angmoh
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angmoh has not written any posts yet.
If your opponent makes bad assumptions or bad decisions, your decisions won't be rewarded properly, and it can take you a very long time indeed to figure out from first principles that that is happening. If you are playing with a player who thinks that "all reds" is a strong hand, it can take you many, many hands to figure out that they're overestimating their hands instead of just getting anomalously lucky with their hidden cards while everyone else folds!
(Is someone who knows more about poker than I do going to tell me that this specific example is wrong-ish? We'll find out!)
I'll take the bait since this is one of the cool... (read more)
You're right but I like the chef example anyway. Even if cherry picked, it does get at a core truth - this kind of intuition evolves in every field. I love the stories of old hands intuitively seeing things a mile away.
Sutskever's response to Dwarkesh in their interview was a convincing refutation of this argument for me:
Dwarkesh Patel
So you could argue that next-token prediction can only help us match human performance and maybe not surpass it? What would it take to surpass human performance?
Ilya Sutskever
I challenge the claim that next-token prediction cannot surpass human performance. On the surface, it looks like it cannot. It looks like if you just learn to imitate, to predict what people do, it means that you can only copy people. But here is a counter argument for why it might not be quite so. If your base neural net is smart enough, you just ask it — What... (read more)
"Dwarkesh chose excellent questions throughout, displaying an excellent sense of when to follow up and how, and when to pivot."
This is the basic essence of why Dwarkesh does such good interviews. He does the groundwork to be able to ask relevant and interesting questions, ie. actually reading their books/works, and seems to consistently have put actual thought into analysing the worldview of his subjects.
The unambitiousness of modern geoengineering in general is dismaying.
For my Australian perspective: in the early 1900s there were people discussing how make use of the massive tracts of desert wasteland than make up most of the outback (ie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradfield_Scheme). None of this stuff could be considered today - one tree getting chopped down is liable to make the news: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54700074
Hard to escape the conclusion that we should all go lie in a ditch so as to guarantee that no impact to anything occurs ever.
This seems about right. Sam is a bit of a cowboy and probably doesn't bother involving the board more than he absolutely has to.
Stefánsson's "The Fat of the Land" is not really worth reading for any scientific insight today, but it's entertaining early 1900s anthropology.
I don't have much of an opinion on any specific diet approach, but I can tell you my own experience with weight loss: I've always been between 15-25% bodyfat, yoyoing around. This routine isn't ideal, so I too am a 'victim' of the weight gain phenomenon.
I have no satisfying answers for "why are we getting fatter" or "what makes caloric deficits so hard to maintain". I appreciate the diet blogging community that tries to tackle these questions with citizen science.
I assume you're familiar with Vilhjálmur Stefánsson's work if you are interested in low protein carnivore diets, but I was really was surprised to see how similar the 'ex150' sounds compared to the classic ~80:20 fat:protein experiments. These aren't really new ideas - although I'm sure there's a lot more information available on the details.
Anyway, dieting seems like something where while people on average fail, you do see some individual successes, so it's worth poking around the edges and giving things a go. It's always nice to see results from the coalface.
Ultimately the new GLP-1 agonist weightloss drugs seem to be awesome by both data and anecdata. So the food composition experimentation might fade away a bit over the next few years for the express purpose of weight loss.
Good post.
For Westerners looking to get a palatable foothold on the priorities and viewpoints of the CCP (and Xi), I endorse "The Avoidable War" written last year by Kevin Rudd (former Prime Minister of Australia, speaks mandarin, has worked in China, loads of diplomatic experience - imo about as good of a person that exists to interpret Chinese grand strategy and explain it from a Western viewpoint). The book is (imo, for a politician), impressively objective in its analysis.
Some good stuff in there explaining the nature of Chinese cynicism about foreign motivations that echoes some of what is written in this post, but with a bit more historical background and strategic context.
Thanks for the article - very clear and informative. I'll share my own experience, which was partially inspired by your post. For history I have probably been between 15-25 bf% my whole adult life, oscillating over the years depending on motivation.
I have been on a diet for 2 months conventionally, and began taking retatrutide the last 2 weeks to dodge the negatives of being hungry all the time. I can report;
- Dosage: 1mg 2x week.
- Interest in food immediately and completely cratering. This lead to similar concerns with eating too little. My caloric intake has dropped a lot compared to dieting normally - from ~750 daily calorie deficit to around ~1.5k
- Less fatigue dispite lower
... (read more)