60+ Possible Futures
Introduction I have compiled a list of possible future scenarios. I hope this list is useful in two ways: * As a way to make your own thinking about the future more explicit; how much probability mass do you put on each possible future? * As a menu of options to choose from; which of these futures do we want to make more likely? This list is just a brainstorm, and I encourage readers to write any missing but probable futures in the comments. I will add any scenarios that do not substantially overlap with existing items and which I subjectively estimate as having at least a 0.01% probability of happening to the list (with attribution). I have divided the possible futures into the following categories: * Futures without AGI, because we prevent building it * Futures without AGI, because we go extinct in another way * Futures without AGI, because we take a different path * Futures without AGI, because of strange factors * Futures with AGI, in which we die * Futures with AGI, in which we survive, and things are somewhat normal * Futures with AGI, in which we survive, but we're very different humans * Futures with AGI, in which we survive, and the universe gets optimized Futures without AGI Because we prevent building it * Successful Treaty: Humanity figures out that building AGI would be super-dangerous. After a long negotiation between world leaders, they succeed in agreeing on a FLOP quotum, which is far under the limit for potentially dangerous AGI. This policy is strongly enforced and prevents any individual or organization from developing AGI. * Surveillance: A world government is instantiated that recognizes that AGI would be dangerous. They ban AGI research and install an Orwellian surveillance machine that records and analyses every keystroke, voice command, and research meeting. This successfully prevents AGI from being created. * Regulation: Humanity enforces strong regulations on AI, mostly in order to combat non-existential risks such a
It's funny how this is like a reverse Searle's Chinese room. A system meant to just shuffle some tokens around can't help but understand its meaning!