Upvoted entire ancestor tree, for similar reasons.

This additional point is controversial even here?

My prior for the probability of winning the lottery by fraud

What's your secret? ;)

Some people also think the ability to argue and selectively not comprehend arguments arose due to runaway sexual selection for ability to manipulate and resist manipulation.

I'm giving this one a rating of 8. Effective, but not quite bullet proof. At least it provides a significant roadblock before one form of procrastination.

What should I have learned from your link to Updateless Decision Theory that causes me to suspect that EU maximizing with Bayesian updating on a universal prior is wrong?

From what I can glean from the UDT descriptions it seems that UDT defines 'updating' to include things that I would prefer to describe as 'naive updating', 'updating wrong' or 'updating the wrong thing'.