This is somewhat a response to the Dying with Dignity post. Rationalist should win. If you are taking actions that lead to failure, you aren’t being rational, you aren’t playing for dignity points, you are losing. (More applause lights here) But the core argument needs to be addressed. AI alignment...
The Summer Program for Applied Rationality and Cognition (SPARC) is a camp intended for really bright high school students to get together and become more “agenty.” It was originally spun up by people around CFAR to get math students interested in AI alignment and EA, though the focus has now...
I notice that you cite Freedom House, and Richard Hanania goes into why that NGO in particular is pretty institutionally captured and a biased source. Citing Freedom house is akin to circular reasoning or is too close for comfort with regards to the question of "Democracy". (link) Also, for better or worse every institution of the US is very liberal, including the government (link) so it's hard to imagine how in any real sense the US could become an actual right wing dictatorship.
Furthermore,"The Dictator's Handbook" actually researches this exact question, with an eye toward selectorate theory, on how stable democracies vs dictatorships are, and actually digs into the numbers... (read more)
Was extremely enjoyable. Any plans for more?
This on why quitting sometimes backfires: https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/01/quitting/
Huh. I found your forecasting newsletter via LessWrong, and then subscribed to the substack's RSS feed? Which probably made me less likely to open it/see it in LessWrong? Dunno. Maybe your LessWrong traffic moved to substack? (sample size=1)
Yeah. Why I said "generally." Obviously if you emulate Stalin bad things will happen. Slightly off topic but I'd say those leader's weren't "unconstrained" and revealed something about human nature, but were constrained as any ruler and had to follow the Dictator's Handbook to stay in power.
This is somewhat a response to the Dying with Dignity post.
Rationalist should win. If you are taking actions that lead to failure, you aren’t being rational, you aren’t playing for dignity points, you are losing. (More applause lights here)
But the core argument needs to be addressed. AI alignment looks really hard. We have more unsolved problems than you can shake a stick at (here, here, etc.) and it seems there are good reasons to think that AGI will by default be unaligned. (Mind-space is big after all) The argument continues. Currently, we have more money than ideas. We’re trying everything we can think of, nobody has any clear solutions or... (read 1289 more words →)
The Summer Program for Applied Rationality and Cognition (SPARC) is a camp intended for really bright high school students to get together and become more “agenty.” It was originally spun up by people around CFAR to get math students interested in AI alignment and EA, though the focus has now expanded to include more than that. I attended SPARC last year, and it was sufficiently incredible that I want to bring the news to any high schoolers here that read Lesswrong.
Please apply – You won’t regret it!
As somebody who was and still is a frequent reader of LessWrong, it might not be at first apparent that getting to interact with others your... (read more)
Hi everyone! I wanted to let you know that our next meetup is scheduled for 26 February - same time, same place (1 PM at https://what3words.com/drank.rare.employ). We'll have an exercise/discussion similar to last time. I'm looking forward to seeing you all there!
Move to New Hampshire. Join the Free State Project. I'm only slightly kidding. For national politics, a huge amount of people dedicate ginormous amounts of attention too it and because of that there's not much slack for an individual person to affect much. Local politics on the other hand, people barely care about. Pull the rope sideways and all that. (https://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/03/tug-sideways.html) Apparently, something like 3000 libertarians have been able to accomplish all this: https://twitter.com/FreeStateNH/status/1476951307315556352?cxt=HHwWgMC98fDYl_8oAAAA just this year. The movement has elected 40 of their own members to the senate. (Out of 300ish) So a sizable minority that is vocal can have a huge impact on local politics. And furthermore, another 1000... (read more)
Silly question warning.
You think that when an AI performs a bad action, (say remove the diamond) the AI has to have knowledge that the diamond is in fact no longer there. Even when the camera shows the diamond is (falsely) there and the human confirms that the diamond is there.
You call this ELK
You want the human to have access to this knowledge, as this is useful to choosing decisions that the human wants.
This is hard. So you have people propose how to do this.
And then people try to explain why that strategy wouldn't work.
Rinse and repeat.
Once you have a proposal that nobody is able to show doesn't work.... profit?
Correct any misunderstandings in my basic overview above.
Continuing with the pattern, our next meetup would be Saturday, Nov 13. @Connor /CitizenTen won't be able to make it, so Zach offered to help coordinate. We'll meet at the same place as last time: Bird Park (here, at least initially: https://what3words.com/judge.salad.older) and the same time: 1pm PT.
Separately, Zach volunteered to help put together a small activity to try to encourage interesting conversations. We can pilot it at this next meetup, if there's interest. (Like any pilot, we can bail on it if it doesn't seem to be working.) Elevator pitch: A game where you answer questions to show how well you know someone — except that you just met them, and... (read more)
Hmmm... It seems that someone has thought of doing the exact same thing? Though considering the digging I had to go to find it, it should be more prominent.
https://wiki.lesswrong.com/images/c/ca/How_to_Run_a_Successful_Less_Wrong_Meetup_Group.pdf
Short of "a foreign power or going bankrupt." Germany was forced to pay for all damages that occurred during WW1. They were pretty bankrupt as countries go. And then the great depression happened. So I think Germany counts as democratic backsliding on account of "going bankrupt." And it doesn't claim all democracies. Just democracies that reach a large enough numbers of keys.