Thanks for writing this! I'm glad to see my post getting engagement, and I wish I'd joined the discussion here sooner.
I feel like my argument got a strawmanned (and I don't think you did that intentionally). I fully agree with this bit:
"Methods like the above will result in better probability estimates than if we acted as though we knew nothing at all."
I think it's entirely reasonable for someone to say: "I feel safe walking out the door because I think there's an extremely low probability that Zeus will strike me down with a thunderbolt when I walk outside."
What I object to is the idea that reasonable people do (or in some... (read more)
Hi Michael,
Thanks for writing this! I'm glad to see my post getting engagement, and I wish I'd joined the discussion here sooner.
I feel like my argument got a strawmanned (and I don't think you did that intentionally). I fully agree with this bit:
I think it's entirely reasonable for someone to say: "I feel safe walking out the door because I think there's an extremely low probability that Zeus will strike me down with a thunderbolt when I walk outside."
What I object to is the idea that reasonable people do (or in some... (read more)