Bojadła
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Bojadła has not written any posts yet.
You said that you believe that the AI bubble is going to burst in the next few months. Could you phrase that as a testable prediction? For example, you're 80% sure that in 6 months, the stock market price of Nvidia will be 80% of what it is today. This would help me understand your prediction better. Different people have different views on what "pretty certain" and "burst" means. I just want a clarification. I don't want to argue about the prediction.
You asked people to try resolving the problem on their own. So here is my answer before I read further. I was motivated to find a reason for the doomsday math to be incorrect by your prompt.
I felt the mistake was the hidden ambiguity of this statement:
Assuming that you are a random person among all the people destined to be born.
How do we randomly sample the person? Imagine you had to code this as a simulation in Python. Which of the following algorithms does your program follow?
Update?
Invariably, within 10 minutes, I receive messages from coworkers congratulating me on my boldness. You asked him? That question? So brave!
How do you respond to those messages?
Could you make it more clear how you would change the original Harris market to avoid the problem? I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "base question and a conjunctive market". I figure you're talking about the "other" option in the market you link, which prevents N/A. But how do you add that to the Harris market? Is it just adding one more option "Another person not listed here is nominee and Harris wins"?
I read your post but didn't understand it immediately. After thinking about it, I wrote what I feel the main points are in my own words. Maybe this makes it more clear to others too. Or maybe the OP will comment that I misunderstood something.
The "Harris market" can be seen as (is functionally equivalent to) a collection of markets. Each market has the following form:
Would Harris win, if {person} were her Vice Presidential nominee in 2024?
Each market resolves as follows:
Each market is independent. I mean this in the sense that there... (read more)
I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.
If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one... (read more)
The bet has been lost. The merge wasn't allowed. https://archive.ph/MDYWF
The share price of Spirit Airlines (NYSE: save) dropped to 50%.
I consider it unlikely that my interactions with ChatGPT 3.5 (that led to my original post) played a significant role as training data that helped make ChatGPT 4 so much better.
Why do you consider it unlikely?
If I was good at memorization (model parameter size) but bad at reasoning then your original post showing up in my training data would help me.
I'm also curious how much of the improvement comes from improvements to the hidden and secret prompt that Openai adds to your Chatgpt interactions. Unfortunately we can't test that.
What is/was your total monetary compensation at both jobs? Or if you don't want want to say absolute numbers, what is the relative change in compensation?