Cosmos

habryka

Hey Everyone!

As part of working on dialogues over the last few weeks I've asked a bunch of people what kind of conversations they would be most interested in reading, and one of the most common one has been "I would really like to read a bunch of people trying to figure out how to construct a portfolio that goes well when AGI becomes a bigger deal".

You are three people who would be reasonably high on my list to figure this out with, and so here we are. Not because you are world experts at this, but because I trust your general reasoning a bunch (I know Noah less well, but trust Will

... (read 9422 more words →)

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Replying toClarifying the palatability theory of obesity

Cosmos4y

Clarifying the palatability theory of obesity

“we should be clear about what observations his theory strongly predicts, and rapid weight loss on unpalatable diets is just not one of them.”

It is worth noting that Guyenet sells a diet plan, which includes a bland food diet as a weight loss strategy, as well as exercise (which he has claimed is ineffective/unrelated to weight loss): https://www.humanos.me/programs/ideal-weight-program

Replying toMIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion

Cosmos5y

MIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion

Brief note: the 5% unearned income tax in NH is I believe only interest and dividend income, not capital gains. Obviously having lots of dividend income from stocks would be slightly less attractive, but at least for now most crypto gains are in capital appreciation. As the ecosystem switches more to staking and such and we don’t see huge bubbles maybe that calculus will change.

Replying toMIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion

Cosmos5y

MIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion

We recently moved to Reno, and I think it does better on some metrics than others.

It’s much more affordable and free to build if you want to do your own custom thing. Prices are rising a lot because folks are fleeing CA to move here, and that makes the locals unhappy (and could generate future tech blow back potentially), but being able to build more housing will eventually help. I could see traffic becoming an issue eventually, but right now there isn’t anywhere in the city that’s >30 drive away, which is mind blowing to me! Since it’s much easier to build here, and find large swaths of property (though securing water... (read more)

Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?

Cosmos

12y

Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.

Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.

This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!

So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?

Replying toLess Wrong Parents

Cosmos13y

Less Wrong Parents

I know, right?? laughs

Replying toMeetup report: How harmful is cannabis, and will you change your habits?

Cosmos13y

Meetup report: How harmful is cannabis, and will you change your habits?

Then someone pointed out that since we responded out loud, there may have been an anchoring effect here.

This is standard epistemic hygiene - have everyone come up with an answer quietly before saying it out loud. (I suspect our natural inclination against lying is enough to keep people honest.)

Link: Toward Non-Stupid, Non-Blank-Slatey Polyandry

Cosmos

13y

http://theviewfromhell.blogspot.com/2012/09/toward-non-stupid-non-blank-slatey.html

The author gives a shout out to Less Wrong as a community with a perpetually skewed gender ratio, which is precisely the conditions under which polyandry appears to thrive.

Discuss. :)

Replying toBayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

Cosmos14y

Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

To continue with the bias theme, how about confirmation bias? They settled on the most available theory that fits all the facts, and then it becomes part of their identity, they begin to rally the soldiers. Is their delusion that they are Jesus really that much less sticky than someone's political party?

Replying toBayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

Cosmos14y

Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

TDCS isn't depolarizing neurons with magnetism, it doesn't disable brain regions at all. Instead it is running a direct current across them. This appears to permanently increase or decrease its level of excitability. o_O

Replying toBayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

Cosmos14y

Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

Yvain, it seems like some of this is potentially answered by how this interacts with other cognitive biases present.

Re: specific delusions, when you have an entire class of equally-explanatory hypotheses, how do you choose between them? The availability heuristic! These hypotheses do have to come from somewhere inside the neural network after all. You could argue that availability is a form of "priors", but these "priors" are formed on the level of neurons themselves and not a specific brain region: some connection strengths are stronger than others.

I would not wish brain damage on anyone, but should one of us have that unfortunate circumstance befall us I would be extremely inclined to go... (read more)

Replying toBayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

Cosmos14y

Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders

I had the exact same thought myself back in 2008, so I asked an experimental psych professor about this. At the same, he said that the TMS devices that we had are somewhat wide-area and also induce considerable muscle activation. This doesn't matter very much when studying the occipital lobe, but for the prefrontal cortex you basically start scrunching up the person's face, which is fairly distracting. Maybe worth trying anyway.

I've wanted to get my hands on a TMS device for years. Building one at home does not seem particularly feasible, and the magnetism involved is probably dangerous for nearby metal/electronics...

Replying toTips for Starting Group Houses

Cosmos14y

Tips for Starting Group Houses

EDIT: now you can get a free credit score from https://www.creditkarma.com/ with no strings attached. Welcome to the future!

You can get a free credit report once/year here:

https://www.annualcreditreport.com/cra/index.jsp

This will give you your full credit history, but not an actual FICO score.

You can get a free FICO score by signing up for this trial:

http://www.myfico.com/

...and then printing up a copy and immediately cancelling it here:

https://www.myfico.com/help/contactus.aspx

In my own search, I used this free general rental application:

http://www.ezlandlordforms.com/documents/application_forms/

Summary of "How to Win Friends and Influence People"

Cosmos

14y

In the very back of Kaj's excellent How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup Group booklet, he has a recommended reading section, including the classic book How to Win Friends and Influence People.

It just so happens that not only have I read the book myself, but I have written up a concise summary of the core advice here. Kaj suggested that I post this on the discussion section because others might find it useful, so here you go!

I suspect that more people are willing to read a summary of a book from the 1930s than an actual book from the 1930s. What I will say about reading the long-form text is that it can be more useful for internalizing these concepts and giving examples of them. It is far too easy to abstractly know what you need to do, much harder to actually take action on those beliefs...

Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter

Cosmos

15y

It is perhaps the best-kept secret on Less Wrong that the New York City community has been meeting regularly for almost two years. For nearly a year we've been meeting weekly or more. The rest of this post is going to be a practical guide to the benefits of group rationality, but first I will do something that is still too rare on this blog: make it clear how strongly I feel about this. Before this community took off, I did not believe that life could be this much fun or that I could possibly achieve such a sustained level of happiness.

Being rational in an irrational world is incredibly lonely. Every interaction... (read 3171 more words →)

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Eliezer Yudkowsky and Michael Vassar at NYU, Thursday March 3rd

Cosmos

15y

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Michael Vassar are going to be speaking at NYU this Thursday, March 3rd, on the subject of SIAI and rationality. Any readers in the NYC area are encouraged to attend.

Details:

6-8 PM
Vanderbilt Hall, Room 220
40 Washington Square South

Food and drink will be provided. There will be a small reception at a nearby bar at the conclusion of the talk as well.

Even if you don't live here yourself, you can still show support by inviting anyone you know in the NYC area via the Facebook event.

Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases

Cosmos

15y

You may have heard about IARPA's Sirius Program, which is a proposal to develop serious games that would teach intelligence analysts to recognize and correct their cognitive biases. The intelligence community has a long history of interest in debiasing, and even produced a rationality handbook based on internal CIA publications from the 70's and 80's. Creating games which would systematically improve our thinking skills has enormous potential, and I would highly encourage the LW community to consider this as a potential way forward to encourage rationality more broadly.

While developing these particular games will require thought and programming, the proposal did inspire the NYC LW community to play a game of our own. ... (read 1689 more words →)

NYC Rationalist Community

Cosmos

16y

For those who don't yet know, there has been a thriving rationalist community in NYC since April 2009. We've been holding weekly meetups for the past several months now, and often have game nights, focused discussions, etc. For those of you who live in the area, and not yet involved, I highly encourage you to join the following two groups:

This Meetup group is our public face, which draws new members to the meetups.

This Google Group was our original method of coordination, and we still use it for private communication.

The reason I am posting this is because there has been interest by several members in sharing an apartment/loft, or even multiple apartments on... (read more)

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter

How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI

Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases

Summary of "How to Win Friends and Influence People"

Cosmos

Cosmos

How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI

Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?

Link: Toward Non-Stupid, Non-Blank-Slatey Polyandry

Summary of "How to Win Friends and Influence People"

Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Michael Vassar at NYU, Thursday March 3rd

Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases

Cosmos

Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter

How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI

Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases

Summary of "How to Win Friends and Influence People"

Cosmos

Cosmos

How to (hopefully ethically) make money off of AGI

Amanda Knox Redux: is Satoshi Nakamoto the real Satoshi Nakamoto?

Link: Toward Non-Stupid, Non-Blank-Slatey Polyandry

Summary of "How to Win Friends and Influence People"

Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Michael Vassar at NYU, Thursday March 3rd

Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases