Today's post, Bayesian Judo, was originally published on 31 July 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

You can have some fun with people whose anticipations get out of sync with what they believe they believe. This post recounts a conversation in which a theist had to backpedal when he realized that, by drawing an empirical inference from his religion, he had opened up his religion to empirical disproof.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, in which we're going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order, so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Belief in Belief, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.

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