Thanks; it makes sense that use cases like these would benefit, I just rarely have similar ones when thinking or writing.

I also use them rarely, fwiw. Maybe I'm missing some more productive use, but I've experimented a decent amount and have yet to find a way to make regular use even neutral (much less helpful) for my thinking or writing.

I don't know much about religion, but my impression is the Pope disagrees with your interpretation of Catholic doctrine, which seems like strong counterevidence. For example, see this quote:

“All religions are paths to God. I will use an analogy, they are like different languages that express the divine. But God is for everyone, and therefore, we are all God’s children.... There is only one God, and religions are like languages, paths to reach God. Some Sikh, some Muslim, some Hindu, some Christian."

And this one:

The pluralism and the diversity of religions, colour, sex, race and language are willed by God in His wisdom, through which He created human beings. This divine wisdom is the source from which the right to freedom of belief and the freedom to be different derives. Therefore, the fact that people are forced to adhere to a certain religion or culture must be rejected, as too the imposition of a cultural way of life that others do not accept.

I claim the phrasing in your first comment ("significant AI presence") and your second ("AI driven R&D") are pretty different—from my perspective, the former doesn't bear much on this argument, while the latter does. But I think little of the progress so far has resulted from AI-driven R&D?

Huh, this doesn't seem clear to me. It's tricky to debate what people used to be imagining, especially on topics where those people were talking past each other this much, but my impression was that the fast/discontinuous argument was that rapid, human-mostly-or-entirely-out-of-the-loop recursive self-improvement seemed plausible—not that earlier, non-self-improving systems wouldn't be useful.

Why do you think this? Recursive self-improvement isn't possible yet, so from my perspective it doesn't seem like we've encountered much evidence either way about how fast it might scale.

Given both my personal experience with LLMs and my reading of the role that empirical engagement has historically played in non-paradigmatic research, I tend to advocate for a methodology which incorporates immediate feedback loops with present day deep learning systems over the classical "philosophy -> math -> engineering" deconfusion/agent foundations paradigm.

I'm curious what your read of the history is, here? My impression is that most important paradigm-forming work so far has involved empirical feedback somehow, but often in ways exceedingly dissimilar from/illegible to prevailing scientific and engineering practice.

I have a hard time imagining scientists like e.g. Darwin, Carnot, or Shannon describing their work as depending much on "immediate feedback loops with present day" systems. So I'm curious whether you think PIBBSS would admit researchers like these into your program, were they around and pursuing similar strategies today?

For what it's worth, as someone in basically the position you describe—I struggle to imagine automated alignment working, mostly because of Godzilla-ish concerns—demos like these do not strike me as cruxy. I'm not sure what the cruxes are, exactly, but I'm guessing they're more about things like e.g. relative enthusiasm about prosaic alignment, relative likelihood of sharp left turn-type problems, etc., than about whether early automated demos are likely to work on early systems.

Maybe you want to call these concerns unserious too, but regardless I do think it's worth bearing in mind that early results like these might seem like stronger/more relevant evidence to people whose prior is that scaled-up versions of them would be meaningfully helpful for aligning a superintelligence.

I sympathize with the annoyance, but I think the response from the broader safety crowd (e.g., your Manifold market, substantive critiques and general ill-reception on LessWrong) has actually been pretty healthy overall; I think it's rare that peer review or other forms of community assessment work as well or quickly.

It's not a full conceptual history, but fwiw Boole does give a decent account of his own process and frustrations in the preface and first chapter of his book.