Thanks. By the way, the "chatification" of the mind is a real problem. It's an example of reverse alignment: humans are more alignable than AI (we are gullible), so during interactions with AI, human goals will drift more quickly than AI goals. In the end, we get perfect alignment: humans will want paperclips.

For the outside view: Imagine that an outside observer uses a fair coin to observe one of two rooms (assuming merging in the red room has happened). They will observe either a red room or a green room, with a copy in each. However, the observer who was copied has different chances of observing the green and red rooms. Even if the outside observer has access to the entire current state of the world (but not the character of mixing of the paths in the past), they can't determine the copied observer's subjective chances. This implies that subjective unmeasurable probabilities are real.

Even without merging, an outside observer will observe three rooms with equal 1/3 probability for each, while an insider will observe room 1 with 1/2 probability. In cases of multiple sequential copying events, the subjective probability for the last copy becomes extremely small, making the difference between outside and inside perspectives significant.

When I spoke about the similarity with the Sleeping Beauty problem, I meant its typical interpretation. It's an important contribution to recognize that Monday-tails and Tuesday-tails are not independent events.

However, I have an impression that this may result in a paradoxical two-thirder solution: In it, Sleeping Beauty updates only once – recognizing that there are two more chances to be in tails. But she doesn't update again upon knowing it's Monday, as Monday-tails and Tuesday-tails are the same event. In that case, despite knowing it's Monday, she maintains a 2/3 credence that she's in the tails world. This is technically equivalent to the 'future anthropic shadow' or anti-doomsday argument – the belief that one is now in the world with the longest possible survival.

Thanks for your thoughtful answer.

To achieve magic, we need the ability to merge minds, which can be easily done with programs and doesn't require anything quantum. If we merge 21 and 1, both will be in the same red room after awakening. If awakening in the red room means getting 100 USD, and the green room means losing it, then the machine will be profitable from the subjective point of view of the mind which enters it. Or we can just turn off 21 without awakening, in which case we will get 1/3 and 2/3 chances for green and red.

The interesting question here is whether this can be replicated at the quantum level (we know there is a way to get quantum magic in MWI, and it is quantum suicide with money prizes, but I am interested in a more subtle probability shift where all variants remain). If yes, such ability may naturally evolve via quantum Darwinism because it would give an enormous fitness advantage – I will write a separate post about this.

Now the next interesting thing: If I look at the experiment from outside, I will give all three variants 1/3, but from inside it will be 1/4, 1/4, and 1/2. The probability distribution is exactly the same as in Sleeping Beauty, and likely both experiments are isomorphic. In the SB experiment, there are two different ways of "copying": first is the coin and second is awakenings with amnesia, which complicates things.

Identity is indeed confusing. Interestingly, in the art world, path-based identity is used to define identity, that is, the provenance of artworks = history of ownership. Blockchain is also an example of path-based identity. Also, in path-based identity, the Ship of Theseus remains the same.

There is a strange correlation between paradox of young Sun (it had lower luminosity) and stable Earth temperature which was provided by higher greenhouse effect. As sun goes brighter, CO2 declined. It was even analyses as evidence of anthropic effects. 

 

In his article "The Anthropic Principle in Cosmology and Geology" [Shcherbitsky, 1999], A. S. Shcherbakov thoroughly examines the anthropic principle's effect using the historical dynamics of Earth's atmosphere as an example. He writes: "It is known that geological evolution proceeds within an oscillatory regime. Its extreme points correspond to two states, known as the 'hot planet' and 'white planet'... The 'hot planet' situation occurs when large volumes of gaseous components, primarily carbon dioxide, are released from Earth's mantle...

As calculations show, the gradual evaporation of ocean water just 10 meters deep can create such greenhouse conditions that water begins to boil. This process continues without additional heat input. The endpoint of this process is the boiling away of the oceans, with near-surface temperatures and pressures rising to hundreds of atmospheres and degrees... Geological evidence indicates that Earth has four times come very close to total glaciation. An equal number of times, it has stopped short of ocean evaporation. Why did neither occur? There seems to be no common and unified saving cause. Instead, each time reveals a single and always unique circumstance. It is precisely when attempting to explain these that geological texts begin to show familiar phrases like '...extremely low probability,' 'if this geological factor had varied by a small fraction,' etc...

In the fundamental monograph 'History of the Atmosphere' [Budyko, 1985], there is discussion of an inexplicable correlation between three phenomena: solar activity rhythms, mantle degassing stages, and the evolution of life. 'The correspondence between atmospheric physicochemical regime fluctuations and biosphere development needs can only be explained by random coordination of direction and speed of unrelated processes - solar evolution and Earth's evolution. Since the probability of such coordination is exceptionally small, this leads to the conclusion about the exceptional rarity of life (especially its higher forms) in the Universe.'"

Quantum immortality and gun jammed do not contradict each other: for example, if we survive 10 rounds failures because of QI, we most likely survive only on those timelines where gun is broken. So both QI and gun jamming can be true and support one another and there is no contradiction.

One problem here is that quantum immortality and angel immortality eventually merges: for example, if we survive 10 LHC failures because of QI, we most likely survive only on those timelines where some alien stops LHC. So both QI and angel immortality can be true and support one another and there is no contradiction. 

I know this post and have two problems with it: what they call 'anthropic shadow" is not proper term as Bostrom defined anthropic shadow as underestimation of past risks based on the fact of survival in his article this the same name. But it's ok. 

The more serious problem is that quantum immortality and angel immortality eventually merges: for example, if we survive 10 LHC failures because of QI, we most likely survive only on those timeline where some alien stops LHC. So both QI and angel immortality can be true and support one another and there is no contradiction. 

Check my new post which favors the longest and thickest timelines https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hB2CTaxqJAeh5jdfF/quantum-immortality-a-perspective-if-ai-doomers-are-probably?commentId=aAzrogWBqtFDqMMpp

A sad thing is that most of life moments are like this 30-minutes intervals - we forget most life events, they are like dead ends. 

More generally, type-copies of me still matter for me.