I read your post but didn't understand it immediately. After thinking about it, I wrote what I feel the main points are in my own words. Maybe this makes it more clear to others too. Or maybe the OP will comment that I misunderstood something.
The "Harris market" can be seen as (is functionally equivalent to) a collection of markets. Each market has the following form:
Would Harris win, if {person} were her Vice Presidential nominee in 2024?
Each market resolves as follows:
I agree and I am putting my money where my mouth is.
I will play this game under the rules linked in the OP with me as the gatekeeper and anyone as the AI. I will bet at odds 10:1 (favorable to you) that I will not let the AI out. The minimum bet is my 10 k USD against your 1 k USD and the maximum bet my 100 k USD against your 10 k USD. We will use a mutually accepted LW community member as referee.
If you believe you have at least a 10% chance of making me let the AI out, you should take this bet. I predict no one will take me up on it.
I speculate that the ...
The bet has been lost. The merge wasn't allowed. https://archive.ph/MDYWF
The share price of Spirit Airlines (NYSE: save) dropped to 50%.
I consider it unlikely that my interactions with ChatGPT 3.5 (that led to my original post) played a significant role as training data that helped make ChatGPT 4 so much better.
Why do you consider it unlikely?
If I was good at memorization (model parameter size) but bad at reasoning then your original post showing up in my training data would help me.
I'm also curious how much of the improvement comes from improvements to the hidden and secret prompt that Openai adds to your Chatgpt interactions. Unfortunately we can't test that.
Also, to be clear, nothing in this post constitutes investment advice or legal advice.
I often see this phrase in online posts related to investment, legal, medical advice. Why is it there? These posts obviously contain investment/legal/medical advice. Why are they claiming they don't?
I guess that the answer is related to some technical meaning of the word "advice", which is different from its normal language meaning. I guess there is some law that forbids you from giving "advice". I would like to know more details.
Edit: This question was answered in a p...
You are implying that it is hard to get Samsung expose. Why? On their website [1] they list several ISINs. Some of them I can buy in through my usual broker. They aren't special.
[1] https://www.samsung.com/global/ir/stock-information/listing-Info/
Are you no longer updating the libsyn version? The most recent episode there is from August 2022 while the other sites have newer episodes.
The link to the 36 questions is paywalled. I am pasting them here.
It is 2022-10-16, roughly one year after the post was made. The S&P 500 has not dropped below 3029 at any point. It is currently at its lowest value since the post was made at 3583.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview
You can go unbelievably far with the book The Mind Illuminated, that was my primary ressource and generally considered the best way to start, the book describes a 10-stage journey from complete noob to meditative virtuosity, with detailed instructions about the pitfalls and goals of each stage. For any questions you might have the subreddit r/themindilluminated is very active and you can quickly get answers if you post there. The subreddit r/streamentry is also a place for "serious meditators", in the sense of people who don't just meditate for stress reli...
This might be "optimal given your state of knowledge about ROB" but it isn't "guaranteed to succeed more than 1/2 of the time". For example:
My prior is that Rob always picks a positive and a negative number.
Actually Rob always picks two positive numbers.
Thus when we play the game I always observe a positive number, guess that it is the larger number and have a 0.5 probability of winning. 0.5 is not greater than 0.5
Thank you for this answer. You also helped make another point of confusion clearer: When I read the op I wasn't sure what the interpretation of number theory is. There must be one or the incompleteness theorem wouldn't apply but what is it?
Based on your comment here I understand this better and it makes more sense why people might disagree about for example the continuum hypothesis being "reasonable". While mostly everyone agrees on the standard ZFC axioms not everyone agrees on the interpretation of ZFC.
Then there must also be hardliners who take ZFC as t...
I'd like to use this post to ask a question I've had for a while about the incompleteness theorem and the halting problem but never had a good chance to ask.
When I first heard that that any sufficiently rich formal system, together with an interpretation, has strings which are true but unprovable or that it is not possible to determine whether a program halts, this felt like an amazing and important discovery. But when I think more about the standard proof of the halting problem, or the hear this explanation of incompleteness theorem or the English "this s...
Look for custom form fitting earplugs. I find the generic throwaway ones uncomfortable and wouldn't be able to sleep with them. Custom ones are made based on a mold of your ear and fit perfectly and are more expensive. The ones I have fit snugly enough that I feel no discomfort wearing them in general and only a little when sleeping on my side (with pressure on my ear through the pillow). I've slept with them 5 days of the week for the last half year which has improved my sleep significantly because I am very sensitive to noise. They also work well when traveling.
Could you make it more clear how you would change the original Harris market to avoid the problem? I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "base question and a conjunctive market". I figure you're talking about the "other" option in the market you link, which prevents N/A. But how do you add that to the Harris market? Is it just adding one more option "Another person not listed here is nominee and Harris wins"?