I'm currently most of the way through Alex Epstein's Fossil Future, and I find the arguments within very convincing.
In (extreme) brevity, they are:
- Fossil Fuel use and the cheap energy it enables is responsible for unprecedented human flourishing for billions. Billions more need access to ever-increasing amounts of cheap energy to flourish.
- Any argument against fossil fuel use must argue that its side effects (CO2 warming the planet) overwhelm the good they do by providing cheap energy. These side effects must be so bad that it's worth compromising the safety and flourishing of billions of humans to curtail their use. Such an argument must also prove that those negative side effects are beyond what humanity is capable of adapting to or overcoming, given cheap energy provided by fossil fuels.
- No such argument is justifiable, given the current state of climate science.
Does anyone (preferably those who've read the book, although I don't want to restrict answers to just those people) have an opposing view/opinion, and if so why?
I'd like to do my intellectual homework on this one, and actively seek disagreement, given how convincing I've found the argument so far.
I think that's a very reasonable range, with more developed countires likely getting there by the 2050s and others a bit later.
Most countries and companies that have stated net-zero goals have set them in the 2040-2050 time frame. And that's not just because all the current leaders will be retired by then :-). All the ones that don't have aggressive commitments will take longer.
I think 2075 is a bit conservative actually? Economically speaking I would doubt any developed country is still building coal plants by 2030 or gas plants by 2040, the ones that do get built are already increasingly using designs chosen to be retrofittable for other fuels (hydrogen, methanol, biofuels, etc.), and more of them are being used for peaker plants and not baseload (lower utilization, so they make up a smaller fraction of generation relative to nameplate capacity). Plus the existing stock will mostly all be retired by the early 2050s. By the early 2030s I'd expect renewables + storage to be cheaper to build than anything but natural gas plants even in developing countries.
Like you said, permitting and reviews are some of the big limiters here. We are plausibly talking about 10,000-200,000 km2 of solar panels, worldwide, for a complete transition combined with continued economic growth. The Australian Outback might be one of the best places in the world to make green hydrogen, for example, but it's also one of the largest mostly-undeveloped wilderness regions remaining. Somehow arguments like "Yeah, but even more will be lost if we don't replace fossil fuels, and all the other options are worse" seem to lack the power to overcome project-specific objections.