Adam Marsland
112
4
Adam Marsland has not written any posts yet.
Adam Marsland has not written any posts yet.
I think confirmation bias plays a role here. At the point where I think Bill probably went wrong (of course we will never know for sure), there's a junction of two basically identical jeep trails, neither of which are marked on the park map or most of the then-current trail maps (they are on the topo map). There's 3 or 4 different ways he might have gone down the wrong road - others have mentioned the two I put out there, there's a couple of other ways that are possible but less plausible so I didn't bother with them - but he should have noticed he was going south and not east,... (read more)
OK, I was gonna stay out of this, but I have to call b.s. (respectfully) on your take.
Solution 1 was indeed always the most likely but I have just as much an issue with the bias towards the unexpected solution as the bias towards the mundane one when the latter does not fit the facts as known.
Your comment is a perfect example of this. Your Solution 3 sounds comfortably mundane except that it's impossible. The ranger reported his information in real time, not after the fact. Solution 4 is likewise virtually impossible because of the timeline and the number of different agencies involved. So while they sound more plausible on the surface,... (read 617 more words →)
Ha, I'll never live the U-Haul down.
To be fair to myself, it was a thought experiment to try to reconcile all the conflicting witness statements and it was the only scenario I could come up with. It was part of a very exhaustive run down of the case that (in another section) also fairly accurately predicted the area Bill might be found and the reasons why he'd be there. To me, you have to go where the evidence takes you and you shouldn't pre-emptively shut down weird explanations that also happen to fit the facts. But...you shouldn't buy into them, either (or put them out in public, as I have learned)!
Really appreciate the shout out on this blog, and the commitment to reason and inquiry underlying it.
It was an interesting puzzle, I like desert hiking, and it was a challenge I needed in my life at that time.
I talk about it a little here (time stamped to the correct location):