[Crossposted from EA Forum]
This is a linkpost with a summary of the key parts of Caleb’s new paper and its implications for EAs. You can read the original on arXiv here.
TL;DR
This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention. Using a modified neoclassical growth model calibrated to contemporary AI timeline forecasts, I find that even moderate assumptions about wealth-based allocation of AI labor generate substantial increases in pre-TAI interest rates. Under baseline... (read 4848 more words →)