In fact this talk and the others in the same series have been transcribed and published as a book: “The character of physical law”; here is a direct pdf link.
On the FOM list, he writes:
Terrence Tao, at http://golem.ph.utexas.edu/category/2011/09/ and independently Daniel Tausk (private communication) have found an irreparable error in my outline. (...)
(...) I withdraw my claim.
The consistency of P remains an open problem.
Do you know Jon Williamson's work? It seems to give an answer to your question (but I've not read it yet). Here's the first paragraph of Section 9.1 “Mental yet Objective” of his book “Bayesian Nets and Causality”:
Here's a link to his papers on causality. At least the fifth, “Causality”, contains an introduction to epistemic causality.