This was interesting, but the panel dates back from 2015. Before GPT, before AlphaGo, before Alpha0 and so on. I doubt they hold the same positions now !
This is why we really need some followups to the old surveys: they're all from before the most striking developments, and approaching a decade out of date (assuming people formed opinions in the 2-3 years before the survey and are not even further out of date than that). Metaculus is great and all, but not exactly a random sampling of ML/DL/AI communities.
Yes, I thus found it especially striking that Kontsevich already thought HLAI was possible soon, apparently from pure reasoning alone. I also wouldn't be too surprised if many of them held same or similar positions now, given how resistant many are to updating from existing progress to the possibility of further progress, although one might hope that elite mathematicians would be more rational. Incidentally, something a lot like Tao's "brute force search fleshed out by human mathematicians" has happened in the last year.
Nobody will hold a position such as "I'm no expert, but isn't the way the computer played chess not really very intelligent? It's a huge combinatorial check." - well, I hope so at least !
I found this 2015 panel with Terence Tao and some other eminent mathematicians to be interesting. The panel covered various topics but got into the question of when computers will be able to do research-level mathematics. Most interestingly, Maxim Kontsevich was alone in predicting that HLAI in math was plausible in our lifetime -- but also, that developing such an AI might not be a good idea. He also mentioned a BioAnchors-style AI forecast by Kolmogorov that I had never heard of before(and cannot find a reference to -- anyone know of such a thing?) Excerpts below:
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