If Putin values his life more than victory, then he will, at each time, follow the path which minimizes the probability of his death as outcome, as estimated by him.
For the time being he can follow any of 3 possible paths: Withdrawal_before_Ukr, Conv_War_on_Ukr, and Tac_nukes_on_Ukr (kaboom).
The Conv_War_on_Ukr path has 2 possible outcomes: Victory or Defeat_by_Ukr.
The Tac_nukes_on_Ukr path has 2 possible outcomes: Victory or Conv_NATO_strike. After Conv_NATO_strike, Putin can follow any of 3 possible subpaths:
Withdrawal_before_NATO,
Conv_war_on_NATO (plus ongoing Tac_nukes_on_Ukr), with 2 possible outcomes: Victory (close to 0) or Defeat_by_NATO_Conv (close to 1),
Tac_nukes_on_NATO (plus ongoing Tac_nukes_on_Ukr), with 2 possible outcomes: Victory (if NATO folds) or Strat_NATO_strike (KABOOM).
The Withdrawal and Defeat paths/outcomes have Putin's death as... (read more)
If Putin values his life more than victory, then he will, at each time, follow the path which minimizes the probability of his death as outcome, as estimated by him.
For the time being he can follow any of 3 possible paths: Withdrawal_before_Ukr, Conv_War_on_Ukr, and Tac_nukes_on_Ukr (kaboom).
The Conv_War_on_Ukr path has 2 possible outcomes: Victory or Defeat_by_Ukr.
The Tac_nukes_on_Ukr path has 2 possible outcomes: Victory or Conv_NATO_strike. After Conv_NATO_strike, Putin can follow any of 3 possible subpaths:
The Withdrawal and Defeat paths/outcomes have Putin's death as... (read more)