standing on the oxygen at the end of the double bond.
I then take a walk around the molecule. Different bonds feel different - a single bond is a path, a double bond a ladder, and a triple bond is like climbing a chain-link fence. From each new atomic position, I can see where the other atoms are in relation to me. As I walk around, I get practice in recalling which atom comes next in my path.
As you can imagine, this is a far more rich and engaging form of mental practice than just trying to reproduce static 2D images in my head.
A few years ago, I felt myself to have almost no ability to visualize. Now, I am able to do this with relative ease. So...
Intellectual Platforms
My most popular LW post wasn't a post at all. It was a comment on John Wentworth's post asking "what's up with Monkeypox?"
Years before, in the first few months of COVID, I took a considerable amount of time to build a scorecard of risk factors for a pandemic, and backtested it against historical pandemics. At the time, the first post received a lukewarm reception, and all my historical backtesting quickly fell off the frontpage.
But when I was able to bust it out, it paid off (in karma). People were able to see the relevance to an issue they cared about, and it was probably a better answer in this time and place than they could have obtained almost anywhere else.
Devising the scorecard and doing the backtesting built an "intellectual platform" that I can now use going forward whenever there's a new potential pandemic threat. I liken it to engineering platforms, which don't have an immediate payoff, but are a long-term investment.
People won't necessarily appreciate the hard work of building an intellectual platform when you're assembling it. And this can make it feel like the platform isn't worthwhile: if people can't see the obvious importance of what I'm doing,...
Math is training for the mind, but not like you think
Just a hypothesis:
People have long thought that math is training for clear thinking. Just one version of this meme that I scooped out of the water:
“Mathematics is food for the brain,” says math professor Dr. Arthur Benjamin. “It helps you think precisely, decisively, and creatively and helps you look at the world from multiple perspectives . . . . [It’s] a new way to experience beauty—in the form of a surprising pattern or an elegant logical argument.”
But math doesn't obviously seem to be the only way to practice precision, decision, creativity, beauty, or broad perspective-taking. What about logic, programming, rhetoric, poetry, anthropology? This sounds like marketing.
As I've studied calculus, coming from a humanities background, I'd argue it differently.
Mathematics shares with a small fraction of other related disciplines and games the quality of unambiguous objectivity. It also has the ~unique quality that you cannot bullshit your way through it. Miss any link in the chain and the whole thing falls apart.
It can therefore serve as a more reliable signal, to self and others, of one's own learning capacity.
Experiencing a subject like that can be training for the mind, because becoming successful at it requires cultivating good habits of study and expectations for coherence.
I ~completely rewrote the Wikipedia article for the focus of my MS thesis, aptamers.
Please tell me what you liked, and feel free to give constructive feedback!
While I do think aptamers have relevance to rationality, and will post about that at some point, I'm mainly posting this here because I'm proud of the result and wanted to share one of the curiosities of the universe for your reading pleasure.
You know what "chunking" means in memorization? It's also something you can do to understand material before you memorize it. It's high-leverage in learning math.
Take the equation for a t score:
That's more symbolic relationships than you can fit into your working memory when you're learning it for the first time. You need to chunk it. Here's how I'd break it into chunks:
Chunk 1:
Chunk 2:
Chunk 3:
Chunk 4:
[(Chunk 1) - (Chunk 2)]/sqrt(Chunk 3)
The most useful insight here is learning to see a "composite" as a "unitary." If we inspect Chunk 1 and see it as two variables and a minus sign, it feels like an arbitrary collection of three things. In the back of the mind, we're asking "why not a plus sign? why not swap out x1 for... something else?" There's a good mathematical answer, of course, but that doesn't necessarily stop the brain from firing off those questions during the learning process, when we're still trying to wrap our heads around these concepts.
But if we can see
as a chunk, a thing with a unitary identity, it lets us think with it in a more powerful way. Imagine if you were running a cafe, and you didn't perceive your dishes as "unitary." A pie wasn't a pie, it was a pan f...
A Nonexistent Free Lunch
On an individualPredictIt market, sometimes you can find a set of "no" contracts whose price (1 share of each) adds up to less than the guaranteed gross take.
Toy example:
There's always a risk of black swans. PredictIt could get hacked. You might execute the trade improperly. Unexpected personal expenses might force you to sell your shares and exit the market prematurely.
But excluding black swans, I though that as long as three conditions held, you could make free money on markets like these. The three conditions were:
In the toy example above, I calculated that you'd lose $0.10 x 10% = $0.01 to PredictIt's profit fee if you bought 1 of each "...
Simulated weight gain experiment, day 2
Background: I'm wearing a weighted vest to simulate the feeling of 50 pounds (23 kg) of weight gain and loss. The plan is to wear this vest for about 20 days, for as much of the day as is practical. I started with zero weight, and will increase it in 5 pound (~2 kg) increments daily to 50 pounds, then decrease it by 5 pounds daily until I'm back to zero weight.
So far, the main challenge of this experiment has been social. The weighted vest looks like a bulletproof vest, and I'm a 6' tall white guy with a buzzcut. My girlfriend laughed just imagining what I must look like (we have a long-distance relationship, so she hasn't seen me wearing it). My housemate's girlfriend gasped when I walked in through the door.
As much as I'd like to wear this continuously as planned, I just don't know if I it will work to wear this to the lab or to classes in my graduate school. If the only problem was scaring people, I could mitigate that by emailing my fellow students and the lab and telling them what I'm doing and why. However, I'm also in the early days of setting up my MS thesis research in a big, professional lab that has invested a lot of time and money ...
The Rationalist Move Club
Imagine that the Bay Area rationalist community did all want to move. But no individual was sure enough that others wanted to move to invest energy in making plans for a move. Nobody acts like they want to move, and the move never happens.
Individuals are often willing to take some level of risk and make some sacrifice up-front for a collective goal with big payoffs. But not too much, and not forever. It's hard to gauge true levels of interest based off attendance at a few planning meetings.
Maybe one way to solve this is to ask for escalating credible commitments.
A trusted individual sets up a Rationalist Move Fund. Everybody who's open to the idea of moving puts $500 in a short-term escrow. This makes them part of the Rationalist Move Club.
If the Move Club grows to a certain number of members within a defined period of time (say 20 members by March 2020), then they're invited to planning meetings for a defined period of time, perhaps one year. This is the first checkpoint. If the Move Club has not grown to that size by then, the money is returned and the project is cancelled.
By the end of the pre-defined planning period, there could be one of three majority...
What gives LessWrong staying power?
On the surface, it looks like this community should dissolve. Why are we attracting bread bakers, programmers, stock market investors, epidemiologists, historians, activists, and parents?
Each of these interests has a community associated with it, so why are people choosing to write about their interests in this forum? And why do we read other people's posts on this forum when we don't have a prior interest in the topic?
Rationality should be the art of general intelligence. It's what makes you better at everything. If practice is the wood and nails, then rationality is the blueprint.
To determine whether or not we're actually studying rationality, we need to check whether or not it applies to everything. So when I read posts applying the same technique to a wide variety of superficially unrelated subjects, it confirms that the technique is general, and helps me see how to apply it productively.
This points at a hypothesis, which is that general intelligence is a set of defined, generally applicable techniques. They apply across disciplines. And they apply across problems within disciplines. So why aren't they generally known and appreciated? Sh...
What gives LessWrong staying power?
For me, it's the relatively high epistemic standards combined with relative variety of topics. I can imagine a narrowly specialized website with no bullshit, but I haven't yet seen a website that is not narrowly specialized and does not contain lots of bullshit. Even most smart people usually become quite stupid outside the lab. Less Wrong is a place outside the lab that doesn't feel painfully stupid. (For example, the average intelligence at Hacker News seems quite high, but I still regularly find upvoted comments that make me cry.)
School teaches terrible reading habits.
When you're assigned 30 pages of a textbook, the diligent students read them, then move on to other things. A truly inquisitive person would struggle to finish those 30 pages, because there are almost certainly going to be many more interesting threads they want to follow within those pages.
As a really straightforward example, let's say you commit to reading a review article on cell senescence. Just forcing your way through the paper, you probably won't learn much. What will make you learn is looking at the citations as you go.
I love going 4 layers deep. I try to understand the mechanisms that underpin the experiments that generated the data that informed the facts that inform the theories that the review article is covering. When I do this, it suddenly transforms the review article from dry theory to something that's grounded in memories of data and visualizations of experiments. I have a "simulated lived experience" to map onto the theory. It becomes real.
There are many software tools for study, learning, attention programming, and memory prosthetics.
These complement analog study tools, such as pen and paper, textbooks, worksheets, and classes.
These tools tend to keep the user's attention directed outward. They offer useful proxy metrics for learning: getting through 20 flashcards per day, completing N Pomodoros, getting through the assigned reading pages, turning in the homework.
However, these proxy metrics, like any others, are vulnerable to streetlamp effects and Goodharting.
Before we had this abundance of analog and digital knowledge tools, scholars relied on other ways to tackle problems. They built memory palaces, visualized, looked for examples in the world around them, invented approximations, and talked to themselves. They relied on t...
Thoughts on cheap criticism
It's OK for criticism to be imperfect. But the worst sort of criticism has all five of these flaws:
I am absolutely guilty of having delivered Category 5 criticism, the worst sort of cheap shots.
There is an important tradeoff here. If standards are too high for critical commentary, it can chill debate and leave an impression that either nobody cares, everybody's on board, or the argument's simply correct. Sometimes, an idea ca...
Weight Loss Simulation
I've gained 50 pounds over the last 15 years. I'd like to get a sense of what it would be like to lose that weight. One way to do that is to wear a weighted vest all day long for a while, then gradually take off the weight in increments.
The simplest version of this experiment is to do a farmer's carry with two 25 lb free weights. It makes a huge difference in the way it feels to move around, especially walking up and down the stairs.
However, I assume this feeling is due to a combination of factors:
If I lost 50 pounds, that would likely come with strength training as well as dieting, so I might keep my current strength level while simultaneously being 50 pounds lighter. That's an argument in favor of this "simulated weight loss" giving me an accurate impression of how it would feel to really lose that much weight.
On the other hand, there would be no sudden tr...
Overtones of Philip Tetlock:
"After that I studied morning and evening searching for the principle,
and came to realize the Way of Strategy when I was fifty. Since then I
have lived without following any particular Way. Thus with the virtue of
strategy I practice many arts and abilities - all things with no teacher. To
write this book I did not use the law of Buddha or the teachings of Confucius, neither old war chronicles nor books on martial tactics. I take up
my brush to explain the true spirit of this Ichi school as it is mirrored in
the Way of heaven and Kwannon." - Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Five Rings
A "Nucleation" Learning Metaphor
Nucleation is the first step in forming a new phase or structure. For example, microtubules are hollow cylinders built from individual tubulin proteins, which stack almost like bricks. Once the base of the microtubule has come together, it's easy to add more tubulin to the microtubule. But assembling the base - the process of nucleation - is slow without certain helper proteins. These catalyze the process of nucleation by binding and aligning the first few tubulin proteins.
What does learning have in common with nucleation? When we learn from written sources, like textbooks or a lecture, the main sensory input we experience is typically a continuous flow of words and images. All these words and phrases are like "information monomers." Achieving a synthetic understanding of the material is akin to the growth of larger structures, the "microtubules." Exposing ourselves to more and more of a teacher's words or textbook pages does increase the "information monomer concentration" in our minds, and makes a process of spontaneous nucleation more likely.
At some point, synthesis just happens if we keep at it long enough, the same way that nucleation and the gr...
Personal evidence for the impact of stress on cognition. This is my Lichess ranking on Blitz since January. The two craters are, respectively, the first 4 weeks of the term, and the last 2 weeks. It begins trending back up immediately after I took my last final.
Does rationality serve to prevent political backsliding?
It seems as if politics moves far too fast for rational methods can keep up. If so, does that mean rationality is irrelevant to politics?
One function of rationality might be to prevent ethical/political backsliding. For example, let's say that during time A, institution X is considered moral. A political revolution ensues, and during time B, X is deemed a great evil and is banned.
A change of policy makes X permissible during time C, banned again during time D, and absolutely required for all upstanding folk during time E.
Rational deliberation about X seems to play little role in the political legitimacy of X.
However, rational deliberation about X continues in the background. Eventually, a truly convincing argument about the ethics of X emerges. Once it does, it is so compelling that it has a permanent anchoring effect on X.
Although at some times, society's policy on X contradicts the rational argument, the pull of X is such that it tends to make these periods of backsliding shorter and less frequent.
The natural process of developing the rational argument about X also leads to an accretion of arguments that are not only correct...
Thinking, Fast and Slow was the catalyst that turned my rumbling dissatisfaction into the pursuit of a more rational approach to life. I wound up here. After a few years, what do I think causes human irrationality? Here's a listicle.
Are rationalist ideas always going to be offensive to just about everybody who doesn’t self-select in?
One loved one was quite receptive to Chesterton’s Fence the other day. Like, it stopped their rant in the middle of its tracks and got them on board with a different way of looking at things immediately.
On the other hand, I routinely feel this weird tension. Like to explain why I think as I do, I‘d need to go through some basic rational concepts. But I expect most people I know would hate it.
I wish we could figure out ways of getting this stuff across that was fun, made it seem agreeable and sensible and non-threatening.
Less negativity - we do sooo much critique. I was originally attracted to LW partly as a place where I didn’t feel obligated to participate in the culture war. Now, I do, just on a set of topics that I didn’t associate with the CW before LessWrong.
My guess? This is totally possible. But it needs a champion. Somebody willing to dedicate themselves to it. Somebody friendly, funny, empathic, a good performer, neat and practiced. And it needs a space for the educative process - a YouTube channel, a book, etc. And it needs the courage of its convictions. The sign of that? Not taking itself too seriously, being known by the fruits of its labors.
Traditionally, things like this are socially achieved by using some form of "good cop, bad cop" strategy. You have someone who explains the concepts clearly and bluntly, regardless of whom it may offend (e.g. Eliezer Yudkowsky), and you have someone who presents the concepts nicely and inoffensively, reaching a wider audience (e.g. Scott Alexander), but ultimately they both use the same framework.
The inoffensiveness of Scott is of course relative, but I would say that people who get offended by him are really not the target audience for rationalist thought. Because, ultimately, saying "2+2=4" means offending people who believe that 2+2=5 and are really sensitive about it; so the only way to be non-offensive is to never say anything specific.
If a movement only has the "bad cops" and no "good cops", it will be perceived as a group of assholes. Which is not necessarily bad if the members are powerful; people want to join the winning side. But without actual power, it will not gain wide acceptance. Most people don't want to go into unnecessary conflicts.
On the other hand, a movement with "good cops" without "bad cops" wil...
Like to explain why I think as I do, I‘d need to go through some basic rational concepts.
I believe that if the rational concepts are pulling their weight, it should be possible to explain the way the concept is showing up concretely in your thinking, rather than justifying it in the general case first.
As an example, perhaps your friend is protesting your use of anecdotes as data, but you wish to defend it as Bayesian, if not scientific, evidence. Rather than explaining the difference in general, I think you can say "I think that it's more likely that we hear this many people complaining about an axe murderer downtown if that's in fact what's going on, and that it's appropriate for us to avoid that area today. I agree it's not the only explanation and you should be able to get a more reliable sort of data for building a scientific theory, but I do think the existence of an axe murderer is a likely enough explanation for these stories that we should act on it"
If I'm right that this is generally possible, then I think this is a route around the feeling of being trapped on the other side of an inferential gap (which is how I interpreted the 'weird tension')
Reliability
I work in a biomedical engineering lab. With the method I'm establishing, there are hundreds of little steps, repeated 15 times over the course of weeks. For many of these steps, there are no dire consequences for screwing them up. For others, some or all of your work could be ruined if you don't do them right. There's nothing intrinsic about the critical steps that scream "PAY ATTENTION RIGHT NOW."
If your chance of doing any step right is X%, then for some X, you are virtually guaranteed to fail. If in a day, there are 30 critical steps, then y...
Aging research is the wild west
In Modern Biological Theories of Aging (2010), Jin dumps a bunch of hypotheses and theories willy-nilly. Wear-and-tear theory is included because "it sounds perfectly reasonable to many people even today, because this is what happens to most familiar things around them." Yet Jin entirely excludes antagonistic pleiotropy, the mainstream and 70-year-old solid evolutionary account for why aging is an inevitable side effect of evolution for reproductive fitness.
This review has 617 citations. It's by a prominent researcher with a ...
Markets are the worst form of economy except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.
I'm annoyed that I think so hard about small daily decisions.
Is there a simple and ideally general pattern to not spend 10 minutes doing arithmetic on the cost of making burritos at home vs. buying the equivalent at a restaurant? Or am I actually being smart somehow by spending the time to cost out that sort of thing?
Perhaps:
"Spend no more than 1 minute per $25 spent and 2% of the price to find a better product."
This heuristic cashes out to:
Don't get confused - to attain charisma and influence, you need power first.
If you, like most people, would like to fit in, make friends easily, and project a magnetic personality, a natural place to turn is books like The Charisma Myth and How to Make Friends and Influence People.
If you read them, you'll get confused unless you notice that there's a pattern to their anecdotes. In all the success stories, the struggling main character has plenty of power and resources to achieve their goals. Their problem is that, somehow, they're not able to use that powe...
How I boosted my chess score by a shift of focus
For about a year, I've noticed that when I'm relaxed, I play chess better. But I wasn't ever able to quite figure out why, or how to get myself in that relaxed state. Now, I think I've done it, and it's stabilized my score on Lichess at around 1675 rather than 1575. That means I'm now evenly matched with opponents who'd previously have beaten me 64% of the time.
The trick is that I changed my visual relationship with the chessboard. Previously, I focused hard on the piece I was considering moving, almost as if...
Summaries can speed your reading along by
Some summaries are just BAD
The author is not the best person to write the summary. They don't have a clea...
Task Switching And Mentitation
A rule of thumb is that there's no such thing as multitasking - only rapid task switching. This is true in my experience. And if it's true, it means that we can be more effective by improving our ability to both to switch and to not switch tasks.
Physical and social tasks consume a lot of energy, and can be overstimulating. They also put me in a headspace of "external focus," moving, looking at my surroundings, listening to noises, monitoring for people. Even when it's OK to stop paying attention to my surroundings, I find it v...
There's a fairly simple statistical trick that I've gotten a ton of leverage out of. This is probably only interesting to people who aren't statistics experts.
The trick is how to calculate the chance that an event won't occur in N trials. For example, in N dice rolls, what's the chance of never rolling a 6?
The chance of a 6 is 1/6, and there's a 5/6 chance of not getting a 6. Your chance of never rolling a 6 is therefore .
More generally, the chance of an event X never occurring is . The chance of the event occurring at least once is&n...
If you are a waiter carrying a platter full of food at a fancy restaurant, the small action of releasing your grip can cause a huge mess, a lot of wasted food, and some angry customers. Small error -> large consequences.
Likewise, if you are thinking about a complex problem, a small error in your chain of reasoning can lead to massively mistaken conclusions. Many math students have experienced how a sign error in a lengthy calculation can lead to a clearly wrong answer. Small error -> large consequences.
Real-world problems often arise when we neglect,...
"Ludwig Boltzmann, who spent much of his life studying statistical mechanics, died in 1906, by his own hand. Paul Ehrenfest, carrying on the work, died similarly in 1933. Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics." - States of Matter, by David L. Goodstein
The structure of knowledge is an undirected cyclic graph between concepts. To make it easier to present to the novice, experts convert that graph into a tree structure by removing some edges. Then they convert that tree into natural language. This is called a textbook.
Scholarship is the act of converting the textbook language back into nodes and edges of a tree, and then filling in the missing edges to convert it into the original graph.
The mind cannot hold the entire graph in working memory at once. It's as important to practice navigating between concept...
I want to put forth a concept of "topic literacy."
Topic literacy roughly means that you have both the concepts and the individual facts memorized for a certain subject at a certain skill level. That subject can be small or large. The threshold is that you don't have to refer to a reference text to accurately answer within-subject questions at the skill level specified.
This matters, because when studying a topic, you always have to decide whether you've learned it well enough to progress to new subject matter. This offers a clean "yes/no" answer to that ess...
We do things so that we can talk about it later.
I was having a bad day today. Unlikely to have time this weekend for something I'd wanted to do. Crappy teaching in a class I'm taking. Ever increasing and complicating responsibilities piling up.
So what did I do? I went out and bought half a cherry pie.
Will that cherry pie make me happy? No. I knew this in advance. Consciously and unconsciously: I had the thought, and no emotion compelled me to do it.
In fact, it seemed like the least-efficacious action: spending some of my limited money, to buy a pie I don't...
Last night, I tested positive for COVID (my first time catching the disease). This morning, I did telehealth via PlushCare to get a Paxlovid prescription. At first, the doctor asked me what risk factor I had that made me think I was qualified to get Paxlovid. I told her I didn't know (a white lie) what the risk factors were, and hoped she could tell me. Over the course of our call, I brought up a mild heart arrhythmia I had when I was younger, and she noticed that, at 5'11" and 200 lbs, I'm overweight. Based on that, she prescribed me Paxlovid and ordered ...
Make sentences easier to follow with the XYZ pattern
I hate the Z of Y of X pattern. This is a sentence style presents information in the wrong order for easy visualization. XYZ is the opposite, and presents information in the easiest way to track.
Here are some examples:
Z of Y of X: The increased length of the axon of the mouse
XYZ: The mouse's axon length increase
Z of Y of X: The effect of boiling of extract of ginger is conversion to zingerol of gingerol
XYZ: Ginger extract, when boiled, converts gingerol to zingerol.
Z of Y of X: The rise of the price of st...
From 2000-2015, we can see that life expectancy has been growing faster the higher your income bracket (source is Vox citing JAMA).
There's an angle to be considered in which this is disturbingly inequitable. That problem is even worse when considering the international inequities in life expectancy. So let's fund malaria bednets and vaccine research to help bring down malaria deaths from 600,000/year to zero - or maybe support a gene drive to eliminate it once and for all.
At the same time, this seems like hopeful news for longevity research. If we we...
Operator fluency
When learning a new mathematical operator, such as Σ, a student typically goes through a series of steps:
I've only taken a little bit of proof-based math, and I'm sure that the way one relates with operators depends a lot on the type of clas...
Mentitation: the cost/reward proposition
Mentitation techniques are only useful if they help users with practical learning tasks. Unfortunately, learning how to crystallize certain mental activities as "techniques," and how to synthesize them into an approach to learning that really does have practical relevance, took me years of blundering around. Other people do not, and should not, have that sort of patience and trust that there's a reward at the end of all that effort.
So I need a strategy for articulating, teaching, and getting feedback on these methods...
A lot of my akrasia is solved by just "monkey see, monkey do." Physically put what I should be doing in front of my eyeballs, and pretty quickly I'll do it. Similarly, any visible distractions, or portals to distraction, will also suck me in.
But there also seems to be a component that's more like burnout. "Monkey see, monkey don't WANNA."
On one level, the cure is to just do something else and let some time pass. But that's not explicit enough for my taste. For one thing, something is happening that recovers my motivation. For another, "letting time pass" i...
Functional Agency
I think "agent" is probably analogous to a river: structurally and functionally real, but also ultimately an aggregate of smaller structures that are not themselves aligned with the agent. It's convenient for us to be able to point at a flowing body of water much longer than it is wide and call it a river. Likewise, it is convenient for us to point to an entity that senses its environment and steers events adaptively toward outcomes for legible reasons and refer to it as exhibiting agency.
In that sense, AutoGPT is already an agent - it is ...
Telling people what they want to hear
When I adopt a protocol for use in one of my own experiments, I feel reassured that it will work in proportion to how many others have used it before. Likewise, I feel reassured that I'll enjoy a certain type of food depending on how popular it is.
By contrast, I don't feel particularly reassured by the popularity of an argument that it is true (or, at least, that I'll agree with it). I tend to think book and essays become popular in proportion to whether they're telling their audience what they want to hear.
One problem ...
Hard numbers
I'm managing a project to install signage for a college campus's botanical collection.
Our contractor, who installed the sign posts in the ground, did a poor job. A lot of them pulled right out of the ground.
Nobody could agree on how many posts were installed: the groundskeeper, contractor, and two core team members, each had their own numbers from "rough counts" and "lists" and "estimates" and "what they'd heard."
The best decision I've made on this project was to do a precise inventory of exactly which sign posts are installed correctly, comple...
Paying your dues
I'm in school at the undergraduate level, taking 3 difficult classes while working part-time.
For this path to be useful at all, I have to be able to tick the boxes: get good grades, get admitted to grad school, etc. For now, my strategy is to optimize to complete these tasks as efficiently as possible (what Zvi calls "playing on easy mode"), in order to preserve as much time and energy for what I really want: living and learning.
Are there dangers in getting really good at paying your dues?
1) Maybe it distracts you/diminishes the incen...
I've been thinking about honesty over the last 10 years. It can play into at least three dynamics.
One is authority and resistance. The revelation or extraction of information, and the norms, rules, laws, and incentives surrounding this, including moral concepts, are for the primary purpose of shaping the power dynamic.
The second is practical communication. Honesty is the idea that specific people have a "right to know" certain pieces of information from you, and that you meet this obligation. There is wide latitude for "white lies," exaggeration, storytell...
Better rationality should lead you to think less, not more. It should make you better able to
while still having good outcomes. What's your rationality doing to you?
How should we weight and relate the training of our mind, body, emotions, and skills?
I think we are like other mammals. Imitation and instinct lead us to cooperate, compete, produce, and take a nap. It's a stochastic process that seems to work OK, both individually and as a species.
We made most of our initial progress in chemistry and biology through very close observation of small-scale patterns. Maybe a similar obsessiveness toward one semi-arbitrarily chosen aspect of our own individual behavior would lead to breakthroughs in self-understanding?
I'm experimenting with a format for applying LW tools to personal social-life problems. The goal is to boil down situations so that similar ones will be easy to diagnose and deal with in the future.
To do that, I want to arrive at an acronym that's memorable, defines an action plan and implies when you'd want to use it. Examples:
OSSEE Activity - "One Short Simple Easy-to-Exit Activity." A way to plan dates and hangouts that aren't exhausting or recipes for confusion.
DAHLIA - "Discuss, Assess, Help/Ask, Leave, Intervene, Accept." An action plan for how to de...
I am really disappointed in the community’s response to my Contra Contra the Social Model of Disability post.
I do not represent (or often, even acknowledge the existence or cohesion of) "the community". For myself, I didn't read it, for the following reasons:
I'd be kind of interested in a discussion of specific topics (anxiety disorders, for instance) and some nuance of how individuals do and should react to those who experience it. I'm not interested in generalities of whether ALL variances are preferences or medical issues, nor where precisely the line is (it's going to vary, duh!).
What reaction were you hoping for?
Over the last six months, I've grown more comfortable writing posts that I know will be downvoted. It's still frustrating. But I used to feel intensely anxious when it happened, and now, it's mostly just a mild annoyance.
The more you're able to publish your independent observations, without worrying about whether others will disagree, the better it is for community epistemics.
Thoughts on Apple Vision Pro:
Calling all mentitators
Are you working hard on learning STEM?
Are you interested in mentitation - visualization, memory palaces, developing a practical craft of "learning how to learn?"
What I think would take this to the next level would be developing an exchange of practices.
I sit around studying, come up with mentitation ideas, test them on myself, and post them here if they work.
But right now, I don't get feedback from other people who try them out. I also don't get suggestions from other people with things to try.
Suggestions are out there, but the devil...
Memory palace foundations
What makes the memory palace work? Four key principles:
We can extract these principles and apply them to other forms of memoriza...
Can mentitation be taught?
Mentitation[1] can be informed by the psychological literature, as well as introspection. Because people's inner experiences are diverse and not directly obervable, I expect it to be difficult to explain or teach this subject. However, mentitation has allowed me to reap large gains in my ability to understand and remember new information. Reading STEM textbooks has become vastly more interesting and has lead to better test results.
Figuring out a useful way to do mentitation has taken me years, with lots of false starts along ...
Why do patients neglect free lifestyle interventions, while overspending on unhelpful healthcare?
The theory that patients are buying "conspicuous care" must compete with the explanation that patients have limited or asymmetric information about true medical benefits. Patient tendencies to discount later medical benefits, while avoiding immediate effort and cost, can also explain some of the variation in lifestyle intervention neglect.
We could potentially separate these out by studying medical overspending by doctors on their own healthcare, particularly in...
Mistake theory on plagiarism:
How is it that capable thinkers and writers destroy their careers by publishing plagiarized paragraphs, sometimes with telling edits that show they didn't just "forget to put quotes around it?"
Here is my mistake-theory hypothesis:
I'm interested in the relationship between consumption and motivation to work. I have a theory that there are two demotivating extremes: an austerity mindset, in which the drive to work is not coupled to a drive to consume (or to be donate); and a profligacy mindset, in which the drive to consume is decoupled from a drive to work.
I don't know what to do about profligacy mindset, except to put constraints on that person's ability to obtain more credit.
But I see Putanumonit's recent post advocating self-interested generosity over Responsible Adult (tm) savin...
A celebrity is someone famous for being famous.
Is a rationalist someone famous for being rational? Someone who’s leveraged their reputation to gain privileged access to opportunity, other people’s money, credit, credence, prestige?
Are there any arenas of life where reputation-building is not a heavy determinant of success?
Idea for online dating platform:
Each person chooses a charity and an amount of money that you must donate to swipe right on them. This leads to higher-fidelity match information while also giving you a meaningful topic to kick the conversation off.
Goodhart's Epistemology
If a gears-level understanding becomes the metric of expertise, what will people do?
Use the concept of gears-level understanding to debug your own knowledge. Learn for your own sake, and allow your learning to naturally attract the credibility
...ChatGPT is a token-predictor, but it is often able to generate text that contains novel, valid causal and counterfactual reasoning. What it isn't able to do, at least not yet, is enforce an interaction with the user that guarantees that it will proceed through a desired chain of causal or counterfactual reasoning.
Many humans are inferior to ChatGPT at explicit causal and counterfactual reasoning. But not all of ChatGPT's failures to perform a desired reasoning task are due to inability - many are due to the fact that at baseline, its goal is to successfull...
Models do not need to be exactly true in order to produce highly precise and useful inferences. Instead, the objective is to check the model’s adequacy for some purpose. - Richard McElreath, Statistical Rethinking
Lightly edited for stylishness
Let's say I'm right, and a key barrier to changing minds is the perception that listening and carefully considering the other person's point of view amounts to an identity threat.
I would go further and claim that open-minded consideration of suggestions that rationalists ought to get more comfortable with symmetric weapons...
I disagree with Eliezer's comments on inclusive genetic fitness (~25:30) on Dwarkesh Patel's podcast - particularly his thought experiment of replacing DNA with some other substrate to make you healthier, smarter, and happier.
Eliezer claims that evolution is a process optimizing for inclusive genetic fitness, (IGF). He explains that human agents, evolved with impulses and values that correlate with but are not identical to IGF, tend to escape evolution's constraints and satisfy those impulses directly: they adopt kids, they use contraception, they fail to ...
Certain texts are characterized by precision, such as mathematical proofs, standard operating procedures, code, protocols, and laws. Their authority, power, and usefulness stem from this quality. Criticizing them for being imprecise is justified.
Other texts require readers to use their common sense to fill in the gaps. The logic from A to B to C may not always be clearly expressed, and statements that appear inconsistent on their own can make sense in context. If readers demand precision, they will not derive value from such texts and may criticize the aut...
Why I think ChatGPT struggles with novel coding tasks
The internet is full of code, which ChatGPT can riff on incredibly well.
However, the internet doesn't contain as many explicit, detailed and accurate records of the thought process of the programmers who wrote it. ChatGPT isn't as able to "riff on" the human thought process directly.
When I engineer prompts to help ChatGPT imitate my coding thought process, it does better. But it's difficult to get it to put it all together fluently. When I code, I'm breaking tasks down, summarizing, chunking, simulating ...
Learning a new STEM subject is unlike learning a new language. When you learn a new language, you learn new words for familiar concepts. When you learn a new STEM subject, you learn new words for unfamiliar concepts.
I frequently find that a big part of the learning curve is trying to “reason from the jargon.” You haven’t yet tied a word firmly enough to the underlying concept that there’s an instant correspondence, and it’s easy to completely lose track of the concept.
One thing that can help is to focus early on building up a strong sense of the fundamenta...
Upvotes more informative than downvotes
If you upvote me, then I learn that you like or agree with the specific ideas I've articulated in my writing. If I write "blue is the best color," and you agreevote, then I learn you also agree that the best color is blue.
But if you disagree, I only learn that you think blue is not the best color. Maybe you think red, orange, green or black is the best color. Maybe you don't think there is a best color. Maybe you think blue is only the second-best color, or maybe you think it's the worst color.
Hunger makes me stop working, but figuring out food feels like work. The reason hunger eventually makes me eat is it makes me less choosy and health-conscious, and blocks other activities besides eating.
More efficient food motivation would probably involve enjoying the process of figuring out what to eat, and anticipated enjoyment of the meal itself. Dieting successfully seems to demand more tolerance for mild hunger, making it easier to choose healthy options than unhealthy options, and avoiding extreme hunger.
If your hunger levels follow a normal distrib...
Old Me: Write more in order to be unambiguous, nuanced, and thorough.
Future Me: Write for the highest marginal value per word.
Mental architecture
Let's put it another way: the memory palace is a powerful way to build a memory of ideas, and you can build the memory palace out of the ideas directly.
My memory palace for the 20 amino acids is just a protein built from all 20 in a certain order.
My memory palace for introductory mathematical series has a few boring-looking 2D "paths" and "platforms", sure, but it's mainly just the equations and a few key words in a specific location in space, so that I can walk by and view them. They're dynamic, though. For example, I imagine a pillar o...
Mentitation[1] means releasing control in order to gain control
As I've practiced my ability to construct mental imagery in my own head, I've learned that the harder I try to control that image, the more unstable it becomes.
For example, let's say I want to visualize a white triangle.
I close my eyes, and "stare off" into the black void behind my eyelids, with the idea of visualizing a white triangle floating around in my conscious mind.
Vaguely, I can see something geometric, maybe triangular, sort of rotating and shadowy and shifty, coming into focus.
No...
I was watching Michael Pollan talk with Joe Rogan about his relationship with caffeine. Pollan brought up the claim that, prior to Prohibition, people were "drunk all the time...", "even kids," because beer and cider "was safer than water."
I myself had uncritically absorbed and repeated this claim, but it occurred to me listening to Pollan that this ought to imply that medieval Muslims had high cholera rates. When I tried Googling this, I came across a couple of Reddit threads (1, 2) that seem sensible, but are unsourced, saying that the "water wasn't safe...
a book on henry 8th said that his future inlaws were encouraged to feed his future wife (then a child) alcohol because she'd need to drink a lot of it in England for safety reasons. Another book said England had a higher disease load because the relative protection of being an island let its cities grow larger (it was talking about industrialized England but the reasoning should have held earlier). It seems plausible this was a thing in England in particular, and our English-language sources conflated it with the whole world or at least all of Europe.
I am super curious to hear the disease rate of pre-mongol-destruction Baghdad.
Alcohol concentrations below 50% have sharply diminished disinfecting utility, and wine and beer have alcohol concentrations in the neighborhood of 5%. However, the water in wine comes from grapes, while the water in beer may have been boiled prior to brewing. If the beer or wine was a commercial product, the brewer might have taken extra care in sourcing ingredients in order to protect their reputation.
Beer and fungal contamination is a problem for the beer industry. Many fungi are adapted to the presence of small amounts of alcohol (indeed, that's why fermentation works at all), and these beverages are full of sugars that bacteria and fungi can metabolize for their growth.
People might have noticed that certain water sources could make you sick, but if so, they could also have noticed which sources were safe to drink. On the other hand, consider also that people continued to use and get cholera from the Broad Street Pump. If John Snow's efforts were what was required to identify such a contaminated water source with the benefit of germ theory, then it would be surprising if people would have been very successful in identifying delayed sickness from a contaminated water source unle...
Simulated weight gain experiment, day 3
I'm up to 15 pounds of extra weight today. There's a lot to juggle, and I have decided not to wear the weighted vest to school or the lab for the time being. I do a lot of my studying from home, so that still gives me plenty of time in the vest.
I have to take off the vest when I drive, as the weights on the back are very uncomfortable to lean on. However, I can wear it sitting at my desk, since I have a habit of sitting up ramrod-straight in my chair due to decades of piano practice sitting upright on the piano bench....
Problem Memorization
Problem Memorization is a mentitation[1] technique I use often.
If you are studying for an exam, you can memorize problems from your homework, and then practice working through the key solution steps in your head, away from pencil and paper.
Since calculation is too cognitively burdensome in most cases, and is usually not the most important bottleneck for learning, you can focus instead on identifying the key conceptual steps.
The point of Problem Memorization is to create a structure in your mind (in this case, the memorized problem)...
Here's some of what I'm doing in my head as I read textbooks:
Psychology has a complex relationship with introspection. To advance the science of psychology via the study of introspection, you need a way to trigger, measure, and control it. You always face the problem that paying attention to your own mental processes tends to alter them.
Building mechanistic tools for learning and knowledge production faces a similar difficulty. Even the latest brain/computer interfaces mostly reinterpret a brain signal as a form of computer input. The user's interaction with the computer modifies their brain state.
However, the compu...
Apeing The Experts
Humans are apes. We imitate. We do this to learn, to try and become the person we want to be.
Watching an expert work, they often seem fast, confident, and even casual in their approach. They break rules. They joke with the people around them. They move faster, yet with more precision, than you can do even with total focus.
This can lead to big problems when we're trying to learn from them. Because we're not experts in their subject, we'll mostly notice the most obvious, impressive aspects of the expert's demeanor. For many people, that wil...
My goal here is to start learning about the biotech industry by considering individual stock purchases.
BTK inhibitors are a drug that targets B cell malignancies. Most are covalent, meaning that they permanently disable the receptor they target, which is not ideal for a drug. Non-covalent BTK inhibitors are in clinical trials. Some have been prematurely terminated. Others are proceeding. In addition, there are covalent reversible inhibitors, but I don't know anything about that class of drugs.
One is CG-806, from Aptose, a $200M company. This is one of its ...
Status and Being a "Rationalist"
The reticence many LWers feel about the term "rationalist" stems from a paradox: it feels like a status-grab and low-status at the same time.
It's a status grab because LW can feel like an exclusive club. Plenty of people say they feel like they can hardly understand the writings here, and that they'd feel intimidated to comment, let alone post. Since I think most of us who participate in this community wish that everybody would be more into being rational and that it wasn't an exclusive club, this feels unfortunate.
It's low ...
I use LessWrong as a place not just to post rambly thoughts and finished essays, but something in between.
The in between parts are draft essays that I want feedback on, and want to get out while the ideas are still hot. Partly it's so that I can have a record of my thoughts that I can build off of and update in the future. Partly it's that the act of getting my words together in a way I can communicate to others is an important part of shaping my own views.
I wish there was a way to tag frontpage posts with something like "Draft - seeking feedback" vs. "Fin...
Yeah, I've been thinking about this for a while. Like, maybe we just want to have a "Draft - seeking feedback" tag, or something. Not sure.
Eliezer's post on motivated stopping contains this line:
Who can argue against gathering more evidence? I can. Evidence is often costly, and worse, slow, and there is certainly nothing virtuous about refusing to integrate the evidence you already have. You can always change your mind later."
This is often not true, though, for example with regard to whether or not it's ethical to have kids. So how to make these sorts of decisions?
I don't have a good answer for this. I sort of think that there are certain superhuman forces or drives that "win out." The drive ...
Reading and re-reading
The first time you read a textbook on a new subject, you're taking in new knowledge. Re-read the same passage a day later, a week later, or a year later, and it will qualitatively feel different.
You'll recognize the sentences. In some parts, you'll skim, because you know it already. Or because it looks familiar -- are you sure which?
And in that skimming mode, you might zoom into and through a patch that you didn't know so well.
When you're reading a textbook for the first time, in short, there are more inherent safeguards to keep you f...
I just started using GreaterWrong.com, in anti-kibitzer mode. Highly recommended. I notice how unfortunately I've glommed on to karma and status more than is comfortable. It's a big relief to open the front page and just see... ideas!
There's a pretty simple reason why the stock market didn't tank long-term due to COVID. Even if we get 3 million total deaths due to the pandemic, that's "only" around a 5% increase in total deaths over the year where deaths are at their peak. 80% of those deaths are among people of retirement age. Though their spending is around 34% of all spending, the money of those who die from COVID will flow to others who will also spend it.
My explanation for the original stock market crash back in Feb/March is that investors were nervous that we'd impose truly strict lockdown measures, or perhaps that the pandemic would more seriously harm working-age people than it does. That would have had a major effect on the economy.
Striving
At any given time, many doors stand wide open before you. They are slowly closing, but you have plenty of time to walk through them. The paths are winding.
Striving is when you recognize that there are also many shortcuts. Their paths are straighter, but the doors leading to them are almost shut. You have to run to duck through.
And if you do that, you'll see that through the almost-shut doors, there are yet straighter roads even further ahead, but you can only make it through if you make a mad dash. There's no guarantee.
To run is exhilarating at fir...
The direction I'd like to see LW moving in as a community
Criticism has a perverse characteristic:
Ideas that survive into adulthood will therefore tend to be championed by thinkers who are less receptive to criticism.
Maybe we need some sort of "baby criticism" for new ideas. A "devel...
Cost/benefit anxiety is not fear of the unknown
When I consider doing a difficult/time-consuming/expensive but potentially rewarding activity, it often provokes anxiety. Examples include running ten miles, doing an extensive blog post series on regenerative medicine, and going to grad school. Let's call this cost/benefit anxiety.
Other times, the immediate actions I'm considering are equally "costly," but one provokes more fear than the others even though it is not obviously stupid. One example is whether or not to start blogging under my real name. Call it ...
A machine learning algorithm is advertising courses in machine learning to me. Maybe the AI is already out of the box.
An end run around slow government
The US recommended daily amount (RDA) of vitamin D is about 600 IUs per day. This was established in 2011, and hasn't been updated since. The Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine at the National Academy of Sciences sets US RDAs.
According to a 2017 paper, "The Big Vitamin D Mistake," the right level is actually around 8,000 IUs/day, and the erroneously low level is due to a statistical mistake. I haven't been able to find out yet whether there is any transparency about when the RDA will be reconsidered.
But 3...
Explanation for why displeasure would be associated with meaningfulness, even though in fact meaning comes from pleasure:
Meaningful experiences involve great pleasure. They also may come with small pains. Part of how you quantify your great pleasure is the size of the small pain that it superceded.
Pain does not cause meaning. It is a test for the magnitude of the pleasure. But only pleasure is a causal factor for meaning.
Do you treat “the dark arts” as a set of generally forbidden behaviors, or as problematic only in specific contexts?
As a war of good and evil or as the result of trade-offs between epistemic rationality and other values?
Do you shun deception and manipulation, seek to identify contexts where they’re ok or wrong, or embrace them as a key to succeeding in life?
Do you find the dark arts dull, interesting, or key to understanding the world, regardless of whether or not you employ them?
Asymmetric weapons may be the only source of edge for the truth itself. But s...
How to reach simplicity?
You can start with complexity, then simplify. But that's style.
What would it mean to think simple?
I don't know. But maybe...
Question re: "Why Most Published Research Findings are False":
Let R be the ratio of the number of “true relationships” to “no relationships” among those tested in the field... The pre-study probability of a relationship being true is R/(R + 1).
What is the difference between "the ratio of the number of 'true relationships' to 'no relationships' among those tested in the field" and "the pre-study probability of a relationship being true"?
The innumeracy and linguistic imprecision in medical papers is irritating.
In "The future of epigenetic therapy in solid tumours—lessons from the past," we have the sentence:
One exciting development is the recognition that virtually all tumours harbour mutations in genes that encode proteins that control the epigenome.9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
11 citations! Wow!
What is the motte version of this sentence? Does it mean:
I use ChatGPT as a starting point to investigate hypotheses to test at my biomedical engineering job on a daily basis. I am able to independently approach the level of understanding of specific problems of an experienced chemist with many years of experience on certain problems, although his familiarity with our chemical systems and education makes him faster to arrive at the same result. This is a lived example of the phenomenon in which AI improves the performance of the lower-tier performers more than the higher-tier performers (I am a recent MS grad, h...
I'm exploring the idea of agency roughly as a certain tendency to adaptively force a range of prioritized outcomes.
In this conception, having a "terminal goal" is just a special and unusual subcase in which there is one single specific outcome at which the agent is driving with full intensity. To maintain that state, one of its subgoals must be to maintain the integrity of its current goal-prioritization state.
More commonly, however, even an AI with superhuman capabilities will prioritize multiple outcomes, with varied degress of intensity, exhibiting only...
I'm going to be exiting the online rationalist community for an indefinite period of time. If anyone wants to keep in touch, feel free to PM me and I will provide you with personal contact info (I'll check my messages occasionally). Best wishes.
Memorization timescales and feedback loops
Often, people focus on memorizing information on timescales of hours, days, or months. I think this is hard, and not necessarily useful - it smacks of premature optimization. The feedback loops are long, and the decision to force yourself through a process of memorizing THIS set of facts instead of THAT set of facts is always one you may wish to revise later. At the very least, you'd want to frequently prune your Anki cards to eliminate facts that no longer seem as pressing.
By contrast, I think it's very useful and...
Read by rewording as you go
Many people find their attention drifts when they read. They get to the end of a sentence/paragraph/page and find they've lost the plot, or don't see the connection between the words and sentences, sentences and paragraphs, paragraphs and pages.
One way to try and correct this is to hyperfocus on making sure you read the words accurately, without letting your mind drift. But I have found this is a pretty inefficient strategy.
Instead, I do better by "rewording as I go." By this, I mean a sort of skimming where I take in the sentenc...
The Handbook of the Biology of Aging has serious flaws if its purpose is to communciate with non-experts
What makes an effective sentence for transmitting academic information to a newcomer to the field?
Let's ignore the issue of trustworthiness, as well as the other purposes academic writing can serve.
With these three criteria in mind, how does the first sentence of Ch. 3 of the Handbook of the Biology of Aging far...
Requesting beta readers for "Unit Test Everything."
I have a new post on how to be more reliable and conscientious in executing real-world tasks. It's been through several rounds of editing. I feel like it would now benefit from some fresh eyes. If you'd be willing to give it a read and provide feedback, please let me know!
Mentitation Technique: Organize, Cut and Elaborate
Organize, Cut and Elaborate is a technique for tackling information overload.
People cope with overload by straining to fit as much as they can into their working memory. Some even do exercises try try and expand their memory.
With Organize, Cut and Elaborate, we instead try to link small amounts of new information with what we already have stored in long-term memory. After you've scanned through this post, I invite you to try it out on the post itself.
I don't have an exact algorithm, but a general framework ...
Toward an epistemic stance for mentitation
Brett Devereaux writes insightfully about epistemologies.
...On the other end, some things are impractical to test empirically; empirical tests rely on repeated experiments under changing conditions (the scientific method) to determine how something behaves. This is well enough when you are studying something relatively simple, but a difficult task when you are studying, say, a society.
In our actual lives and also in the course of nearly every kind of scholarship (humanities, social sciences or STEM) we rely on a range
Mentitation
"Mental training" is not the ideal concept handle for the activity I have in mind. "Metacognition" is relevant, but is more an aspect or basis of mental training, in the same way that strategy and tactics are an aspect and basis for a sports team's play.
We have numerous rationality "drills," such as forecasting practice, babble and prune prompts, making bets. To my understanding, many were pioneered by CFAR.
The practice of rationality involves studying object-level topics, drawing conclusions, and executing on decisions. In the sports metaphore,...
Explaining the Memory Palace
Memory palaces are an ancient technique, rumored to be a powerful way to improve memory. Yet what a strange concept. It's hard enough to remember the facts you want to recall. Why would placing the added cognitive burden of constructing and remembering an memory palace assist with memory?
I think the memory palace is an attempt to deal with the familiar sensation of knowing you know a fact, but not being able to summon that fact to your conscious mind. Later in the day, by chance, it pops into your mind spontaneously. Just as you...
How do we learn from experience without a control group?
I can discern cause and effect when there's a clear mechanism and immediate feedback. Brushing my teeth makes them feel clean. Eating pizza makes me full. Yet I've met plenty of people who claim to have had direct, powerful experiences confirming that forms of pseudoscience are real - astrology, crystal healing, reiki, etc.
While I don't believe in astrology or crystal healing based on their reports, I think that in at least some cases, they've experienced something similar to what it's like to e...
"The subjective component in causal information does not necessarily diminish over time, even as the amount of data increases. Two people who believe in two different causal diagrams can analyze the same data and may never come to the same conclusion, regardless of how "big" the data are. This is a terrifying prospect for advocates of scientific objectivity, which explains their refusal to accept the inevitability of relying on subjective causal information." - Judea Pearl, The Book of Why
There are lots of reasons to measure a person's ability level in some skill. One such reason is to test your understanding in the early stages of learning a new set of concepts.
You want a system that's:
Flashcards/reciting concepts from notes is a nice example. It's fast and intuitive, tells you what concepts you're still struggling with. Knowing that, you can look over the materia...
How much of rationality is specialized?
Cultural transmission of knowledge is the secret of our success.
Children comprise a culture. They transmit knowledge of how to insult and play games, complain and get attention. They transmit knowledge on how to survive and thrive with a child's priorities, in a child's body, in a culture that tries to guarantee that the material needs of children are taken care of.
General national cultures teach people very broad, basic skills. Literacy, the ability to read and discuss the newspaper. How to purchase consumer goods. H...
What is the #1 change that LW has instilled in me?
Participating in LW has instilled the virtue of goal orientation. All other virtues, including epistemic rationality, flow from that.
Learning how to set goals, investigate them, take action to achieve them, pivot when necessary, and alter your original goals in light of new evidence is a dynamic practice, one that I expect to retain for a long time.
Many memes circulate around this broad theme. But only here have I been able to develop an explicit, robust, ever-expanding framework for making and thinking abo...
Why don't more people seek out and use talent scouts/headhunters? If the ghost jobs phenomenon is substantial, that's a perfect use case. Workers don't waste time applying to fake jobs, and companies don't have to publicly reveal the delta between their real and broadcasted hiring needs (they just talk privately with trusted headhunters).
Are there not enough headhunters? Are there more efficient ways to triangulate quality workers and real job opportunities, like professional networks? Are ghost jobs not that big of a deal? Do people in fact use headhunters quite a lot?
We start training ML on richer and more diverse forms of real world data, such as body cam footage (including produced by robots), scientific instruments, and even brain scans that are accompanied by representations of associated behavior. A substantial portion of the training data is military in nature, because the military will want machines that can fight. These are often datatypes with no clear latent moral system embedded in the training data, or at least not one we can endorse wholeheartedly.
The context window grows longer and longer, which in practi...
Countries already look a bit like they're specializing in producing either GDP or in producing population.
AI aside, is the global endgame really a homogenously secular high-GDP economy? Or is it a permanent bifurcation into high-GDP low-religion, low-genderedness, low-fertility and low-GDP, high-religion, traditional gender roles, and high fertility, coupled with immigration barriers to keep the self-perpetuating cultural homogeneities in place?
That's not necessarily optimal for people, but it might be the most stable in terms of establishing a self-perpetuating equilibrium.
Is this just an extension of partisan sorting on a global scale?
Does anybody know of research studying whether prediction markets/forecasting averages become more accurate if you exclude non-superforecaster predictions vs. including them?
To be specific, say you run a forecasting tournament with 1,000 participants. After determining the Brier score of each participant, you compute what the Brier score would be for the average of the best 20 participants vs. the average of all 1000 participants. Which average would typically have a lower Brier score - the average of the best 20 participants' predictions, or the average of all 1000 participants' predictions?
P(Fraud|Massive growth & Fast growth & Consistent growth & Credence Good)
Bernie Madoff's ponzi scheme hedge fund had almost $70 billion (?) in AUM at its peak. Not adjusting for interest, if it existed today, it would be about the 6th biggest hedge fund, roughly tied with Two Sigma Investments.
Madoff's scheme lasted 17 years, and if it had existed today, it would be the youngest hedge fund on the list by 5 years. Most top-10 hedge funds were founded in the 70s or 80s and are therefore 30-45 years old.
Theranos was a $10 billion company at ...
When I'm reasoning about a practical chemistry problem at work, I'm usually thinking in terms of qualitative mechanisms:
Changing a person's strongly-held belief is difficult. They may not be willing to spend the time it would take to address all your arguments. They might not be capable of understanding them. And they may be motivated to misunderstand.
An alternative is to give them short, fun intros to the atomic ideas and evidence for your argument, without revealing your larger aim. Let them gradually come to the right conclusion on their own.
The art of this approach is motivating why the atomic ideas are interesting, without using the point you're trying to make as the m...
Conservatism says "don't be first, keep everything the same." This is a fine, self-consistent stance.
A responsible moderate conservative says "Someone has to be first, and someone will be last. I personally want to be somewhere in the middle, but I applaud the early adopters for helping me understand new things." This is also a fine, self-consistent stance.
Irresponsible moderate conservatism endorses "don't be first, and don't be last," as a general rule, and denigrates those who don't obey it. It has no answers for who ought to be first and last. But for ...
I would pay about $5/month for a version of Twitter that was read-only. I want a window, not a door.
Steelman as the inverse of the Intellectual Turing Test
The Intellectual Turing Test (ITT) checks if you can speak in such a way that you convincingly come across as if you believe what you're saying. Can you successfully pose as a libertarian? As a communist?
Lately, the ITT has been getting boosted over another idea, "steelmanning," which I think of as making "arguing against the strongest version of an idea," the opposite of weakmanning or strawmanning.
I don't think one is better than the other. I think that they're tools for different purposes.
If I'm doi...
My 3-line FizzBuzz in python:
for i in range(1, 101):
x = ["", "Fizz"][i%3==0] + ["", "Buzz"][i%5==0]
print([x, i][len(x)==0])
Making Beliefs Identity-Compatible
When we view our minds through the lens of large language models (LLMs), with their static memory prompts and mutable context window, we find a fascinating model of belief and identity formation. Picture this in the context of a debate between an atheist and a creationist: how can this LLM-like model explain the hurdles in finding common ground?
Firstly, we must acknowledge our belief systems, much like an LLM, are slow to change. Guided by a lifetime of self-reinforcing experiences, our convictions, whether atheistic or cr...
The best way I've come up with to explain how to use ChatGPT effectively is to think of it as a horde of undergraduate researchers you can employ for pennies. They're somewhat unreliable, but you can work them to the bone for next to nothing, and if you can give them a task that's within their reach, or cross-check their answers against each other, you can do a lot with that resource.
A workflow for forecasting
Very interesting that after decades of GUI-ification, we're going back to text-based workflows, with LLMs at the nexus. I anticipate we'll see GUIs encapsulating many of these workflows but I'm honestly not sure - maybe text-based descriptions of desired behaviors are the future.
I have learned to expect to receive mostly downvotes when I write about AI.
I can easily imagine general reasons why people might downvote me. They might disagree, dislike, or fear negative consequences of my posts. They might be bored of the topic and want only high-caliber expert writings. It might be that the concentrated AI expertise on LessWrong collectively can let their hair down on other topics, but demand professionalism on the specific topic of their expertise.
Because I don't know who's downvoting my AI posts, or their specific reasons why, ...
Fixing the ticker-tape problem, or the disconnect between how we write and how we read
Between the tedious wash steps of the experiment I'm running, I've been tinkering with Python. The result is aiRead.
aiRead integrates the ideas about active reading I've accumulated over the last four years. Although its ChatGPT integration is its most powerful feature, this comment is about an insight I've gleaned by using its ticker-tape display feature.
Mostly, I sit down at my desk to read articles on my computer screen. I click a link, and what appears is a column of ...
A proposal to better adapt nonfiction writing to human memory and attention
Let's explain why it's hard to learn from typical nonfiction writing, so that we can figure out how to potentially solve the problem.
The succession of new OpenAI products has proven to me that I'm bad at articulating benchmarks for AI success.
For example, ChatGPT can generate working Python code for a game of mancala, except that it ignores captures and second turns completely, and the UI is terrible. But I'm pretty good at Python, and it would be easier for me to debug and improve ChatGPT's code than to write a complete mancala game.
But I wouldn't have thought to set out "writing code that can be fixed faster than a working program can be written from scratch" as a benchmark. In hindsi...
Sometimes, our bad gut feelings lead us astray. Political actors use this to advantage - programming people with bad gut feelings and exploiting the political division to advantage. Rationality encourages us in these cases to set aside the bad-gut-feeling-generator ("rhetoric"), subject the bad gut feeling to higher scrutiny, and then decide how we ought to feel. There's so much rheotric and so much negativity bias and bad gut feeling, that we might even start to adopt a rule of thumb that "most bad gut feelings are wrong."
Do this to yourself too long, tho...
Stress-promoting genes?
How can The Selfish Gene help us do better evolutionary thinking? Dawkins presents two universal qualities of a "good gene:"
One implication is that genes do best by not only making their vehicle organisms able to survive and reproduce in the niche for which the gene adapts them. The gene, or other genes with which it coordinates, ought to make that organism prefer th...
How I make system II thinking more reliable
When Kahneman and Tversky described System I and System II thinking, they used it to categorize and explain modes of thought. Over the years, I've learned that it's not always easy to determine which one I'm doing. In particular, I often find myself believing that I'm making a consciously calculated answer, when in fact I am inappropriately relying on haphazard intuition.
I don't know exactly how to solve this problem. The strategy that seems best is to create a "System II Safeguard" that ensures I am employi...
A distillation might need to fill in background knowledge
A good summary/distillation has two functions. First, it extracts the most important information. Second, it helps the reader understand that information more efficiently.
Most people think a distillation cuts a source text down to a smaller size. It can do more than that. Sometimes, the most important information in a text requires background knowledge. If the reader doesn't have that background knowledge, a distillation designed for that reader must start by communicating it to them, even if the ori...
Study Chatter
Lately, I've hit on another new technique for learning and scholarship. I call it "study chatter." It's simple to describe, but worth explaining why it works, and how it compares to other techniques.
Study chatter means that you write, think, or talk to yourself, in an open-ended way, about the topic you're trying to study. Whatever comes to mind is fine. Here's how this might work in practice (just to give you a flavor):
...In Quantitative Cell Biology, we're learning a lot about ways to analyze proteins and cells - lots of methods. This is import
Distillation sketch - rapid control of gene expression
A distillation sketch is like an artistic sketch or musical jam session. Which version below do you prefer, and why?
My new version:
...When you’re starving or exercising intensely, your body needs to make more energy, but there's not much glucose or glycogen left to do it with. So it sends a signal to your liver cells to start breaking down other molecules, like amino acids and small molecules, and turning them into glucose, which can in turn be broken down for energy. Cortisol is the hormone that carries t
Studying for retention is a virtuous cycle
If you know how to visualize and build memory palaces, it makes it much easier to understand new concepts, practice them, and therefore to retain them for the long term.
Once you gain this ability, it can transform your relationship with learning.
Before, I felt akrasia. I did my work - it was just a grind. Learning shouldn't feel that way.
Now, I feel voracious. I learn, and the knowledge sticks. My process improves at the same time. My time suddenly has become precious to myself. The books aren't full of tedium that...
Memory palace inputs
Once you have the mental skills to build memory palaces, you become bottlenecked by how well-organized your external resources are. Often, you'll have to create your own form of external organization.
I've found that trying to create a memory palace based on disorganized external information is asking for trouble. You'll be trying to manage two cognitive burdens: deciding how to organize the material, and remembering the material itself.
This is unnecessary. Start by organizing the material you want to memorize on the page, where you don't have to remember it. Once that's accomplished, then try to organize it in your head by building it into a memory palace.
Memory palace maintenance
A problem with the "memory palace" concept is that it implies that the palace, once constructed, will be stable. If you've built a building well enough to take a walk through it, it will typically stand up on its own for a long time.
By contrast, a "memory palace" crumbles without frequent maintenance, at least for the first few days/weeks/months - I don't really know how long it might take to hypothetically have the memory palace be self-supporting. I suspect that depends on how often your work or further schooling makes use of the...
Back when I really didn't know what I was doing, I tried to memorize a textbook verbatim. Fortunately, that didn't last long. Even with good technique, memorization is effortful and time-consuming. To get the most benefit, we need to do it efficiently.
What does that mean?
Efficient memorization is building the minimal memory that lets you construct the result.
Let's expand on that with an example.
Taylor's Inequality is a key theorem related to Taylor Series, a powerful tool used widely across science and engineering. Taylor's Inequality gives us a way of sho...
Mental practice for formal charge
I'm reviewing the chemistry concept of formal charge. There are three simple rules:
Lewis structures are unnecessary to practice these rules. We can picture pairs of graphs. Red vertices represent electronegative atoms. The labels representing formal charge.
I decide which has a more favorable formal charge distribution, according to the rules.
This game took me longer to describe than to invent and...
Efficiency is achieving complex ends through simpler means.
The genius is replaced by the professional. The professional is replaced by the laborer. The laborer is replaced by the animal, or by the robot.
The animal is replaced by the cell. The cell is replaced by the protein. The protein is replaced by the small molecule. The small molecule is replaced by the element.
The robot is replaced by the machine. The machine is replaced by the tool. The tool is replaced by a redesigned part. The part is obviated by a redesigned system.
The advantages of mental practice
Deliberate practice is usually legible practice, meaning that it can be observed, socially coordinated, and evaluated. Legibile forms of deliberate practice are easy to do in a classroom, sports team, or computer program. They are also easy to enforce and incentivize. Almost every form of deliberate practice you have ever been required to do has been some form of legible practice.
Mental practice is illegible. Almost certainly, you have rarely, if ever, been asked to do it, and with even more confidence, I can say that you h...
Why the chemistry trick works
Yesterday, I wrote about my chemistry trick. To learn the structure of proline, we don't try to "flash" the whole image into our head.
Instead, we imagine ourselves standing on a single atom. We imagine taking a "walk" around proline. We might try to visualize the whole molecule as it would appear from our position. Or we might just see the next atom in front of us as we walk.
Why does this work? It exploits the cut principle. We don't try to recall every bit of information all at once. Instead, we recall only a small piec...
The relationship between metabolism, physical fatigue, and the energy cost of physical motion is relatively well-understood.
What is a Mind Mirror?
The brain does a lot of unconscious processing, but most people feel that they can monitor and control their own brain's behavior, at least to some extent. We are depending on their ability to do this anytime we expect a student to do any amount of self-directed learning.
As in any other domain, a common language to talk about how we monitor and control our own brains for the tasks of learning would be extremely helpful.
"Mind mirroring" is my tentative term for provoking the brain to reliably and automatically create a certain mental s...
Over the last several years of studying how to study, one of the central focuses has been on managing the cognitive burden. Three main approaches recur again and again:
I've noticed significant progress in my abilities in each of these individual areas, but synthesizing them is even more important.
When I lean on on...
Fascinatingly, "does getting a second opinion..." autocompletes on Google to "offend doctors," not "lead to better health outcomes."
Score one for The Elephant In The Brain?
What happens when innovation in treatment for a disease stagnates?
Huntington's has only two FDA-approved drugs to treat symptoms of chorea: tetrabenazine (old) and deutetrabenazine (approved in 2017).
However, in the USA, physicians can prescribe whatever they feel is best for their patient off-label (and about 1 in 5 prescriptions are off-label). Doctors prescribe Risperdal (risperidone), Haldol (haloperidol) and Thorazine (chlorpromazine) off-label to treat HD chorea symptoms.
So off-label prescribing is a major way that the medical system can innovate, by adapting old drugs to new purposes.
A reframe of biomedical industry analysis:
"How is US healthcare going to change between now and the year 202_?"
This requires an understanding of the size of various diseases, the scope of treatment options currently available, natural fluctuations from year to year, and new medicines coming down the pipeline.
It would be interesting to study treatment options for a stagnant disease, one that hasn't had any new drugs come out in at least a few years.
A biomedical engineer might go a step further, and ask:
"How could healthcare change between now an the year 20__?"
Accurate arguments still need to be delightful and convincing
You can't just post two paragraphs of actionable advice and expect people to read it. You can't just explain things in intuitive language and expect to convert the skeptical. Barring exceptional circumstances, you can't get straight to the point. System 2 takes time to initialize.
Blogging is a special format. You're sort of writing for a self-selected niche. But you're also competing for people's attention when they're randomly browsing. Having a strong brand as a writer (Scott, Eliezer, Zvi, and...
Pascal's Mugging has always confused me. It relies on the assumption that the likelihood of the payoff diminishes more slowly than the size of the payoff.
I can imagine regions of payoff vs. likelihood graphs where that's true. But in general, I expect that likelihood diminishes with greater acceleration than the acceleration of payoff. So eventually, likelihood diminishes faster than payoff increases, even if that was not the case at first. This lets me avoid Pascal's Muggings.
I can imagine an intelligence that somehow gets confused and misses this point. ...
Learning feedback loops
Putting a serious effort into learning Italian in the classroom can make it possible to immerse yourself in the language when you visit Italy. Studying hard for an engineering interview lets you get a job where you'll be able to practice a set of related skills all the time. Reading a scientist's research papers makes you seem like an attractive candidate to work in their lab, where you'll gain a much more profound knowledge of the field.
This isn't just signaling. It's much more about acquiring the minimal competency to participate i...
Business idea: Celebrity witness protection.
There are probably lots of wealthy celebrities who’d like to lose their fame and resume a normal life. Imagine a service akin to witness protection that helped them disappear and start a new life.
I imagine this would lead to journalists and extortionists trying to track them down, so maybe it’s not tractable in the end.
Just a notepad/stub as I review writings on filtered evidence:
One possible solution to the problem of the motivated arguer is to incentivize in favor of all arguments being motivated. Eliezer covered this in "What Evidence Filtered Evidence?" So a rationalist response to the problem of filtered evidence might be to set up a similar structure and protect it against tampering.
What would a rationalist do if they suspected a motivated arguer was calling a decision to their attention and trying to persuade them of option A? It might be to become a motivated arg...
Aspects of learning that are important but I haven't formally synthesized yet:
Cognitive vs. behaviorist approaches to the study of learning
I. Cognitivist approaches
To study how people study on an internal, mental level, you could do a careful examination of what they report doing with their minds as they scan a sentence of a text that they're trying to learn from.
For example, what does your mind do if you read the following sentence, with the intent to understand and remember the information it contains?
"The cerebral cortex is the site where the highest level of neural processing takes place, including language, memory and cognitive...
Practice sessions in spaced-repetition literature
Spaced repetition helps, but how do spaced-repetition researchers have their subjects practice within a single practice session? I'd expect optimized practice to involve not only spacing and number of repetitions, but also an optimal way of practicing within sessions.
So far, I've seen a couple formats:
Are democracies doomed to endless intense, intractable partisanship?
Model for Yes: In a democracy, there will be a set of issues. Each has a certain level of popular or special-interest support, as well as constitutionality.
Issues with the highest levels of popular support and constitutionality will get enacted first, if they weren't already in place before the democracy was founded.
Over time, issues with more marginal support and constitutionality will get enacted, until all that's left are the most marginal issues. The issues that remain live issues will...
I've noticed that when I write posts or questions, much of the text functions as "planning" for what's to come. Often, I'm organizing my thoughts as I write, so that's natural.
But does that "planning" text help organize the post and make it easier to read? Or is it flab that I should cut?
Thinking, Too Fast and Too Slow
I've noticed that there are two important failure modes in studying for my classes.
Too Fast: This is when learning breaks down because I'm trying to read, write, compute, or connect concepts too quickly.
Too Slow: This is when learning fails, or just proceeds too inefficiently, because I'm being too cautious, obsessing over words, trying to remember too many details, etc.
One hypothesis is that there's some speed of activity that's ideal for any given person, depending on the subject matter and their current level of comfort wi...
Different approaches to learning seem to be called for in fields with varying levels of paradigm consensus. The best approach to learning undergraduate math/CS/physics/chemistry seems different from the best one to take for learning biology, which again differs from the best approach to studying the economics/humanities*.
High-consensus disciplines have a natural sequential order, and the empirical data is very closely tied to an a priori predictive structure. You develop understanding by doing calculations and making theory-based arguments, along with empi...
What rationalists are trying to do is something like this:
This looks exactly like virtue ethics.
Now, we have heard that the meek shall inherit the earth. So we eschew the dark arts; embrace the virtues of accuracy, precision, and charity...
You can justify all sorts of spiritual ideas by a few arguments:
A checklist for the strength of ideas:
Think "D-SHARP"
Worthwhile research should help the idea move either forward or backward through this sequence.
Why isn’t California investing heavily in desalination? Has anybody thought through the economics? Is this a live idea?
My modified Pomodoro has been working for me. I set a timer for 5 minutes and start working. Every 5 minutes, I just reset the timer and continue.
For some reason it gets my brain into "racking up points" mode. How many 5-minute sessions can I do without stopping or getting distracted? Aware as I am of my distractability, this has been an unquestionably powerful technique for me to expand my attention span.
All actions have an exogenous component and an endogenous component. The weights we perceive differ from action to action, context to context.
The endogenous component has causes and consequences that come down to the laws of physics.
The exogenous component has causes and consequences from its social implications. The consequences, interpretation, and even the boundaries of where the action begins and ends are up for grabs.
Failure modes in important relationships
Practice this:
Good reading habit #1: Turn absolute numbers into proportions and proportions into absolute numbers.
For example, in reading "With almost 1,000 genes discovered to be differentially expressed between low and high passage cells [in mouse insulinoma cells]," look up the number of mouse genes (25,000) and turn it into a percentage so that you can see that 1,000 genes is 4% of the mouse genome.
...Eigen's paradox is one of the most intractable puzzles in the study of the origins of life. It is thought that the error threshold concept described above limits the size of self replicating molecules to perhaps a few hundred digits, yet almost all life on earth requires much longer molecules to encode their genetic information. This problem is handled in living cells by enzymes that repair mutations, allowing the encoding molecules to reach sizes on the order of millions of base pairs. These large molecules must, of course, encode the very enzymes that re
What is the difference between playing devil's advocate and steelmanning an argument? I'm interested in any and all attempts to draw a useful distinction, even if they're only partial.
Attempts:
Empathy is inexpensive and brings surprising benefits. It takes a little bit of practice and intent. Mainly, it involves stating the obvious assumption about the other person's experience and desires. Offer things you think they'd want and that you'd be willing to give. Let them agree or correct you. This creates a good context in which high-value trades can occur, without needing an conscious, overriding, selfish goal to guide you from the start.
Chris Voss thinks empathy is key to successful negotiation.
Is there a line between negotiating and not, or only varying degrees of explicitness?
Should we be openly negotiating more often?
How do you define success, when at least one of his own examples of a “successful negotiation” is entirely giving over to the other side?
I think the point is that the relationship comes first, greed second. Negotiation for Voss is exchange of empathy, seeking information, being aware of your leverage. Those factors are operating all the time - that’s the relationship.
The d
...If I want to change minds...
... how many objections will I have to overcome?
... from how many readers?
... in what combinations?
... how much argument will they tolerate before losing interest?
... and how individually tailored will they have to be?
... how expensive will providing them with legible evidence be?
... how equipped are they to interpret it accurately?
Hot top: "sushi-grade" and "sashimi-grade" are marketing terms that mean nothing in terms of food safety. Freezing inactivates pretty much any parasites that might have been in the fish.
I'm going to leave these claims unsourced, because I think you should look it up and judge the credibility of the research for yourself.