How four accounts have shifted the election probabilities narrative
As the US Presidential Election approaches, all eyes are on who will become the next president - Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. In early October, many analysts believed both candidates had a relatively equal chance of winning. However, a significant shift in betting markets occurred following Trump’s rally in Butler, PA on October 6, with odds heavily moving in his favor.
On Polymarket, traders began noticing a sharp increase in bets on Trump. This shift was driven by a group of relatively new accounts, which have, as of today, deposited approximately $35 million USDC into Polymarket and deployed $33 million across election-related markets, always betting on Trump / Republican outcomes. This has sparked a lot of online speculation, leading to misconceptions. Below, I aim to clarify these points.
1. Can a Group of Accounts Really Shift the Market This Much?
While Polymarket’s US Presidential Election market might be the most liquid in terms of political betting today, it isn’t as deep as it appears. For example, the bid-ask spread sits at 58,657 x 60.6 - 60.7 x 35,429. This represents a relatively tight market, but one without significant liquidity. If someone were to place a market order for 1 million Trump shares right now, the odds would move from 60.7 to 62. Since October 6, these accounts have collectively bought over 40 million Trump shares, leading to the observed shift in Trump’s odds from 50.8 to 60.7.
2. Is Trump Simply Gaining Momentum, and Did These Accounts Predict That?
Possibly. Many market participants are investigating whether these accounts are related, and if so, who might be behind them. Understanding who might be behind these accounts can provide clues as to whether they have superior knowledge and resources when it comes to the election. Some users on X have criticized attempts to identify the individuals, arguing that it is unethical or illegal. However, understanding who your counterparty is can provide a competitive advantage, a tactic frequently employed in capital markets. For example, when a large block of shares enters the market, traders often ask, "Who is selling?" to inform their strategies.
3. Why Aren’t Sharp Traders Betting the Other Side to Normalize the Odds?
Some market participants have been facilitating trades for these accounts, allowing them to accumulate 40 million shares of Trump over the past 12 days. Additionally, certain traders have exploited arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and other betting platforms, which has pushed the price of Trump up across multiple sites.
However, sharp Polymarket traders have largely stayed on the sidelines recently. Why? Thanks to Polymarket being on the blockchain, we can track when these accounts place orders, how much cash they have left, and when they deposit additional funds. This transparency is crucial. Given that these accounts have recently deposited another $5.5 million USDC into Polymarket, there is reason to believe they may continue pushing Trump’s odds higher. As a result, many experienced traders are adopting a “wait and see” approach, ready to act when the time is right. This level of patience and strategic insight is key for any great trader.
With 18 days until the election, it will be fascinating to observe how these market dynamics continue to unfold. I’ll be closely monitoring the situation and how it affects both the odds and the broader election forecasting conversation.
How four accounts have shifted the election probabilities narrative
As the US Presidential Election approaches, all eyes are on who will become the next president - Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. In early October, many analysts believed both candidates had a relatively equal chance of winning. However, a significant shift in betting markets occurred following Trump’s rally in Butler, PA on October 6, with odds heavily moving in his favor.
On Polymarket, traders began noticing a sharp increase in bets on Trump. This shift was driven by a group of relatively new accounts, which have, as of today, deposited approximately $35 million USDC into Polymarket and deployed $33 million across election-related markets, always betting on Trump / Republican outcomes. This has sparked a lot of online speculation, leading to misconceptions. Below, I aim to clarify these points.
1. Can a Group of Accounts Really Shift the Market This Much?
While Polymarket’s US Presidential Election market might be the most liquid in terms of political betting today, it isn’t as deep as it appears. For example, the bid-ask spread sits at 58,657 x 60.6 - 60.7 x 35,429. This represents a relatively tight market, but one without significant liquidity. If someone were to place a market order for 1 million Trump shares right now, the odds would move from 60.7 to 62. Since October 6, these accounts have collectively bought over 40 million Trump shares, leading to the observed shift in Trump’s odds from 50.8 to 60.7.
2. Is Trump Simply Gaining Momentum, and Did These Accounts Predict That?
Possibly. Many market participants are investigating whether these accounts are related, and if so, who might be behind them. Understanding who might be behind these accounts can provide clues as to whether they have superior knowledge and resources when it comes to the election. Some users on X have criticized attempts to identify the individuals, arguing that it is unethical or illegal. However, understanding who your counterparty is can provide a competitive advantage, a tactic frequently employed in capital markets. For example, when a large block of shares enters the market, traders often ask, "Who is selling?" to inform their strategies.
3. Why Aren’t Sharp Traders Betting the Other Side to Normalize the Odds?
Some market participants have been facilitating trades for these accounts, allowing them to accumulate 40 million shares of Trump over the past 12 days. Additionally, certain traders have exploited arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and other betting platforms, which has pushed the price of Trump up across multiple sites.
However, sharp Polymarket traders have largely stayed on the sidelines recently. Why? Thanks to Polymarket being on the blockchain, we can track when these accounts place orders, how much cash they have left, and when they deposit additional funds. This transparency is crucial. Given that these accounts have recently deposited another $5.5 million USDC into Polymarket, there is reason to believe they may continue pushing Trump’s odds higher. As a result, many experienced traders are adopting a “wait and see” approach, ready to act when the time is right. This level of patience and strategic insight is key for any great trader.
With 18 days until the election, it will be fascinating to observe how these market dynamics continue to unfold. I’ll be closely monitoring the situation and how it affects both the odds and the broader election forecasting conversation.
Special thanks to Arkham Intelligence, Fozzy, Domah, and others for their assistance in compiling this information.
Disclaimer: I trade on Polymarket as a hobby.